Iran and North Korea

Nuclear Proliferation Basics

Weapons of Mass Destruction

3 types of weapons of mass destructions

• Nuclear

• Chemical

• Biological

WMDs viewed as different category of weapons compared to conventional weapons

• Mass destruction, longer effects

Use of chemical and biological are banned by international treaty - not nuclear

Nuclear Technology

3 components to nuclear technology:

• Nuclear device - size matters - can it fit on a missile

• Nuclear material - weapons grade (enriched) uranium - hard to get/make

• Delivery system - bomb, missile, MIRV (Multiple Independency-targetable, Re-entry Vehicle)

Nuclear Deterrence

Realists argue that nuclear weapons promote peace through deterrence

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) based on second strike capacity

• If one side launches, other side will still have enough nucs to counter-attack

• Also prevents conventional fighting based on fear of escalation

The Strategic Triad and Second Strike Capability

• Inter- continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)

• Strategic Bombers

• Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM)

• Variety of weapons platforms,  many are mobile, mean they can’t all be taken out in a first strike

• Thus, second strike capability

Nuclear Proliferation

Nuclear proliferation refers to spread of nuclear weapons capability to other countries

Concern is about:

• Less rational countries having nukes

• Nukes going to terrorists that can’t be deterred

• Regional arms races and greater instability

US-Iran Relations

The1953 CIA Coup

• 1951 Iranian Prime Minister takes control of oil industry away from Western oil companies

• 1953 CIA and MI6 orchestrate a coup and install the pro-Western Shah of Iran

• Shah seen as Western puppet

The 1979 Iranian Revolution

• 1979 Shaw is overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists

• Ayatollah Khomeini becomes leader

• Iran becomes the Islamic Republic of Iran - theocracy 

• Revolution led to the 1979 OPEC oil crisis - oil prices spike, global recession

2005 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Elected

• Ahmadinejad was strongly anti-American and anti-Israel

• More aggressive foreign policy

• Concerns that Iran was developing nuclear weapons grew

US/Israel Operations Against Iran

• US, West and Israel have tried to stop Iran’s nuclear program:

• Strong sanctions to prevent Iran selling oil

• Denial sanctions to prevent iran’s access to nukes materials

• Nuclear scientists assassinated

• Stuxnet cyber attack that destroyed Iranian uranium centrifuges

Obama’s Iran nuclear deal

• Years of strong sanctions cause Iran to negotiate

• Obama led deal in 2015: the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA)

• Reduction of sanctions in exchange for Iran stopping nuclear development

Trump 1.0 on Iran

• In 2018, Trump withdraws from Iran deal and re-imposes sanctions

• Israel strongly opposed Iran deal and supported withdrawal

• JCPOA slowed nuclear program but didn’t deal with missile development where key issue is increasing range of missiles

• JCPOA also didn’t deal with Iran’s threats to Israel and backing of regional proxies including:

• Hamas in Gaza

• Hezbollah in South Lebanon

• Houthis in Yemen

• Shia militias in Syria and Iraq

• Iran is Shia/Persian and clashes with Sunni/Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Gulf states

Current Situation

• Without JCPOA, Iran has been advancing its nuclear program and missile development

• Neocons and Israel have long wanted to attack Iran

• Success of Venezuela operation was used to convince Trump to launch attack

• Iran has led to split between neocons and nationalists

• Nationalists don’t believe Iran war is in US interests due to cost, oil prices, inflation

• Trump promised no more wars

• Large cost of war could be used at home

• Strikes on Iran have mostly been a military success:

• Killed Ayatollah and many senior leaders

• Degraded Iran’s nuclear and missile programs

• Degraded Iran’s navy and air force

• However it is unclear whether war will be a strategic success or failure:

• Regime is still in place and wants a nuclear weapon even more

• Enriched uranium under rubble but still in iran

• Underestimated Iran’s ability to close Straits of Hormuz with drones and smaller boats

• Economic impact much larger than expected

• Low support among US public and allies

US-North Korea Relations

The Division of Korea

• 1910-45 Japan ruled a unified korea

• At the end of ww2 and surrender of Japan, allied forces occupied korea

• Soviets occupied north of 38th parallel and US south of it

• Breakdown in US-Soviet relations prevents reunification 

• 1948 Kim Il Sung creates the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

• ‘North korea’ - soviet backed, communist authoritarian state

• 1948- Republic of Korea - backed by the US

• 1950 Kim Il Sung invades South Korea

• UN authorizes defence of south korea

• US heads UN command along Canada and many other

1953 Korean War Armistice

• War ends but no formal peace treaty

• US, China and Koreas sign the Korean War Armistice Agreement

• Establishes border with DMZ (de-militarized zone)

US-NK Cold War

Us and nk have ongoing tensions during cold war

In 1950s ussr helps DPRK build nuclear reactor

1985 DPRK signs the UN non-proliferation treaty NPT promising no nuclear weapons

Ussr collapses and dprk loses key supporter

Dprk develops nukes program:

• 2003 withdraws from NPT

• 2006 tests nukes

Leads to a cycle of sanctions, deals, cheating, nuclear tests, new deals

Trump 1.0 and North Korea

• Kim Jong Un tests Trump with missile launches

• DPRK now has capability to hit US west coast with nukes

• Trump starts with threats based on madman theory

• Then agrees to meet

• Couldn't agree on deal

Current situation

• Biden maintained strong sanctions but did not seek a deal

• Dprk keeps launching more missiles to get US attention

• Security pact with russia 

• Ammo and soldiers for ukraine

• Trump has said negotiations are a possibility