19. POPULISM

Agenda for the Class

  1. What is populism?

  2. How can we measure it?

  3. What explains the rise of populist parties and politicians?

Qualified Majority Voting in the EU

  • Requirements for Qualified Majority Voting (QMV):

    • 55% of member states

    • Representing 65% of the EU population (residents)

    • A blocking minority, representing 35% of the population, must consist of at least 4 member states

  • Largest member states by population share:

    • Germany (GER): 18.8%

    • France (FRA): 15.2%

    • Italy (ITA): 13.1%

    • Spain (ESP): 10.7%

    • Poland (POL): 8.0%

  • Voting practices: Most decisions are not taken by formal vote; refer to Ehin (2025) and the online calculator at euvote.eu.

Defining Populism

Difficulty of Definition

  • The term populism is used differently in various contexts.

  • Key disagreements include the type of entity being defined:

    • Is it an ideology?

    • Is it a form of communication?

    • Is it a strategy?

    • Is it a form of organization?

Ideational Definition of Populism

  • “Populism is an ideology that considers society to be ultimately divided into two homogeneous (pure) and antagonistic (corrupt) groups, ‘the pure people’ versus ‘the corrupt elite’, and which argues that politics should be an expression of the volonté générale (general will) of the people.”

Core Components of Populism

  • Populism as an ideology: A certain kind of ideological framework.

  • Dualism: The distinction between the ‘pure people’ and the ‘corrupt elite’.

  • Homogeneity: Each group is seen as a homogenous category.

  • Politics as expression: Politics should reflect the general will of the people.

A “Thin” Ideology

  • “Populism is in itself neither left nor right, but most populist actors are.”

  • Populism is not an encompassing ideology; it’s often paired with “thick” host ideologies leading to left, right, and other forms of populism.

Measuring Populism

Two Different Approaches

  1. PopuList Database:

    • Scholars categorize cases with expert consultation.

    • Qualitative approach yields binary classification.

  2. POPPA Expert Survey:

    • Country experts rate parties on specific dimensions using statistical modeling.

    • Produces a continuous scale of populism.

Populism Data Trends

  • Vote Share Data: Illustrates the rising trends from 1995 to 2020 across various party types including far-left, far-right populist, and populist parties.

Explaining the Rise of Populism

Overview of Explanations

  • Demand-side Explanations:

    • Economic grievances

    • Socio-cultural grievances

    • Interaction of both factors

  • Supply-side Explanations:

    • Performance of political institutions

  • Voluntarist Explanations:

    • Behavior of political actors

  • Other Explanations:

    • Changes in the media landscape

Economic Grievances

  • Negative economic developments categorized as egotropic (personal) or sociotropic (societal).

  • Concerns include fear of the future, insecurity, and societal divisions (e.g., urban-rural divide).

Socio-Cultural Grievances

  • Changes in societal values, mobilization of women and minorities, and immigration leading to counter-reactions, particularly among demographics such as white males.

  • Economic and socio-cultural grievances can intersect.

Nostalgic Deprivation and Populism

  • Measurable changes in predicted probabilities of attitudinal responses to populism based on deprivation levels.

Supply-Side Deficiencies

  • Political institutions show lack of responsiveness and effectiveness due to:

    • Inequalities

    • Influence of money in politics

    • Phenomenon of “TINA” (There Is No Alternative)

    • Judicial and technocratic decision-making

    • Euroskepticism

    • Decline of mainstream parties

Voluntarist Explanations

  • Focus on individual choices and behaviors of political actors, including strategies that emphasize salient issues or political entrepreneurship.

Concluding Remarks

  • Populism is defined primarily as a thin ideology characterized by dualism between a perceived homogenous good people and a corrupt elite.

  • Discussion on demand-side, supply-side, and voluntarist explanations for the rise of populism and exploration of effective countermeasures.