March 18

2000 Israeli withdrawal

May 2000 divine vicotry

  • Idf exit from secure zone

domestic legit surge

shebaa farms trextxt

Israel exiting security xone was one of most imporants moments hist for hezbola

strategic shift: 2000-2006

  • Deterrence

  • Expansion

  • ConT

playing politics: entering electoral area

hezbola entered formal poltics, they were trying to legitimize, strategic shift

  • Hezbola began to work w Lebanese gov

Locally hezbolla had healthcare, wealfare, youth mobilization ect.

Hezbola often described as state within state WILL BE ON EXAM

governs social life, fills gaps left by lebanese state ect.

pploften supported hezbolla bc of its provided human rights

Rafiq al hariri assisination and political crisis

2005 assas

after 2005, new political map org by 2 major blocks

march 8, incl hozbola and alllies

end of syrian milt presence changed balance pwr

debate pof sovereingty becane sharper, hezbola military autonomy become more controversial

lebanon alr deivided in 2006

july 2006 war

34 day war, hezbola used rockerpower warfare against israel

hugh civilian toll

not contained

major interstate conflict

survival tunred into legitimacy

iranian nacked built effort to reinforce social base

war damanged lebanon and deppended social power amoiung hezbola supporters

What is hezbolla??

by late 90s, not one single identity

Armed resistence, social service, isamic resistence, ect.

powerful armed imperatifs

offerered schools, hospitals, ect,

hezbolla regional national actor

created friction opver soveirgenty

hezbolla pwr came also from combining resitence wellfare and military into one actor

Shura council:

Select operations: global reach

1983 beirut barracks bombings

target multinational force in lebanon (US marines & french Paratroopers)

In current war, hezbolla is acting less as iscolated movement

iraqi militia attacked US

hezbolla acting under restraint, but lots of civilian deaths in Lebanon.

this conflict for iran

post shadow war

prospects for irans plitical tranbsition:

2026 inflection pont 🇦 mass repression, jan 2026 crackdoen on protest revealed regime fragioliyy and loss of legitimacy, war shcoks; feb 28 strikes and khamenis death created power vacuum and existrential crisis, elite fractires: deepending rifts btwn hardliners, IRgc factionsa and pragmatic technocrats

transition models: hourcades thesis:

GROUP:

Scenario 1:

Scenario 2:

Scenario 3: qw