Post-Cold War Era and US Foreign Policy

Francis Fukuyama and the End of History

• 1992: The End of the Cold War
  • The Soviet Union collapses, signifying the end of the long struggle between:
    • The US and the Soviet Union for global domination.
    • Capitalism and socialism.
    • Tyranny and democracy.
  • The US emerges as the sole superpower.
  • Capitalism and democracy are triumphant.
• Fukuyama's Declaration
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union represents "the end of history."
  • Liberal, western, democratic capitalism is the ultimate and unchallenged ideology.
• Reality Check
  • History is not over; the post-Cold War world is more complicated than initially thought.
  • Ideological conflicts persist, challenging the notion of a triumphant center.

Stallone Movies as Cold War Allegories

• Mapping Stallone Franchises
  • Rocky and Rambo franchises as reflections of American foreign policy and cultural attitudes during the Cold War.
• Rocky Franchise
  • Rocky (1976): He loses, a motif of films in the 1970s.
  • Rocky II: He wins against Apollo Creed.
  • Rocky III: Defeats Mr. T, a racial allegory representing dangerous blackness.
  • Rocky IV:
    • Fights Ivan Drago, the big, bad, scary Russian.
    • A Cold War allegory where Drago represents the killing machine crafted by Russian scientists.
    • Rocky goes to Russia to train and fight Drago in Moscow.
    • Wins over the Russian crowd, symbolizing winning over the Russian people, not just defeating the Russian.
• Rambo Franchise
  • First Blood: About a maladjusted veteran wreaking vengeance on a local police department.
  • Rambo II: He goes back to Vietnam to fight it correctly and win it again, a fantasy of fixing past mistakes.
  • Rambo III: He goes to Afghanistan to help Americans win and support American allies by killing the Soviets.
    • Joins forces with Afghan rebels, the Mujahideen, who later become Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Key Takeaways and Complexities

• Understanding Complexity
  • It is important to understand the intricacies of foreign policies, different camps, and their objectives.
• American Foreign Policy in the 80s and 90s
  • American foreign policy and culture lacked nuance.
  • US foreign policy was a blunt instrument with limited understanding of complexities.
  • The idea of Rocky winning in Vietnam and Afghanistan reflects this lack of nuance.
• Politics of the Olympics
  • The Olympics were rooted in both international and domestic politics.
  • Examples:
    • 1968 Olympics: Black power salute.
    • 1976: Soviets beat Americans in basketball.
    • 1980: Americans beat Soviets in hockey (Miracle on Ice).
    • US boycotts the Moscow Olympics in 1980, with the Soviets boycotting in return.

Cold War Logic and Its Collapse

• Key Principles of Cold War Logic
  • Two camps: The Soviet camp and the US camp, starting in Berlin (East and West Berlin).
  • "You are either with us or against us."
  • Enemies of the Soviet Union are, by definition, US allies.
• Extension of Cold War Logic
  • Supporting the Greek government despite its flaws because they are fighting communists.
  • Supporting brutal military dictatorships as long as they are in the US camp.
  • "He's a son of a bitch, but at least he's our son of a bitch."
• Oversimplifications
  • The US failed to understand that the Soviets, the Chinese, and communism were different entities with their own tensions.
• Vietnam and Shifting Policies
  • Normalizing relations with China to exit Vietnam.
  • Recognizing potential stability brought by China in Asia.
• Conflicting Lessons from Vietnam
  • Political Lesson (Neoconservatives):
    • We weren't active or engaged enough; we should have committed more troops.
    • Escalation was working, but we gave up too soon.
    • Need an active and engaged military and an aggressive foreign policy.
    • Need to hide things better due to Watergate.
  • Military Lesson (Pentagon):
    • The war was unwinnable.
    • Avoid quagmires; have a clear, achievable objective and then withdraw.
    • Don't get confused by political ideology.

Reagan Era and Heightened Tensions

• Ratcheting Up Tension
  • Using strong language (e.g., "evil empire").
  • Escalating the arms race and ballistic missiles.
  • Focusing on the danger of the Soviet camp.
• European Clarity vs. Global Complexity
  • Clear divisions in Europe (East and West Germany, Eastern Bloc vs. Western Europe).
  • This clarity doesn't translate to other regions.

Regional Dynamics: Latin America and the Middle East

• Latin America in the 70s
  • Military dictatorships seen as preferable to instability.
  • Supporting military coups in Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.
  • Backing the Somoza family in Nicaragua since the 1930s.
• Middle East
  • New nations created after 1945 with arbitrarily drawn lines.
  • These nations faced tensions due to different ethnicities, cultures, religions, and languages.
  • Three approaches to establishing a nation:
    • Arab Nationalism: Defining the nation through Arab identity.
      • Examples: Nasserism in Egypt (nonaligned), Sadatism (pro-US), Ba'athism in Syria (pro-Soviet).
    • Military Dictatorships: Cloaked in Arab identity or socialism.
      • Examples: Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Saddam Hussein in Iraq.
    • Royal Families: Backed by the US for stability.
      • Examples: The Shah in Iran, Saudi Arabia.
• Non-Aligned Nations
  • India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh face wars, creating uncertainty for the US and the Soviets.

1979: Revolutions and Shifting Dynamics

• Nicaraguan Revolution
  • The collapse of the Somoza regime leads to the rise of the Sandinistas (anti-US).
  • The Contras (backed by the US) oppose the Sandinistas.
  • The US supports the Contras despite their terrible actions and drug trafficking.
• Iranian Revolution
  • The Shah is overthrown by an Islamic revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini.
  • Iran is deeply opposed to both American intervention and Soviet communism.
  • This creates a third camp, destabilizing the Cold War logic.
  • The US and the Soviets fear the expansion of Iranian influence.

The 1980s: Complicated Interventions

• Funding the Contras
  • Reagan wants to fund the Contras, but Congress is wary due to their actions.
  • The US invades Grenada to exert military influence.
  • The War Powers Act is evoked to limit presidential power.
  • The Boland Amendment prohibits the Reagan administration from funding the Contras.
• Middle East Conflicts
  • Civil war in Lebanon involves Syria, Iran, Egypt (Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas), and Israel.
  • The US sends marines, but withdraws after the marine barracks are bombed due to lack of a clear objective.
• Iran-Iraq War
  • The US supports Iraq to counter Iranian influence.
  • The US provides weapons to Saddam Hussein, leading to concerns about weapons of mass destruction.
  • The Soviets also funnel money into Iraq, fearing Iranian influence.
• Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
  • The Soviets invade Afghanistan, leading to resistance from the Mujahideen.
  • The Mujahideen are funded and trained by Iran and indirectly by the US.
• Iran-Contra Affair
  • The Reagan administration sells missiles to Iran and funnels the money to the Contras, violating the Boland Amendment.
  • Oliver North shreds documents and claims ignorance during congressional hearings.
  • The scandal is exposed, but most documents are destroyed, and everyone receives pardons.

Collapse of Cold War Logic

• 1989: The Logic Collapses
  • The convoluted mess of funding different factions makes no sense anymore.
  • The Berlin Wall falls as the logic of division collapses.
  • The government can't explain why travel is restricted.
  • The Soviet Union weakens due to its involvement in Afghanistan and the Chernobyl disaster.
• Reunification of Germany
  • East and West Germany reunite relatively peacefully.
  • Yugoslavia collapses into six nations, leading to wars and ethnic cleansing.
• End of the Soviet Camp
  • The Soviet Union collapses, but China remains.
  • The Chinese military crushes student protests in Tiananmen Square.
  • Tensions with China, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt persist but are no longer defined by Cold War logic.

Post-Cold War Interventions and Messy Politics

• Iraq Invades Kuwait
  • Iraq invades Kuwait, leading to massive American military intervention.
  • The objective is to liberate Kuwait, not topple Hussein.
  • The US military presence in Saudi Arabia angers those fighting the Soviet presence in Afghanistan.
  • The Mujahideen become the Taliban.
• Nineties Interventions
  • Military intervention with clear guidelines.
• Twenty-First Century
  • Reinvasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • Maps and borders remain relevant.
  • The guiding principles of the Cold War are gone, even though the logic was flawed to begin with.