Cp - final
Lecture Overview
Title: What is Comparative Politics?
Instructor: Mathilde Emeriau
Semester: Fall 2024
Course Assessments
Final Exam (1/3 of final grade)
Date: December 16
Format: Short questions and one essay (choice of two topics)
Research Paper (1/3 of final grade)
Deadline: December 6, 6pm
Proposal: 500-word due on September 30, details on Moodle
Discussion Section Grade (1/3 of final grade)
Presentation of an academic paper
Participation graded
What is Politics?
Politics is the set of activities related to making decisions in groups or managing power relations among individuals, involving distribution of status or resources.
It encompasses the interactions of individuals as they cooperate, strategize, and maneuver within social contexts (Shepsle, 2010).
What is Comparative Politics?
Definition: A major subfield of political science focusing on political phenomena predominantly within-country relationships.
Other fields include political theory, international relations, formal theory, and political methodology.
Focus: The comparative method, which entails studying political systems and phenomena through comparison.
The Comparative Method
Developed by John Stuart Mill in "A System of Logic" (1843).
Methods:
Method of Agreement
Direct Method of Difference
Double Method of Agreement and Difference (Indirect Method)
Method of Residues
Method of Concomitant Variations
Key Concepts in Methodology
Deterministic Relationships
A relationship between a cause (C) and an effect (E) is deterministic if C always produces E.
Necessary Condition (CN): Must be present for E to occur.
Example: "No bourgeoisie, no democracy."
Sufficient Condition (CS): Its presence guarantees E occurs.
Example: "If there is a fire, then there will be smoke."
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions (CNS): Must both be present to ensure E occurs.
Methods Explained
Method of Agreement
If multiple instances of a phenomenon share only one circumstance in common, that circumstance is identified as the cause or effect.
Indirect Method of Difference
If instances where the phenomenon occurs share one circumstance, while those where it does not occur lack that circumstance, then it is the cause or part of it.
Key Takeaways from Tables
Wealth is necessary for democracy but not sufficient.
An ethnically homogeneous society neither is necessary nor sufficient for democracy.
A parliamentary system is sufficient for democracy but not necessary.
Illustrative Case Study
Theda Skocpol: Analyzes social revolutions through case studies, focusing on 1789 France, 1917 Russia, and 1911-1949 China.
Determines if she uses Method of Agreement or Indirect Method of Difference.
Variables in Comparative Politics
Dependent Variables: Outcomes of interest to explain.
Independent Variables: Factors believed to influence outcomes.
Skocpol’s Argument Summary
External military threats lead to reforms opposed by the dominant class.
A dominant class with independent economic power will incite division.
Solidary peasant villages can trigger revolutions if elite splits occur.
Limitations of Methods
Selection Bias: Choosing cases based on dependent variables can skew results.
Assumptions in Mill's methods include uniqueness, determinism, and measurable outcomes.
Modern Approaches
Acknowledgement of multiple causes and interaction effects for social phenomena.
Current dominant methodologies include:
Statistical tests for conditional probabilities and counterfactuals.
Detailed theories for empirical predictions.
Probabilistic Relationships
Defined as relationships where the presence of one factor (X) increases the likelihood of an outcome (Y) but does not guarantee it.
Exam Preparation Guidelines
Define key concepts like dependent and independent variables.
Distinguish between inductive and deductive reasoning, and understand deterministic relationships.
Identify necessary and sufficient conditions based on provided tables.
Explain Mill's methods and their limitations, and define relationships using conditional probability.
Week 1: What is Comparative Politics?●
Comparative politics is a subfield of political science focusing on within-country relationships.●
It explores political phenomena through various methods, including Mill's Methods of Agreement and Difference, which help analyze relationships between causes and effects.●
These methods, however, have limitations, including assumptions of single causes, determinism, and error-free measurement.●
Modern approaches acknowledge multiple causes, interactions, and measurement challenges, often employing statistical tests and formal theories.
Week 2: Why Do Wars Occur?●
The "puzzle of war" arises because war is costly, and rational actors should prefer negotiated settlements.●
Four explanations for war are proposed:○
Uncertainty: Actors may have incomplete information about each other's strength, leading to miscalculations and failed negotiations.○
Commitment problems: Actors cannot credibly promise to honor agreements in the future, particularly when power dynamics are expected to shift.○
Unchecked elites: Leaders may benefit from war while the costs are borne by the population, leading to a disconnect between individual and national interests.○
Intangible incentives: Ideologies, the pursuit of glory, or a desire for revenge can override material considerations, leading to conflict even when it is economically irrational.
Week 3: Why, and How, Did the State Emerge?●
Thomas Hobbes argued that the state emerged to solve the problem of the "state of nature," where life is chaotic and violent. This is a demand-side explanation, as it focuses on the demand for order and security.●
Mancur Olson criticized Hobbes's theory, arguing that collective action problems prevent large groups from voluntarily forming states.●
Olson proposed a supply-side explanation, suggesting that states emerge when "stationary bandits" (rulers) monopolize theft (taxation) and provide order in return.●
Empirical evidence suggests that states emerged in areas where agriculture was based on appropriable cereal grains, as these facilitated taxation.●
Additionally, armed actors are more likely to start providing state functions when the value of output in a region increases.
Week 4: Why Are Some States More Capable Than Others?●
State capacity is the ability of a state to collect taxes, enforce law and order, and provide public goods.●
It can be measured through outputs like GDP per capita, fiscal capacity like tax ratios, geographic penetration like road networks, and the ability to collect information.●
Charles Tilly's theory argues that war-making drives state-building by forcing rulers to extract resources and develop administrative capacity.●
However, the presence of natural resources can reduce the need for taxation and state-building.●
Moreover, taxation may not always lead to increased state capacity if elites fear losing power or if military technology limits the state's ability to extract resources.
Week 5: What Explains Democratization?●
Democratization is the transition from autocracy to democracy or becoming more democratic.●
There are two views of democracy:○
Substantive view: Classifies regimes based on their outcomes.○
Minimalist (procedural) view: Classifies regimes based on their institutions and procedures.●
Several indices measure democracy, each with its own methodology and focus:○
Freedom House: Assesses political rights and civil liberties.○
Democracy-Dictatorship Measure: Focuses on elections and alternation in power.○
Polity IV: Measures competitiveness and openness of political institutions.○
V-DEM: A comprehensive dataset with multiple indicators of democracy.●
Modernization theory suggests that economic development and social transformation lead to democratization.●
Asset mobility theory argues that the mobility of assets affects the bargaining power of elites and citizens, influencing democratization.●
The threat of revolution can incentivize elites to democratize to prevent upheaval.
Week 6: What Strategies Do Autocrats Use to Stay in Power?●
Autocrats face two key problems:○
Authoritarian control: Managing the conflict between the elite and the population.○
Authoritarian power-sharing: Balancing power between the dictator and regime insiders.●
Strategies to stay in power include:○
State repression: Using violence and intimidation to deter opposition, which can be effective but also backfire and trigger revolutions.○
Censorship: Controlling information to suppress dissent and promote regime narratives, which can prevent collective action but also backfire.○
Institutions: Establishing nominally democratic institutions like parliaments and elections to create a facade of legitimacy, co-opt opposition, distribute patronage, and gather information.
Week 8: What Explains Variation in Electoral Systems?●
Electoral systems are the rules governing electoral competition. They differ in ballot structure, district magnitude, and electoral formula.●
Majoritarian systems favor larger parties and often lead to single-party governments.●
Proportional systems aim for a fairer representation of diverse political views and tend to result in coalition governments.●
Mixed systems combine elements of both majoritarian and proportional systems.●
Theories explaining electoral system variation include:○
Plural societies: Proportional systems are better suited for societies with diverse social groups.○
Trade dependence: Countries reliant on international trade may favor proportional systems and parliaments to represent diverse economic interests.○
Office-seeking candidates: Electoral system changes occur when existing parties are threatened by new entrants and cannot coordinate to maintain their advantage.
Week 9: When Do Elections Lead to Better Governance?●
Democratic elections create an accountability relationship between the government and citizens.●
Accountability can improve governance through two channels:○
Reelection incentives: Politicians perform better to increase their chances of reelection.○
Electoral selection: Voters elect competent and responsive politicians.●
Empirical evidence suggests that higher rewards for office, reelection incentives, and informed voters lead to better governance outcomes.●
Politicians also tend to be more responsive to groups of voters who are more likely to hold them accountable.
Week 10: What Explains the Rise of Right-Wing Populist Leaders?●
Scholars agree that there has been a "populist moment" in recent years.●
Populism is a "thin-centered" ideology that pits the "pure people" against the "corrupt elite."●
Measuring populism is challenging, but various approaches exist, including expert surveys, text analysis of political speeches, and large-scale literature reviews.●
Demand-side explanations for the rise of populism focus on factors that increase voters' demand for populist leaders, such as:○
Economic insecurity: Globalization, technological change, and immigration have led to job losses and economic anxieties, driving support for populist parties.○
Cultural anxieties: Concerns about immigration, cultural change, and the erosion of traditional values have fueled support for right-wing populist leaders.●
Supply-side explanations focus on the behavior of political parties and candidates, suggesting that:○
Populist rhetoric and policies can be used strategically to mobilize voters.○
The entry of candidates from marginalized groups can make populist appeals more credible.
Week 11: What Are the Determinants of Civil Conflict?●
Factors contributing to civil conflict include:○
Poverty: Low income can increase the opportunity cost of fighting, reducing conflict, but can also increase grievances and make rebellion more attractive.○
State weakness: States with weak capacity are more vulnerable to insurgencies and rebellions.○
Ethnic diversity: While often seen as a driver of conflict, ethnic diversity alone is a weak predictor of civil war.■
Ethnic fractionalization measures the probability of two random individuals belonging to different ethnic groups.■
Ethnic polarization accounts for group size and distances between groups.●
Peaceful coexistence is more likely when there are:○
Inter-group complementarities: Different groups provide complementary goods or services.○
Robust complementarities: Inter-group dependencies are difficult to replicate or seize.○
Competition between non-locals: Reduces the incentive for violence against minorities providing essential services.●
Institutions that promote trust and cooperation, such as merchant guilds and inter-religious organizations, can contribute to long-term peace.
Please let me know if you have any further questions or need clarification on specific topics!