Changes in the Exchange Rate

Reasons for appreciation in the exchange rate

Demand may shift outward because:

  • Increase in relative interest rates - this means that there are higher returns on savings in the UK, therefore, other countries sll their currency in exchange for pounds so the demand for pounds increases.

  • Speculators anticipate an increase in the value of the pound - people see higher returns from the pound, therefore, they move their money into the pound so demand increases.

  • Increase in FDI - i.e. MNCs placing their firms into a country and transactions for set-up costs cause upward demand for the pound.

  • Increases in incomes abroad - increase in disposable incomes abroad, increase in exports and an increase in demand for the pound as they exchange money to pay for imports.

  • Increase in competitiveness - unit labour costs decrease, inflation decreases, investment increases and firms perform better.

Reasons for depreciation in the exchange rate

Supply may shift outward because:

  • Decrease in the interest rate - fewer returns on savings, so people will sell their pounds so they can exchange it for a currency in a nation with a higher exchange rate.

  • MNCs moving away from the UK

  • Speculators anticipate a fall in the £ - less profitable, so investors take their money out of the pound

  • Increase in domestic demand - increase in disposable income, individuals have more money to spend on imports, more pounds supplied to exchange for foreign currency.

Impact of Appreciation of the Exchange Rate

  • Lower growth - appreciation means that exports fall as they become more expensive, this causes a fall in domestic AD, as a reult growth falls and there is a current account deficit.