*Exam Notes: Scientific Thinking & Hindsight Bias

Hypothesis:
- Specific prediction about a phenomenon.
- Often takes the form of an "If > Then" statement.
- Narrow, focused, and designed to be confirmed or rejected by research.
Theory:
- Set of formal statements explaining how and why events are related.
- Broad, well-supported framework explaining a wide range of observations.
- Built on evidence, repeatedly tested, and organizes findings.

Major Drawback:
- Makes outcomes seem obvious after they happen, leading to a false sense of causal understanding.
- Useless for science as it doesn't generate testable predictions.
- Can explain any outcome post-fact, often contradictorily.
- Prevents discovery of real causal factors.
- Fosters overconfidence in understanding while hindering prediction or prevention of future events.