Study Notes on Democratic Backsliding and Populism

Causal Error and Democratic Backsliding

  • Emphasis on causal error system.
  • Discussion of reverse effects.
  • Current theme: democratic backsliding.
  • Consideration of populism: identification, measurement, and occurrence.

Democratic Backsliding

  • Definition: the process whereby democratic institutions and norms are eroded or weakened.
  • Growth in academic focus and publications on the topic.
  • Reference to a specific graph showing the frequency of articles on democratic backsliding in JSORE since 2019.
  • Exponential growth in discussions, especially post-2018 and the publication of Nancy Bourneo's article in "Journal of Democracy".
  • Article as a precursor in recognizing democratic backsliding before it became widely acknowledged.

Theories and Measurement of Democracy

  • Overlap with theories of democratic transitions.
  • Current academic debates focus on:
    • Use of objective versus subjective indicators of democracy.
    • Measurement methods:
    • Traditional: Objective indicators created by research organizations using coded assessments by experts.
    • E.g., coding involves research assistants at institutions who evaluate countries' democratic character based on various concepts.
    • Subjective indicators may yield discrepancies due to biases.
  • Importance of human-coded data in identifying trends in democratization and backsliding.

Types of Democracy Indices

  • Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem): a comprehensive project that measures quality and dimensions of democracy.
    • Includes indicators like:
    • Fairness of elections
    • Freedom of association
    • Civil liberties
    • Executive constraints
  • Liberal Democracy Index (0 to 1 scale):
    • Allows rating based on the dimensions mentioned above.
    • Case study: U.S. showing decline in index post-2016.
  • Electoral Democracy Index:
    • Measures free and fair elections and associated freedoms.
    • Data-driven approach, relying on measurable political events.

Case Studies - Brazil and the U.S.

  • Brazil case study:
    • Overview of Dilma Rousseff's impeachment and subsequent events:
    • Interim President Temer and political instability.
    • Election of Jair Bolsonaro leading to decline in democratic indicators in Brazil from 0.8 downwards.
    • Discussion of the lasting legacies of backsliders in democracies.

Dimensions of Democratic Backsliding

  • Identification of backsliding can be linked to certain actions:
    • Less competitive elections that favor incumbents.
    • Erosion of accountability mechanisms.
    • Restricted participation and intimidation tactics against potential voters.
  • Examples:
    • Declaring non-voting holidays or manipulating polling places to hinder turnout.
    • Roadblocks imposed to check documents, creating barriers to participation.

Political Context and Norms

  • Populism as a political tactic often coincides with democratic backsliding; leaders often manipulate the system for personal gain.
  • Key characteristics of populist tactics include:
    • Discrediting existing institutions.
    • Requesting direct power from the populace while bypassing representative institutions.
    • Use of executive decrees and court packing.
    • Creation of plebiscitarian democracy which undermines representative democracy.

Agency and Institutional Explanations

  • Agency-based explanations focus on individual leaders' actions and impacts.
  • Institutional explanations consider the framework and vulnerabilities of political institutions that allow populist leaders to gain power.
  • Discussion about the historical context of the U.S. political system relating to current populism crises.

Challenges to Democracy

  • Factors influencing democratic backsliding include economic conditions, civil unrest, and political party vulnerabilities.
  • The erosion of norms and political accountability.
  • Discussions about international influences and the role of external institutions in democratic stability (e.g., Global engagement with military and NGOs).

Historical and Future Perspectives

  • Present reflections on historical reversals of democracy to understand current events.
  • The role of international relations and cooperation in maintaining democracy.
  • Remaining optimistic about democracy through historical examples of resilience and revival in the face of backsliding.

Conclusion

  • Growing awareness of democratic backsliding in various political contexts.
  • Importance of continued research and discourse on the methods to prevent erosion of democracy.