ASSESSING POTENTIAL FUTURE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RISKS, BENEFITS AND POLICY IMPERATIVES Berryhill et al 2024

Assessing Potential Future Artificial Intelligence Risks, Benefits and Policy Imperatives

General Overview

The OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers from November 2024 (No. 27) reviews research and expert perspectives on future AI benefits, risks, and policy actions. This document is a collaborative effort involving contributions from the OECD Expert Group on AI Futures, supported by both the OECD AI and Emerging Digital Technologies division (AIEDT) and the Strategic Foresight Unit (SFU). The report synthesizes insights from a variety of stakeholders including academic researchers, industry leaders, and policymakers to provide a comprehensive analysis of the trajectory of AI development.

Foreword

Co-chairs of the Expert Group include:

• Stuart Russell (UC Berkeley)

• Francesca Rossi (IBM)

• Michael Schönstein (Federal Chancellery of Germany)

The co-chairs emphasize the multidisciplinary approach needed to tackle AI governance effectively, bringing unique perspectives from their respective fields to ensure that diverse aspects of AI developments are considered.

Executive Summary

The swift evolution of AI necessitates proactive management by policymakers. The OECD Expert Group on AI Futures plays a crucial role in anticipating AI developments, offering vital insights for the creation of forward-looking policies. Key characteristics of desirable AI futures include:

• Widespread benefits from AI technologies benefiting diverse sectors and populations.

• Respect for human rights in AI applications through ethical frameworks that govern their deployment.

• Significant job creation that not only enriches the workforce but also addresses potential job displacements through reskilling initiatives.

• Enhanced international cooperation to address global challenges through shared AI strategies and standards.

Governments are urged to take immediate actions to foster positive AI outcomes while mitigating risks, such as the skimming of individuals’ rights and privacy due to automated surveillance systems.

Future Benefits from AI

Among the 21 potential future AI benefits identified, the top 10 priority benefits include:

1. Accelerated Scientific Progress:AI can significantly boost research capabilities across various disciplines, leading to groundbreaking discoveries, especially in fields like genomics, materials science, and climate modeling. Through AI algorithms, researchers can analyze complex datasets to uncover patterns and insights that may otherwise go unnoticed.

2. Economic Growth and Productivity Gains:AI technologies promise to enhance productivity across sectors, fueling sustained economic growth by automating routine tasks and enabling innovations that create new markets and industries.

3. Reduced Inequality and Poverty:AI's potential to improve access to resources and opportunities can help bridge socio-economic disparities. Through financial technology (fintech), AI can provide loans and financial services to underbanked populations.

4. Better Approaches to Urgent Issues:Utilizing AI can provide innovative solutions to pressing global challenges, such as climate change and resource management, through improved modeling and optimization strategies.

5. Improved Decision-Making and Forecasting:AI can analyze vast datasets to support better decision-making across industries by incorporating real-time data analytics and predictive modeling to enhance strategic planning.

6. Enhanced Information Distribution:AI can streamline information flows, making data more accessible and useful for diverse audiences by personalizing information dissemination and ensuring relevant content reaches the right users.

7. Improved Healthcare and Education Services:Integration of AI in healthcare and education could personalize and improve service delivery, optimizing patient care through predictive analytics and enhancing learning outcomes through tailored educational experiences.

8. Better Job Quality:AI can enhance job satisfaction by taking over mundane and dangerous tasks, allowing humans to engage in more meaningful work, thus fostering creativity and innovation in the workforce.

9. Empowered Citizens:AI can provide tools that enable individuals to make informed decisions and engage more fully in civic life by facilitating access to information and resources that enhance civic engagement.

10. Enhanced Institutional Transparency and Governance:Leveraging AI can lead to greater accountability in public and private governance by implementing systems that promote transparency and public participation in decision-making processes.

Priority Policy Actions

• Establish clearer rules surrounding AI liability to ensure accountability and foster trust among users and stakeholders.

• Restrict certain harmful AI uses, particularly in areas that threaten human rights such as facial recognition and surveillance technologies without explicit consent.

• Promote disclosure practices conveying AI system capabilities and limitations to users, reducing misinformation and enabling informed choices.

• Ensure that robust risk management techniques are incorporated throughout the AI lifecycle, from development to deployment and maintenance, to minimize potential harms.

• Mitigate competitive dynamics that encourage unethical practices in AI development, fostering an environment of collaboration rather than mere competition.

• Invest in research focused on AI safety to address potential dangers comprehensively, ensuring that safety measures are integrated early in the design process.

• Facilitate educational opportunities that bridge skills gaps created by AI advancements, ensuring equitable access to training, particularly for marginalized communities.

• Empower civil society to reinforce trust and promote democratic engagement with AI technologies through participatory models that involve communities in AI governance discussions.

• Mitigate excessive market power concentration among leading AI firms to maintain a competitive landscape, allowing space for emerging players to innovate.

• Target specific actions to advance the identified benefits and prioritize societal needs, including ethical considerations in policy-making.

Global Governance and AI

International cooperation is emphasized as paramount in shaping beneficial AI governance frameworks. The report asserts that collaborative governance strategies will aid in navigating the complexities introduced by rapidly evolving AI capabilities, ensuring that ethical considerations remain at the forefront. Establishing partnerships across nations will be key to developing shared norms and standards for AI development and use.

Summary

The OECD report underscores the necessity for ongoing evaluation and a robust policy framework to harness AI's full potential while proactively addressing its inherent risks. Immediate action is crucial for implementing the identified recommendations and ensuring ethical practices in AI development whilst fostering an inclusive environment for all stakeholders.