Definition of Austerity: Austerity refers to government policies aimed at reducing budget deficits during periods of financial crisis, often through spending cuts and tax increases.
Causes of Austerity:
- Austerity measures may result from unsustainable debt levels, where the government struggles to meet debt repayments, leading to a cycle of borrowing and austerity.
Impact on the General Public:
- Austerity measures typically lead to reduced public services, increased taxes, and greater financial burdens on average citizens.
- The public might object to austerity due to the perceived unfairness of its impact, particularly on lower-income populations.
- Recall the local political dynamics and public responses to austerity measures, which can invoke widespread resistance.

Reference to Abu Hatab, Riaz, and Orkoh (2024).
- Summarization of how the current debt landscape has transitioned from multilateral institutions towards more expensive, short-term bilateral, and commercial creditors.
- Importance: This shift alters the debt positions of African countries, increasing their financial vulnerability.
Understanding Eurobond Market:
- Germany's perspective: Eurobonds are crucial as they are a means for countries to raise capital via the private market, although they come with risks and costs.
- Advantages: Easier access to capital, potential for lower interest rates.
- Disadvantages: Increased risk of default, higher costs associated with express bonds (if the market turns against the issuing country, for example).
Relation to Food Security:
- How debt and borrowing strategies influence public access to food and the overall food security situation in these nations.
Second Wave of Debt:
- Discussion of the recent wave of debts in contrast to historical ones, especially post-independence crises.

Debt Statistics (2024):
- Kenyan foreign debt stood at approximately 70% of GDP, equating to around $80 billion compared to a $113 billion GDP.
- The government owed substantial amounts to a variety of entities, including the World Bank, the IMF, China, and private lenders.
- Specifics:
- $2.34 billion borrowed from the IMF in 2021 due to COVID-19 impacts.
- $1.5 billion Eurobond loan secured in early 2024.
- Concerns regarding the terms including high interest rates and short repayment timelines leading to what can be viewed as an accelerated debt crisis.

Introduction:
- In response to the critical debt situation, President Ruto introduced stringent austerity measures through the 2024 Finance Bill.
Provisions of the Finance Bill:
- Reduction in public spending paired with tax increases aiming to raise about 346 billion Kenyan Shillings (~US$2.7 billion), primarily for debt servicing.
- Tax Increases:
- 2.5% annual tax on car ownership.
- 16% tax on imported bread, sugar, eggs, onions, and potatoes.
- 25% tax on all vegetable oil, also affecting soap prices.
- Introduction of taxes on diapers and feminine hygiene products.
Public Response:
- Analyzing who bears the brunt of these taxes—do they weigh heavier on the poor, wealthy, or both equally?
- Speculation on how popular these measures have been among the public.

Key Events:
- June 25, 2024: Significant anti-tax protests erupted.
- Violent incidents:
- Parliament heard gunfire as protests escalated.
- Reports of numerous injuries and fatalities among protesters.
- Key events included Nairobi City Hall being set ablaze alongside notable incidents of police intervention and alleged use of live fire on unarmed protestors.
- Public Sentiment:
- Protests were widespread, occurring in 34 of 52 counties.
- Protestors targeted local elites perceived as corrupt, reflecting a shift in traditional allegiances away from tribal affiliations.
Political Responses:
- Government's heavy-handed tactics against protesters mirrored historical authoritarian responses in the region.

Ndiritu Muriithi's Analysis:
- Posits three potential explanations for the protests:
1. Foreign nations orchestrating destabilization efforts in Kenya.
2. Rejection by Kenyans of the IMF's conditionality and austerity measures.
3. An authentic rise in national patriotic consciousness among youths.
- Muriithi supports the third explanation, noting the violent reactions from the government illustrate fear of youth-led discontent directed towards the elites.

Creation of a structured engagement path post-protests, emphasizing the oversight of the implementation of loan conditionalities.
The IMF's advance visit to Nairobi reflects concerns regarding public stability and accountability post-protests.

Nigerian Protests:
- Youth-led movements in Nigeria have drawn inspiration from events in Kenya, amplified by shared themes of economic hardship and resistance to similar austerity measures.

Examination of the Arab Spring's origins as anti-corruption uprisings that began in Tunisia (2011) and spread throughout the region.
Comparison to current protests, questioning whether these events may replicate similar instability without immediate governance improvements.

Corruption and Governance:
- Notable corruption within post-Mandela administrations, particularly those led by Jacob Zuma (2009-2018), has significantly impacted South African societal and economic conditions.
Democratic Processes:
- In South Africa, since its first democratic elections in 1994, the ANC has maintained a significant parliamentary majority until the recent 2024 elections where it lost the majority, mandating a coalition governance model moving forward.

Definition of Coup d'état:
- An illegal attempt by military or government elites to overthrow the existing leadership, often involving violence and sudden action.
Recent successful coups in Africa include 8 notable incidents since 2020, highlighting systemic governance failures, security issues, and widespread corruption.
Themes of anti-collegialism, faulty elections, and domestic tension are prevalent among these cases.

Discusses the common pattern among aspiring autocrats highlighting the cycle of staging coups, offering transitional reforms but failing to deliver on democratic promises, leading to human rights abuses.
The factor of popular support is crucial in explaining the phenomena behind recent coups versus protests.

Examines conditions explaining why some nations resort to popular protests while others experience military takeovers, emphasizing the role of civil society and social capital in influencing outcomes.

Seun Kuti, a prominent Nigerian musician and activist, addresses the oppressive nature of IMF conditionality through his music, particularly his song “IMF”, highlighting themes of suffering tied to austerity measures.
- The lyrics of the song criticize the disconnect between government leaders and the plight of their people, framing austerity and corruption as deeply intertwined issues.

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