Three Pillars of Stability in Autocratic Regimes

Three Pillars of Autocratic Stability

Introduction

  • Explains the longevity of autocracies using three pillars: "Legitimation, Repression, and Co-optation".

  • These pillars develop over time through reinforcement processes.

    • Exogenous reinforcement: Powered by available resources.

    • Self-reinforcement: Triggers path-dependency.

    • Reciprocal reinforcement: Leads to complementarity.

Research Waves

  • Totalitarianism Paradigm (1930s-1960s):

    • Key factors were ideology and terror.

  • Rise of Authoritarianism (1960s-1980s):

    • Emphasis on socio-economic factors.

  • Renaissance of Autocracy Studies (1999-Present):

    • Focus on strategic repression and co-optation.

The Concepts

  • Legitimation:

    • Gaining support based on “legitimacy belief”.

    • Seeks active "consent, compliance, obedience, or toleration."

    • Diffuse support: Stemming from ideologies, religion, nationalism, charisma, or external threats.

    • Specific support: Addressing demands for socio-economic development and security.

    • Measurement:

    • Specific: GDP growth, HDI, etc.

    • Diffuse: Protests (or lack of, discounting for repression), expert assessments, content analysis of official claims

  • Repression:

    • Use of "physical sanctions to impose costs and deter activities."

    • High intensity: Violent repression of demonstrations, campaigns against parties, imprisonment of leaders.

    • Low intensity: "Surveillance, intimidation, denial of opportunities, curtailment of political rights."

    • Measurement:

    • Freedom house Indicators.

    • Cingranelli-Richards Human Rights Dataset.

    • Political Terror Scale Project

  • Co-optation:

    • Tying strategically-relevant actors to the regime elite.

    • Ensures "intra-elite cohesion and steering capacity."

    • Formal channels: Parliaments, parties, elections.

    • Informal ways: Patronage, clientelism, corruption.

    • Measurement:

    • Degree of institutionalization.

Stabilization Process

  • Exogenous Reinforcement:

    • Dependent on available power and material resources.

  • Endogenous Self-Reinforcement:

    • Legitimation: Reinforces itself via supporting attitudes.

    • Network good connected to high initial start-up costs that trigger subsequent investments

    • Repression: Reproduces power asymmetries.

    • Learning and coordination effects that are self-reinforcing

    • Co-optation: Strategic action where elites weigh costs and benefits.

    • High fixed/setup costs amortized with growing numbers.

    • Learning/coordination effects increase efficiency.

    • Adaptive expectations and network effects.

  • Reciprocal Reinforcement:

    • Complementarity between the pillars.

    • Elite cohesion complementary to managing oppositional demands.

    • Two hypothesized stable configurations: