Public Opinion: Measuring Americans' Opinions
Introduction to Public Opinion
Questions/Cues:
What is public opinion?
Why is measuring it essential in a democracy?
Notes:
In a democracy, citizens must have access to information about their elected representatives to hold them accountable through voting.
Elected representatives must understand their constituents’ preferences to achieve electoral success.
Public opinion refers to the sum of individual attitudes about government, policies, and issues.
A coherent and meaningful set of preferences is essential for measuring public opinion.
Learning Objectives
11.1 Define public opinion.
11.2 Describe the elements of a valid, scientific public opinion poll.
11.3 Explain how public opinion polling impacts elections and policymaking.
The Black Lives Matter Movement
Questions/Cues:
What event triggered the 2020 protests?
How did the public react to George Floyd's death?
Notes:
Triggering Event: On May 25, 2020, George Floyd was killed by police in Minneapolis after being accused of using a counterfeit bill.
Floyd’s death due to excessive use of force inspired widespread protests against systemic racism and police brutality across 140 cities in the U.S.
Public Reaction: Officer Derek Chauvin was fired and charged with second-degree murder; three other officers were charged with aiding and abetting.
Public Opinion on Racial Discrimination
Questions/Cues:
What is the historical context of the BLM hashtag?
How did perspectives shift by 2020?
Notes:
Historical Context: The hashtag #BlackLivesMatter originated in 2013 after the acquittal of George Zimmerman for the death of Trayvon Martin.
Shift in Perspectives: By 2020, a survey indicated that two-thirds of American adults supported the movement.
Pew Research revealed notable concerns among police officers regarding safety and job performance amid racial tension.
Influential Figures and Events
Questions/Cues:
What was the purpose of Colin Kaepernick’s protest?
How does political affiliation influence support for BLM?
Notes:
Colin Kaepernick's Protest: NFL quarterback who knelt during the national anthem in 2016 to draw attention to racial injustice.
Political and Social Division: Polls highlighted stark divisions: Democrats were significantly more supportive of BLM than Republicans.
Measuring Public Opinion
Questions/Cues:
What are the differences between focus groups and scientific polls?
What are common polling challenges?
Notes:
Focus Groups and Polls: Focus groups offer nuanced insights but lack representativeness. Scientific polls require random selection and a representative sample.
Polling Challenges:
Sampling Error: Expected variations in results, often calculated as .
Question Wording and Order: Phrasing and sequence can drastically affect responses.
Response Bias: Interviewer identity and lack of strong opinions (non-attitudes) can influence outcomes.
Types of Opinion Polls
Questions/Cues:
What is a benchmark poll vs. a tracking poll?
When are exit polls conducted?
Notes:
Mass Surveys: Usually 1,500$$ respondents to measure general population opinion.
Exit Polls: Conducted after voting to gather insights on voter motivations.
Benchmark Polls: Initial polling used to gauge candidate support at the start of a campaign.
Tracking Polls: Monitors shifts in public opinion throughout a campaign.
Implications for Policymaking
Questions/Cues:
Do representatives always follow public opinion?
Notes:
Responses: Understanding public opinion shapes legislative decisions, but Congress sometimes ignores sentiment (e.g., the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) due to political strategy.
Summary
Public opinion is a dynamic and critical element in American politics, formed by individual attitudes and measured through scientific polling. It influences campaign strategies, legislative decisions, and the accountability of democratic representatives. Events like the Black Lives Matter movement illustrate how public sentiment evolves and displays significant demographic and political divisions.