Context: Commentary on an essay by Jason Brownlee and Kenny Miao regarding democratic backsliding.
Key Assertion: Contemporary democracies are more resilient than often thought, and backsliding might not necessarily lead to autocracy as widely presumed.
Predictions and Theories
Jan-Werner Müller: Emphasizes skepticism in making predictions about political developments, particularly democracies.
Brownlee and Miao's Insights: Assert that fears of democratic collapse are exaggerated and mainly stem from historical misinterpretations.
Understanding Democratic Backsliding
Definitions:
Brownlee and Miao's Definition: "The state-led debilitation or elimination of any of the political institutions that sustain an existing democracy".
Political Institutions Discussed:
Legislatures
Electoral systems
Legal frameworks
Militaries
Political parties
Norm Erosion: Brownlee and Miao add that backsliding can involve norms weakening, creating ambiguity in definitions across literature.
Norm Erosion vs. Backsliding
Bermeo's Perspective:
Norm erosion is viewed as a precondition for backsliding rather than a direct form of it.
Weakening norms often result in the deconstruction of formal democratic systems.
Key Questions:
Whose norms are eroding?
What effects do these eroded norms have on democratic processes?
The role of elites in norm erosion is crucial—ordinary citizens' democratic values remain relatively unchanged since 2004 according to Larry Bartels.
Measurement Challenges in Backsliding Research
Variability in Measurement:
Studies show substantial discrepancies in measurement tools used for assessing backsliding, resulting in weak correlations among indicators.
Hans Lueders and Ellen Lust's study: Found an average pairwise correlation coefficient of only 0.33 among five indicators of backsliding.
Consequences of Measurement Variance:
Different definitions can lead to conflicting conclusions about the relationship between backsliding and democratic breakdown.
Strategic Inquiry and Practical Solutions
Aim for Broader Understanding:
Acknowledging diverse meanings and implications of backsliding is critical for effective assessment and strategy development.
Brownlee and Miao's Contributions: While they do not propose concrete methods for preventing democratic breakdown, their analysis on historical paths signals areas for further research.
They identify trends in executive takeovers versus military coups, noting that most electoral democracies remain stable despite rising executive takeovers.
Economic Factors in Backsliding
National Wealth and Backsliding:
Brownlee and Miao suggest a protective effect of national wealth on democracies above certain economic-development thresholds.
This claim may influence discussions on the necessity of foreign aid amidst rising economic distress.
Changing Nature of Economic Growth:
Questions are raised about the evolving implications of economic growth related to wealth concentration and de-industrialization.
Mechanisms linking classes and social groups to democratic governance may be changing.
Regional and Local Economic Impacts
Micro-Level Analyses:
The effects of local economies on normative democracy-related values warrant exploration.
Local economic conditions could affect tolerance, participation, and democratic resilience.
Multiparty Competition and Democratic Stability
Brownlee and Miao's Argument:
Emphasis on multiparty competition as a guardrail for democracy, arguing faster buildup compared to economic development.
Exploration of factors that allow backsliding executives to retain power while reflecting on the dynamics of political competition.
Dangers of Party Competition:
Potential splits in democratic opposition due to party competition might undermine democratic efforts.
Social media influences on party formation and election dynamics raise further inquiries regarding the stability of multipartism.
Call for Further Research
Next Steps:
Move from case counting to comparative analysis for in-depth understanding of backsliding mechanisms.
An empirical approach could enhance knowledge about the interactions of military, economic, and political factors.
Resistance Playbook:
Importance of developing strategies to counteract autocratization as proposed by Luca Tomini and colleagues.
Conclusion
Significance of Brownlee and Miao:
Their research paves the way for future tactical and academic explorations of democratic resilience versus backsliding.
Raises importance of accurate predictions in societal and political growth scenarios.