Absent at the Creation? American Strategy and the Delusion of a Post-Trump Restoration

Publication Context: Foreign Affairs, July/August $2025$ , Volume $104$ , Number $4$ .
Authors: * Rebecca Lissner: Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Former Deputy Assistant to the President and Principal Deputy National Security Adviser to the Vice President during the Biden administration. * Mira Rapp-Hooper: Partner at The Asia Group and Visiting Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Former Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania and Director for Indo-Pacific Strategy at the U.S. National Security Council during the Biden administration.
Primary Thesis: The authors argue that the second term of Donald Trump has irrevocably shattered the old rules-based international order. They contend that the next administration (entering in January $2029$ ) cannot simply restore previous norms but must conduct a "zero-based" review of American foreign policy to build a strategy for a multipolar, post-primacy world.

First Term Characterization ( $2017$ - $2021$ ): * Trump's heterodox approach seemed to portend a transformation, yet prevailing institutions (alliances, groupings, and rules) largely endured. * The Biden administration views this era as an "aberration," allowing for a renewal of traditional elements of influence, such as active global leadership and defense of the rules-based order.
The Second Term Shift ( $2025$ onward): * Early actions on global trade, skepticism toward allies, and affection for adversaries have fundamental changed the U.S. role and image. * The authors assert there is "no going back" after January $2029$ . Thinking solely in terms of a "post-Trump inheritance" risks being overly reactive or reflexively restorationist.
Speed of Policy Change: The authors highlight that the scale of policy change possible in the first $100$ days of Trump’s second term demonstrates that the next president must move with similar alacrity.

Initial Success of "America is Back": * Allies initially aligned closely with the U.S., relieved that the Trump era appeared to have passed. * Coordination between China and Russia helped rally partners in Asia and Europe. * The response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demonstrated U.S. ability to provide military/intelligence assistance and isolate Russia from global finances.
Pandemic and Economic Context: * China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy and draconian $COVID-19$ response diminished the appeal of hedging strategies. * The U.S. post- $COVID$ economic recovery was the strongest among advanced industrialized economies.
Domestic Continuity and Constraints: * Passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the $CHIPS$ and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act suggested generational investments in competitiveness. * Despite these successes, the Biden administration prioritized restoration over reinvention. It failed to make fundamental shifts in military posture or readiness investments needed for the Indo-Pacific due to exhaustion from the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East starting in $2023$ .

The "Liberation Day" Tariffs: * Announced in April $2025$ , these tariffs targeted China with a levy of $125\%$ , exceeding all extreme forecasts. * A monthlong trade war ensued, leading to a fragile truce in Geneva that extracted zero concessions from Beijing.
Impact on Allies: * Allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam were not spared. A proposed $10\%$ baseline tariff makes "China plus one" diversification strategies (moving supply chains out of China) prohibitively expensive. * Indo-Pacific states are reconsidering their reliance on the U.S. as a guardian of the economic order.
Innovation and Technology: * Sectoral tariffs increase the cost of imported components, making U.S.-manufactured semiconductors less competitive. * The Trump administration rescinded Biden’s rules on AI chip exports, potentially allowing technology to reach competitors. * Cuts to clean energy, education, and basic research funding are cited as undermining long-term competitiveness.
Economic Indicators: * Analysts project a recession before the end of $2025$ . * Bond market volatility is calling the dollar's primacy into question, and the U.S. global credit rating has declined.

Definition: Based on accounting practices where one begins with a clean slate to justify every expense. In strategy, this means zeroing out assumptions about the U.S. role in the world.
Core Strategic Shifts: * From Geography to Ecosystems: Move away from just preventing a hostile power from dominating Eurasia to dominating technological ecosystems ( $AI$ , clean tech, quantum computing). * Regional Prioritization: Elevate Africa and Southeast Asia due to their digital economy potential. * Global Public Goods: Re-evaluate the U.S. role as the "preponderant provider" of goods like freedom of navigation (Horn of Africa, Red Sea, South China Sea) and identify where other countries can take responsibility. * Values vs. Principles: Move away from the "spread of democracy" to a "modest emphasis on values," centering partnerships on shared principles to include non-democracies.

Security Enabler vs. Provider: The U.S. should shift from being a wholesale security provider to a security enabler. * Allies should assume more responsibility for conventional deterrence. * The U.S. would support them through weapons sales, co-production, and intelligence collaboration.
Frontline Prioritization: Concentrate military presence in a small number of frontline allies: Japan, high-capability Asian partners, the Philippines, Poland, South Korea, and the Baltic states.
New Alliance Bargains: Integrate economic and technological cooperation into security arrangements, such as harmonizing industrial policy and aligning climate/tax policies.