Foreign Policy decisions in China

Centralized yet complex system

  • Overview of China’s FP

    • China is too big to be too centralized

      • party, state, regions, institutions

    • CCP (Politburo Standing Committee) is a primary policy makers

    • Aims for cohesive international strategies, but not always successful (challenges because of the fragmented bureaucratic landscape)

  • CCP (Chinese Communist Party)

    • Core principles guiding decisions

    • Leadership ensures alignment with national objectives

    • Strict control over foreign affairs

  • Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC)

    • 7 members – ultimate authority

    • deciding on the strategic decisions

      • Decides on critical foreign policy matters concerning national sovereignty and territorial integrity

  • Xi Jinping – has been centralizing decision making

    • National Security Council made by him – attempt of centralization around him

    • His positions as President and General Secretary enable him to influence global initiatives remarkably

  • Central Foreign Affairs Commission

    • under Xi’s leadership, part of CCP

    • CCP’s dominance while sidelining the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    • leader: Wang Yi even though Xi is the official leader

  • complex bureaucratic system

·         1. great power foreign policy – by Xi – elevating China to the same level of the US

·         International Liaisons – de facto decision maker of the party (not the gov.)

·         Belt and Road Leading Group

·         2. National Security Foreign Policy

o   Nat. Sec. Commission (leader XI)

o   Defense, PLAGF, PLAN, PLAAF, Rocket Force

o   PLA most active in China’s neighborhood – impact on foreign policy there

·         3. State Foreign Policy – Strategic Resource Foreign Policy

o   natural resources – maritime, island, mineral, transport, coast guard, agriculture

·         4. Geoeconomic Foreign Policy

o   belt and road, stb

o   Minister of Collars??

·         5. Near-Abroad Foreign Policy

o   Politics and Legal Affairs Commission – secretary, armed police, public and state security

o   border control, terrorist groups, minority groups (state security)

·         6. Traditional Diplomatic Foreign Policy

o   what the Minister of Foreign Affairs does – Wang Yi

o   part of this is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs – much smaller significance than in other countries

o   Central Europe is actually covered by both the European and Eurasian department (bcz of Soviet background)

·         7. Diaspora Affairs (incl. Hongkong and Macau)

o   Overseas Chinese Affairs, Ethnic Affairs Commission

o   30-60 million Chinese living abroad – 2nd biggest

·         8. Local Foreign Policy

o   food resources, investment

o   departments of border provinces

  • Major Country Diplomacy Doctrine

    • China’s ambition for global leadership and norm shaping

    • promotes an assertive diplomatic stance aimed at redefining international norms

  • High profile initiatives

    • Serve to solidify China’s influence globally

  • shift towards nationalistic foreign policy

    • Under Xi’s leadership

    • emphasizes assertiveness in diplomatic engagements and global stances

    • even though communism is supposed to be internationalistic

    • US as the external threat

Key institutions:

  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    • Implement policy, but don’t have the authority to make major decisions

    • Often sidelined from initial strategy formulation - dominance of CCP

  • People’s Liberation Army (PLA)

    • key player - shaping FP, particularly national security and territorial integrity

    • largest part in the budget

    • Its involvement emphasizes military considerations (especially Taiwan and South China Sea)

  • Ministry of State Security (MSS)

    • internal and external intelligence agency

    • significantly influence security-oriented foreign policy decisions

    • very secretive, very influential

  • Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)

    • sometimes more influential than even the Min. of Foreign Affairs

    • leads trade negotiations, oversees foreign investments

    • navigates the intersection of economic interests and diplomatic relations

  • Propaganda Department and United Front Work Department

    • shape China’s international image and narrative control

    • influence public opinion abroad

    • soft power efforts

  • Regional Government Engagement

    • very powerful regional governments

    • Chinese provinces – limited autonomy, but they can use this to interact with foreign governments (reflects a bottom-up approach)

    • 3 types of strategies: trailblazing, carpetbagging, resisting

      • 1. convincing central gov. to start a new foreign policy

      • 2. province modifies implementation to pursue local interests, bargaining

      • 3. province refuses to adopt central directives cuz they go against their interests – so China is not as centralized as people think

    • EU is somewhat more unified as China

  • State owned enterprises (SOEs)

    • bigger say in economy than before Xi

    • act on behalf of the state but often prioritize commercial interests (leading up to complex relationship with the central authority)

    • Their autonomy allows them to engage independently in international markets

    • CEOs elected by the party – they outrank ministers, their rank is the same as provincial governors

    • relationships with central authority – corporate and governmental functions – hybrid structure

    • the reason China still couldn’t decrease CO2 emissions even though the central government wants to, is cuz these enterprises don’t want to

Xi Jinping’s Personal Role

  • Centralization of decision-making

    • unified direction aligned closely with Xi’s strategic vision

      • Belt and Road Initiative (designed to create infrastructure between China and Eurasia) – not that important anymore though

  • Major initiatives linked to Xi’s Vision

    • Major initiatives exemplify his vision for China as a global leader

    • Promoting an alternative model compared to the Western ones

  • Impact of foreign policy direction

    • centralized approach → assertive and nationalistic policy

    • ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy – significant departure from previous paradigms emphasizing sovereignty and national interests over diplomacy and compromise

    • strategic patience nowadays – don’t engage with the US – no provocation reaction – China thinks time is on their side (like thinking the trade war will hurt the US more and faster than China)

      • expressing they are not in a hurry to engage with the US

Coordination and Challenges

  • Bureaucratic Turf Battles

    • FP landscape is characterized by intense rivalries in China – agencies compete for resources and influence

    • Lead to fragmented policy-making

      → diminishing overall coherence in foreign policy direction

    • authoritarian bureaucracies tend to turn chaotic

  • Asymmetric information flow

    • Lower level receive filtered info from their superiors leading to gaps in understanding the strategic intentions of top leaders, hindering effective implementation of policies

  • Institutional reforms for better coordination

    • Recent reform: establishment of the National Security Commission

    • Never effective

    • Even more complicated

  • Domestic and International Drivers

o   nationalism

o   CHINESE SOCIAL CONTRACT – stay out of politics, in turn we will make the economy and living standards better and better for you

§  but today it doesn’t grow as much anymore, but now China is a global power

·         regime survival and legitimacy – 1 constant: the party thinks that this is the priority, most important (party survival)

·         nationalism and sovereignty – playing pivotal role in shaping China’s foreign policy decisions, especially surrounding Hongkong and Taiwan – asserting sovereignty over these territories is of great importance – double edged sword (what if they can’t keep the promise? – could lead to war or facing their on people’s dissatisfaction)