Navigating Digital Information: The Importance of Evidence

The Fundamental Role of Evidence in Information Evaluation

• The transition from childhood to adulthood involves a shift from accepting authority based on the phrase "Because I said so" to requiring convincing evidence for claims.
• In professional settings, such as asking a boss (e.g., Stan) for a raise, one must provide evidence of merit rather than relying on personal assertion.
• John Green notes humorously that he cannot afford raises due to his "fleet of lamborghinis," suggesting that employees must even know how to change the oil in a Lamborghini as a form of expertise or leverage.
• The same principles of evidence apply to navigating online information: reliable sources must provide solid, convincing evidence for their claims.
• The internet is frequently built on evidence that is "fine but doesn't actually prove the point."

Defining Evidence and Its Necessity

• Evaluation of online information requires asking three core questions:     1. Who said that?     2. Why did they say it?     3. What is the evidence?
• The credibility of any claim, even from a trustworthy source, depends on the evidence provided to back it up.
• Definition: Evidence can be any form of content—text, photos, videos, or data—that supports a claim and provides a rational reason to believe the claim is true.
• Requirement for Proof: If a source makes a factual claim rather than a subjective opinion, they are obligated to provide proof.

Case Study: The Failure of Evidence (Nathan Fielder Tweet)

• Comedian Nathan Fielder posted a classic tweet: "Out on the town having the time of my life with a bunch of friends. They're all just out of frame, laughing too."
• Evidence vs. Claim: The photo shows Fielder laughing while looking off-camera in a lonely selfie.
• The humor arises because the visual evidence does not support the claim that he is with friends.
• In a serious context, this discrepancy between claim and evidence results in misinformation or disinformation.

The Dangers of Evidence-Free Claims on Social Media

• Social media platforms allow users to share virtually any thought with the world, provided it is within certain technical limits (e.g., Twitter’s limit of $280$ characters).
• Examples of evidence-free claims include:     * Politicians attacking opponents on Facebook.     * Conspiracy theorists on YouTube claiming the Earth is flat.     * Celebrities on Instagram claiming weight loss via lollipops.     * Tumblr users labeling public figures as "problematic."
• The absence of evidence is an immediate reason for suspicion; without proof, there is no logical reason to believe a claim is true.

Anatomy of a Hoax: The "Spider From Hell" Case Study

• In the summer of $2018$, a Facebook post went viral, being shared $1.5 \times 10^0$ million times ($1500000$ times).
• The Post's Claims:     * A "New Deadly Spider" called "The Spider From Hell" was spreading across the $USA$.     * $5$ people purportedly died in one week due to its bite.     * The spider was allegedly first seen in South Carolina in July, then caused deaths in West Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi.     * The $U.S.$ Government was claimed to be working on an "anti-venom."
• Critical Analysis of Evidence:     * The source was an unverified, random Facebook user.     * No specific species name, biological data, or habitat information was provided.     * The geographic spread (SC to WV) bypassed Virginia without explanation.     * There were no links to reputable news stories regarding the alleged deaths.     * There was no proof of government intervention or antidote research.
• Verification: Snopes.com debunked the claim, finding no records of such deaths and noting that the original poster had a history of creating hoaxes.

Insufficient Evidence: The Distinction Between Weather and Climate

• The existence of evidence does not inherently verify a claim if that evidence is used incorrectly.
• Senator James Inhofe Example: In February $2015$, Sen. Inhofe brought a snowball onto the Senate floor to disprove global warming, despite scientists naming $2014$ as the warmest year on record.
• Logical Error: Inhofe used weather (short-term atmospheric events) as evidence against climate (long-term global trends).
• Fact: A snowball does not disprove climate change any more than a localized heat wave proves it; global data shows an overall trend of rising temperatures.

Confirmation Bias and Conspiracy Theories

• A $2017$ conspiracy theory on anonymous message boards claimed the $U.S.$ Department of Justice ($DOJ$) was investigating a global pedophile ring.
• The evidence provided was photos of Hillary Clinton, Chelsea Clinton, and Sen. John McCain wearing medical boots for foot injuries.
• Claim: The boots were hiding ankle monitors for an investigation.
• Reality: The photos only proved that feet are susceptible to injury, particularly as people age.
• Two critical questions for evaluating theories:     1. Does this info make sense, or am I making it make sense in my brain?     2. Does this info confirm my pre-existing world view, making me pre-disposed to believe it?

High-Quality Evidence: The Axios "Receipts" Model

• Reliable information is found through a search for reliable evidence.
• Case Study: Axios report titled "Climate change may boost pests, stress food supplies."
• Axios provided high-quality context and evidence by:     * Citing a study from researchers at the University of Washington, Stanford University, University of Vermont, and University of Colorado.     * Ensuring the study was published in Science, a well-respected peer-reviewed journal.     * Providing additional context from a Harvard study in a different peer-reviewed journal.     * Including commentary from a scientist not involved in the referenced studies.
• Lateral reading can be used to confirm if a journal like Science is credible.

Digital Platforms and Evidence: The Moon Landing Example

• Post Example: A viral post claiming the $1969$ moon landing was fake, linking to a video titled "Were the moon landings faked?"
• Evidence Evaluation:     * The video is from the channel "Alltime Conspiracies."     * The channel hosts unreliable content, such as videos on "$10$ real life vampires" (John Green clarifies there have only been $4$ historical vampires).     * The video is structured to leave questions unanswered rather than providing facts.
• Platform Intervention: YouTube now includes information panels linking to the Encyclopedia Britannica article on the Apollo Space Program to combat misinformation.
• Logical Counter-argument: A fake moon landing would require a conspiracy involving thousands of people, making it impossible to keep secret.

Relevance and Irrelevance in Argumentation

• Evidence may be reliable as a standalone fact but completely irrelevant to the claim being made.
• Scenario: A claim is made that e-cigarettes are safe for kids because they help adults with smoking cessation.
• Analysis: While e-cigarettes may assist in smoking cessation, this fact has no bearing on whether they are safe for children. The evidence is irrelevant to the specific claim.

Spurious Correlations: Correlation vs. Causation

• Spurious Correlation: An implied causal relationship between two events that are only coincidentally linked.
• Nicolas Cage Example: There is a strong correlation between the number of people who drown in pools annually and the number of films Nicolas Cage appears in during that same year. However, his movies do not cause drownings.
• The Vaccine/Autism Myth:     * Claim: Vaccines cause autism because both the number of recommended vaccines and the number of autism diagnoses have increased over the last few decades.     * Scientific Fact: Extensive research shows no link between vaccines and autism.     * Consequences: The spread of this spurious correlation led to a drop in vaccination rates and a measles outbreak in Europe in $2018$.

Practical and Ethical Implications of Evidence Interrogation

• Interrogating evidence is a matter of life and death.
• The quality of evidence directly impacts the quality of our decisions and public health outcomes (e.g., the prevalence of measles).
• Users must verify if evidence is reliable and if it actually supports the claim being made.