EXAM REVISION

🔥 MASTER NUMERICAL REVISION LIST (Units 1–4)

This is your closed list of everything you need for the exam numerically.
Nothing extra. Nothing missing.

We’ll group by topic exactly like your lecturer builds it.


🧠 SECTION A — ARBITRAGE & ONE-PERIOD MODEL (Unit 2)

Q1 — Arbitrage profit calculation

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.1

You must be able to:

  • Identify arbitrage opportunity

  • Calculate:

    • borrowing cost

    • interest earned

    • final profit

Pattern:

  • Borrow → invest → forward contract → compare outcomes


Q2 — Risk-neutral probability (1-period)

📍 From: Unit 2, Example 2.1 + formula

Core formula (MUST memorise):

qU=1+r−DU−D,qD=U−(1+r)U−DqU​=U−D1+r−D​,qD​=U−DU−(1+r)​

You must:

  • Solve for qq

  • Check: qU+qD=1qU​+qD​=1


Q3 — Pricing European call (1-period)

📍 From: Unit 2, Example 2.1

Steps (EXAM EXACT):

  1. Compute payoffs:

    max⁡(SU−K,0),max⁡(SD−K,0)max(SU​−K,0),max(SD​−K,0)

  2. Take expectation under QQ

  3. Discount:

    C=11+rEQ[payoff]C=1+r1​EQ​[payoff]


Q4 — Replicating portfolio (hedging)

📍 From: Unit 2, section with θ1,θ2θ1​,θ2​

Solve system:

θ1SU+θ2=D1θ1​SU+θ2​=D1​θ1SD+θ2=D2θ1​SD+θ2​=D2​

Then:

V=θ1S+θ2V=θ1​S+θ2​


Q5 — State price / pricing via cashflows

📍 From: Unit 2 equation (2.5)

V=11+r(qUD1+qDD2)V=1+r1​(qU​D1​+qD​D2​)


Q6 — Trinomial model probabilities

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.2

You must:

  • Solve:

EQ(S1)=S0EQ​(S1​)=S0​

  • With:

q1+q2+q3=1q1​+q2​+q3​=1

👉 This gives infinite solutions


Q7 — Hedging in trinomial model

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.2 (iii)

Solve:

θ1Si+θ2=Diθ1​Si​+θ2​=Di​

👉 Leads to constraint:

3D1−5D2+2D3=03D1​−5D2​+2D3​=0


Q8 — Two-period tree probabilities

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.3

You must:

  • Work forward through tree

  • Solve probabilities from expectations


Q9 — Two-period option pricing

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.3

Steps:

  1. Compute payoffs at final nodes

  2. Work backwards or use expectation:

C=EQ[max⁡(S2−K,0)]C=EQ​[max(S2​−K,0)]


Q10 — Hedging strategy (multi-step)

📍 From: Unit 2, Problem 2.3 (d)

Solve system for actions A1,A2,A3,A4A1​,A2​,A3​,A4​


🧠 SECTION B — MARTINGALES (Unit 3)

Q11 — Conditional expectation

📍 From: Unit 3 §3.1

Discrete:

E[X∣Y=y]=∑xP(X=x∣Y=y)E[X∣Y=y]=∑xP(X=x∣Y=y)


Q12 — Check martingale property

📍 From: Unit 3 definition

You must verify:

E(Mn+1∣past)=MnE(Mn+1​∣past)=Mn​


Q13 — Random walk martingale

📍 Example 1

  • Show:

Mn=M0+∑ξiMn​=M0​+∑ξi​

is a martingale if E[ξi]=0E[ξi​]=0


Q14 — Multiplicative process

📍 Example 2

Xn=X0∏ζiXn​=X0​∏ζi​

Check:

  • martingale if E[ζi]=1E[ζi​]=1

  • super/sub otherwise


Q15 — Variance martingale

📍 Example 3

Mn=Sn2−vnMn​=Sn2​−vn​

👉 Show expectation of increment = 0


Q16 — Exponential martingale

📍 Example 4

Mn=eθSnϕ(θ)nMn​=ϕ(θ)neθSn​​


🧠 SECTION C — MULTI-PERIOD BINOMIAL MODEL (Unit 4)

Q17 — Build binomial tree

📍 Unit 4 §4.1

Sn=S0UkDn−kSn​=S0​UkDn−k


Q18 — Risk-neutral probabilities (multi-period)

📍 Theorem 4.1

qU=1+r−DU−DqU​=U−D1+r−D​

(same as before — but MUST connect to martingale idea)


Q19 — Binomial distribution of stock price

📍 Unit 4

P(Sn=S0UkDn−k)=(nk)qUkqDn−kP(Sn​=S0​UkDn−k)=(kn​)qUk​qDn−k​


Q20 — European call pricing (CRR formula)

📍 Section 4.3

C=1(1+r)N∑(Nk)qUkqDN−kmax⁡(SN−K,0)C=(1+r)N1​∑(kN​)qUk​qDN−k​max(SN​−K,0)


Q21 — Find cutoff k0k0​

📍 Same section

k0=smallest integer s.t. S0UkDN−k≥Kk0​=smallest integer s.t. S0​UkDN−k≥K


Q22 — European put pricing

📍 Section 4.4

Same structure as call but:

max⁡(K−SN,0)max(K−SN​,0)


Q23 — American put (BACKWARD INDUCTION)

📍 Problem 4.3

THIS IS IMPORTANT

At each node:

value=max⁡(exercise,continuation)value=max(exercise,continuation)


Q24 — Compare American vs European

📍 Unit 4

  • American ≥ European

  • Must justify using computed values


Q25 — Parameter construction (U, D, r)

📍 Section 4.8

U=eσdt,D=e−σdtU=eσdt​,D=e−σdt​


🚨 THIS IS YOUR COMPLETE NUMERICAL SYLLABUS

If you can do ALL 25 of these → you are fully covered.

No gaps. No wasted time.


🔥 NEXT STEP (IMPORTANT)

We now start mastering them in the correct order:

Order I recommend (matches learning flow):

  1. Q2 → Q3 → Q4 (core foundation)

  2. Q8 → Q9 (multi-step logic)

  3. Q17 → Q20 (binomial model full)

  4. Q23 (hardest, exam favourite)

  5. Then fill gaps