social factors that can determine the outcome of general election - age

age can be used to determine what voters vote -  lower - labour, older - conservative The reason for this may be because older people are usually better-off and/or more fearful of change and therefore value the stability the Conservatives offer.

  • Older voters show much higher levels of turnout and political parties have tended to develop manifestos that reflect this.  

  • Younger people seek change and ‘progress’, hence a stronger liking for Labour, particularly in the 18-24 demographic.  

  • However younger voters have also tended to be less partisan / loyal to a party overall




  • 1997 election -

  •  18-24 yr olds – Cons 27%, Labour 49%, Lib Dems 16%

  • 25-34 yr olds – Cons 28%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 16%.  (Labour share of vote in this demographic increased by 12%)

  • +65 yr olds – Cons 36%, Lab 31%, Lib Dems 17% 

  • (When Cons lose the over 65s vote, they’re in real trouble!  Note one source says Cons won  category, but the figures here are from IPSOS MORI data)

  • Labour vote increased 12% in the 25-44 yr old demographic, but only 4% in 55-64 age range.  Overall Lab had 20% lead for all under 45s

  • Cons vote collapsed most of all (by 16%) in the 45-54 age bracket



  • 2017 election

  • Labour had a 47% lead over Cons in the 18-19 year old demographic.  Over 50% of 25-34 year olds voted Labour and 66% of 18–24 year olds

  • Biggest swing to Labour came from the 25-34 age group

  • Cons had a 50% lead over Lab in the 70+ year old demographic

  • A voter is 9% more likely to vote Cons for every 10 years they age.  The cross over age where a voter is more likely to vote Cons than Lab is 47



2019

  • The age the average person voted Conservative over Labour was 39.  

  • In 2017 this age was 47 - so a significant fall of 8 years in the age



2024

  • The YouGov 2024 Report stated “Age was a key dividing line in the last few elections, and the same is true for 2024 with younger voters being more likely to vote Labour and older voters more likely to vote for the Conservatives”. 

  • n each age range below 50, between 41% - 46% voted Labour.  This fell to 34% of 50-59 year olds, 28% of 60-69 year olds and 20% of 70+ year olds.

  • For Conservatives unsurprisingly the reverse was true - winning just 8% of 18-30 year olds, 12% of those in their 30s, 17% of those in their 40s, 24% of those in their 50s, 33% of those in their 60s and 46% of 70+.



age isn’t predictable determining what voter’s vote

  • Cons vote collapsed most of all (by 16%) in the 45-54 age bracket



  • - e.g. in 1979 or 1992, the percentage of 18-24 year olds voting Conservative or Labour was broadly the same.  



  • Even if we know the young vote one way, and older people another… the 35-44, 45-54 and 55-65 groups have all swung considerably 2015-24.  

    • The 35-44 group has ranged from a 13% Labour lead, to a draw (except for 2024 which was a landslide Labour victory and 24% Labour lead in 

    • The 45-54 age range has twice been a 3% lead for the Conservatives in 2017, but then followed by an 18% lead for the Conservatives in 2019, and then a 14% lof Labour in 2024

    • The 55-64 age range varied between a 6% - 22% Conservative lead (before a 5% lead for labour in 2024).

  • The election results will surely be decided mainly in this big demographic, even if the older and younger generations continue to vote in their polarised way?



  • n 1988 labour achieved a 5% ead over the conservatives in voters aged 65+ helping blair with is landslide victory. while in thacthers 1979 election victory the tories achieved a 1% leader over labur among 18-24 year olds. currently the dominance of conservative party oler voters fives them a major electoral advantage as they are more likely to vote.