Geopolitical Foundations of Russia and China

Russia: Geographic Scale and the Vulnerability of the North European Plain

Covering a vast expanse of $65 \text{ million square miles}$ ($17 \text{ million sq km}$), Russia holds the title of the largest country in the world. To put its size into perspective, it is twice the size of the United States of America and $70 \text{ times}$ the size of the United Kingdom. This massive territory spans $11 \text{ different time zones}$ and shares borders with $14 \text{ nations}$. Despite this immense landmass, Russia's population is relatively small at only $144 \text{ million}$, which is significantly less than the population of China, which exceeds one billion people.

The primary geographical concern for Russia lies to its west: the North European Plain. This flat area begins as a narrow corridor in Poland, bracketed by mountains on one side and the sea on the other. However, as the plain moves toward the Russian border, it widens significantly, taking on a shape reminiscent of a slice of pizza. This wide expanse is notoriously difficult to defend compared to the narrow gap in Poland. Consequently, throughout history, Russian leaders have attempted to control the "thin end of the wedge" to protect this inherent weak point in national defense.

The Historical Evolution of the Russian State

Russia's journey to becoming the world's largest nation began with a small group of tribes in the ninth century. These tribes coalesced to form the Kievan Rus, the ancestors of modern Russians, based in the city of Kiev and its surrounding areas (now modern-day Ukraine). In the thirteenth century, Mongol warriors on horseback invaded from the south and east, eventually overpowering the Kievan Rus. This invasion caused a shift in the center of power eastward to the Grand Principality of Muscovy, which is now Moscow.

The landscape around Moscow was flat, offering no natural barriers such as mountains or deserts to deter attackers. In 1547, Ivan the Terrible became the first Tsar (emperor) of Russia. Recognizing the lack of natural defenses, he pioneered a strategy of using attack as a form of defense. He began conquering neighboring lands to expand Russian territory and establish security buffers. Over the following century, Russia expanded east past the Ural Mountains into Siberia and south toward the Caspian Sea. These expansions provided natural barriers: invading over mountains or across seas became difficult, and any attacking army would face the challenge of very long supply lines, making the transport of food and weapons nearly impossible.

Expansionism and the Defense Against Western Invasions

During the eighteenth century, Russia continued its outward growth, reaching the Pacific Ocean to the east and the Carpathian Mountains to the west. This expansion included the conquest of Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, cementing the Russian Empire's status as a great European power. Historically, many nations have attempted to exploit the flat North European Plain to invade Russia. Polish soldiers occupied Moscow from $1610$ to $1612$ but were eventually expelled following a series of uprisings.

In $1708$, Sweden launched an invasion. The Russian army utilized their vast territory to their advantage by retreating and employing scorched-earth tactics—destroying crops and livestock so the enemy could not use them. The Swedish army, unable to restock supplies during the harsh winter, suffered massive casualties and was defeated. Napoleon Bonaparte attempted a similar invasion in $1812$. Although his French army reached Moscow, the distance required to bring supplies was unsustainable. As winter approached, the starving French forces were forced into a disastrous retreat.

This pattern repeated during the Second World War. In $1941$, Germany launched a surprise summer attack. Despite initial gains, they could not fully defeat the Russian army. The combination of the Russian winter and the exhaustion of supplies eventually forced the German retreat. By the end of the war in $1945$, Russia expanded further, controlling many countries in Eastern and Central Europe as the Soviet Union. This entity stretched from the Pacific to Berlin and from the Arctic to the borders of Afghanistan. However, when the Soviet Union dissolved at the end of the twentieth century, Russia lost its western territories and the protective mountain barriers, leading to modern-day anxieties regarding the vulnerability of the North European Plain.

Maritime Challenges and the Strategic Necessity of Warm-Water Ports

Russia's northern geography presents significant maritime challenges. Many of its northern ports freeze during the winter, trapping vessels in thick ice. Even Vladivostok, Russia's largest Pacific port, remains ice-locked for several months each year. For a nation to maintain status as a global power, it must be able to move its navy freely and use sea routes for trade, which is far more cost-effective than land or air transport. Consequently, Russia has historically sought a warm-water port in the south with year-round access to the open ocean.

For many years, Russia leased a base for part of its navy at Sevastopol in Crimea, Ukraine. Sevastopol is a warm-water port on the Black Sea that provides a route through the Mediterranean Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. This arrangement was stable while Ukraine and Russia maintained a friendly relationship. However, in $2014$, when Ukraine moved toward signing agreements with the European Union (EU), tensions escalated. Fearing the loss of its strategic naval access, Russia took control of Crimea to secure its only warm-water port.

Natural Resources as Geopolitical Leverage

Russia is exceptionally rich in natural resources, particularly oil and gas. While the landscape of Siberia and the Russian Far East is harsh and difficult for human habitation, it serves as the country's "treasure chest." Russia is currently the world's second-largest supplier of natural gas, following the USA. It supplies more than a quarter of Europe's oil and gas through an extensive network of pipelines.

This resource wealth provides Russia with significant diplomatic power. Countries in close proximity to Russia often depend heavily on these supplies, and Russia can influence these relationships by offering lower energy prices to friendly nations. For example, Finland often receives better energy deals than the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). Some nations are extremely vulnerable: Latvia, Slovakia, Finland, and Estonia are $100\%$ reliant on Russian gas, while Germany receives approximately half ($50\%$) of its gas from Russia. This dependency forces these nations to be cautious in their interactions with Russia to avoid supply shut-offs.

The Cold War and the Potential of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Following World War II, the Soviet Union's adoption of communism led to the Cold War, a period of hostility and fear between the Soviet Union and the West (the USA and Western Europe). Although they never engaged in direct combat, both sides remained prepared for an attack. When the Soviet Union collapsed in $1991$, Eastern European countries broke free and sought closer ties with the West, leaving Russia concerned about former enemies approaching its borders.

One potential shift in this energy-dependent relationship is the development of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The USA produces significant quantities of gas that could serve as an alternative for Europe. To be transported across the Atlantic, gas must be processed into liquid form at an LNG plant ($1$), shipped across the ocean ($2$), and then returned to a gaseous state at specialized ports in Europe ($3$) before being sent through pipelines to customers ($4$). New LNG ports and pipelines are currently being built in countries like Poland and Lithuania to reduce reliance on Russia, demonstrating how technology can occasionally overcome geographical constraints.

China: Natural Defenses and Internal Connectivity

China's geography is characterized by formidable natural defenses: the Gobi Desert to the north, the Himalayas to the west, and thick jungles to the southwest (bordering Myanmar). Despite these land barriers, China historically lacked a strong navy to protect its long coastline. To compensate for geographic challenges and unify its landmass, China built massive human-made structures.

The Great Wall of China, built over many centuries (the earliest parts dating back $2,500 \text{ years}$), was designed to protect against northern invaders. It is the longest human-made structure on Earth, totaling $13,000 \text{ miles}$ ($21,000 \text{ km}$). Additionally, the Grand Canal, the world's longest human-made waterway at $1,115 \text{ miles}$ ($1,794 \text{ km}$), was started in the fifth century BCE. It successfully linked the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, allowing for the transport of goods and the unification of northern and southern China.

Population Pressures and the Chinese Heartland

China possesses the world's largest population, totaling $1.4 \text{ billion}$ people. This presents a massive challenge for food security. More than $40\%$ of China's farmland is either polluted or has poor soil, largely due to the country's manufacturing and factory growth. China must balance its industrial output with its need to produce enough food to avoid a national crisis.

Chinese civilization began approximately $4,000 \text{ years ago}$ on the North China Plain, which is considered the heartland. This region saw the birth of farming, paper-making, and the invention of gunpowder. The North China Plain is highly fertile, featuring two main rivers and a climate that allows for the harvest of rice and soybeans twice per year. This productivity supported the rapid growth of the Han people. Around $3,500 \text{ years ago}$, during the Shang Dynasty, the Han expanded their territory to create buffer zones against surrounding tribes. By the end of the Tang Empire (roughly $1,000 \text{ years ago}$), China had reached the grasslands of Central Asia and the South China Sea.

Invasions and the Strategic Importance of Tibet

Throughout its history, China faced numerous invasions. The Mongols defeated China in $1279$ and established the Yuan Dynasty. In the seventeenth century, the Manchu people from Manchuria attacked. The nineteenth century brought European powers and the Opium Wars with the British and French. In the twentieth century, Japan invaded twice ($1931$ and $1937$), occupying much of the heartland until their defeat at the end of WWII. To prevent future invasions, China secured Xinjiang in the eighteenth century and took control of Tibet in $1951$.

Tibet is strategically vital for two main reasons. First, it acts as a "natural Great Wall" against India. The Himalayan Mountains make it difficult for either nation to attack the other; without Tibet, China would lose this protection and India would hold the "higher ground" of the Tibetan Plateau. Second, Tibet is the source of China's three great rivers: the Yellow, the Yangtze, and the Mekong. If India controlled Tibet, they would effectively control China's water supply. To secure its hold, China has built roads and railways into Tibet and encouraged the migration of millions of Han people to the region to ensure it remains part of China.

Maritime Ambitions and the South China Sea

As the world's leading manufacturer, China now requires secure access to global shipping lanes for both exporting products and importing essential resources like oil, gas, and precious metals. Most of these ships must pass through the South China Sea. To protect these routes, China claims control over much of the sea, its islands, and its reefs, leading to disputes with neighbors such as Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

To solidify its claims, China has engaged in island-building projects. For instance, Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands—once just rocks and coral—now houses a port and a runway for fighter jets. China is also in the midst of a massive shipbuilding program. While it will take time to rival the United States Navy, which currently monitors the world's shipping lanes, China's navy is growing rapidly to protect its expanding global interests and territorial claims.