2026 International Affairs and Current Affairs Update

Suggested Approach to Tackle Current Affairs Paper

• General Overview: The Current Affairs (CA) paper covers contemporary events occurring during the study period, alongside past events with continued relevance. Continuity in study is essential.

• Paper Layout: The exam consists of three sections:

  • Section 1: Four essay-type questions ($50$ marks each); candidates choose two. Length: $250\text{--}300$ words each.

  • Section 2: Twelve questions ($30$ marks each); candidates choose ten. Length: $150$ words each.

  • Section 3: Seven questions ($20$ marks each); candidates choose five. Length: up to $100$ words each.

• Topic Categorization:

  • National Issues: Includes Economy, Finance & Budget; Constitutional & Political Affairs (Bills/Acts/Ordinances); Defense Matters (Commissions, Reforms, Policy); Internal Security; Aerospace; Science & Technology; and Sports/Miscellaneous.

  • International Issues: Focuses on events affecting peace (conflicts/terrorism); social issues; world economy; advancements in science/tech; political upheavals (treaties/agreements); and strategic issues impacting National Security.

• Statistical Analysis and Trends:

  • National and International affairs weightage varies between $30\%\text{--}45\%$.

  • Economic, financial, and developmental issues account for $10\%\text{--}15\%$.

  • Sports and miscellaneous topics typically get $2\%\text{--}10\%\%$.

• Weaknesses and Techniques:

  • Common Failures: Selective study leads to shallow answers. Verbose, superfluous writing without addressing the specific prompt is a major weakness.

  • Answering Technique: Plan sequences for logical flow. Adhere to Basic Rules of Staff Duty (SD). Paraphrase answers to match the question structure (e.g., if a question has three parts, structure the answer into three clear parts).

  • Recommendations: Clearly separate suggestions or opinions from statements of fact. Start each answer on a fresh page. Section II requires $1\text{--}1.5$ pages ($15\text{--}20$ lines), and Section III requires half a page ($7\text{--}8$ lines).

Chapter 1: Afghanistan–Pakistan Tensions and Strategic Implications

• Current Security Situation: Relations have deteriorated due to cross-border firing, airstrikes, and militant activity. The primary flashpoint is the Durand Line, which Pakistan recognizes as the international border, but Afghanistan disputes.

• Resurgence of the TTP: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has intensified attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Pakistan claims TTP operates from Afghan sanctuaries, accusing the Taliban of tacit support. The Taliban denies this but shows limited enforcement capacity.

• Militarization: Pakistan's attempts to fence the border are viewed by the Taliban as a move to legitimize an unacceptable boundary, leading to frequent dismantling of fencing infrastructure.

• Structural Causes:

  • Strategic Divergence: Pakistan expected the Taliban to provide "strategic depth" and suppress anti-Pakistan groups. The Taliban, however, seeks strategic autonomy and is driven by Afghan nationalism.

  • Strategic Blowback: Pakistan's historical use of militant proxies has resulted in a security dilemma where those former proxies (TTP) now threaten Pakistan internally.

• Implications for India:

  • Strategic Space: Pakistan's preoccupation with its western border provides India temporary strategic relief and operational flexibility along the eastern border.

  • Terrorism Spillover: Instability may allow groups like Al-Qaeda to rebuild, potentially risking radicalization and proxy violence in India.

  • Engagement Strategy: India maintains a pragmatic, limited engagement with the Taliban, providing humanitarian aid and continuing specific development projects to avoid a geopolitical vacuum.

  • Connectivity Barriers: Instability hinders India's ambitions for trade corridors and energy projects in Central Asia passing through Afghanistan.

Chapter 2: Bangladesh Dynamics and the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty

• Ganges Water Sharing Treaty: Signed in December $1996$ for $30$ years; it expires at the end of $2026$. The treaty manages dry-season flows ($\text{Jan--May}$).

• Sharing Formula (measured at Farakka Barrage):

  • High Flow ($\ge 75,000$ cusecs): $50/50$ split between India and Bangladesh.

  • Moderate Flow ($70,000\text{--}75,000$ cusecs): Bangladesh gets $35,000$ cusecs; India takes the remainder.

  • Low Flow (< 70,000 cusecs): India gets a fixed $35,000$ cusecs; Bangladesh takes the remainder.

• Institutional Mechanisms:

  • Joint Rivers Commission (JRC): Established in $1972$; covers over $50$ shared rivers. Recent meetings focused on a "reset" of water sharing arrangements.

  • Technical Committee on Ganga: Expert body monitoring flows (Farakka) in $10$-day periods.

• Political Transition: The installation of a Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government marks a shift from the Awami League. While historically less accommodating of India, current signals suggest "managed pragmatism" due to economic interdependence (power imports, transit routes).

• Military Cooperation with China:

  • UAV Manufacturing (2026): Agreement signed with a Chinese state firm to build a drone factory near the Indian border.

  • Naval Presence: China is assisting in developing a submarine base and naval infrastructure. China remains Bangladesh's largest arms supplier (e.g., VT-5 light tanks delivered in $2026$).

  • Golden Friendship-2024: Recent joint military exercises between China and Bangladesh focused on counter-terrorism.

Chapter 3: China: Economic Transition, Military Modernization, and Regional Strategy

• Taiwan and Xi Jinping: Xi's assertion that "reunification is unstoppable" targets Taiwan ($\text{Republic of China}$). Strategic pressure includes incursions into the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and simulated blockades. Global trade is heavily at risk due to Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance (specifically TSMC).

• 2026 GDP Growth Target: Set at a over $30$-year low of $4.5\text{--}5\%$.

  • Drivers of Slowdown: Real estate crisis (Evergrande/Country Garden); demographic decline (shrunken workforce); weak domestic consumption; and high local government debt.

  • Strategic Shift: China is prioritizing "quality over quantity," focusing on Innovation, Technology, and the Green economy.

• Border Infrastructure Expansion (2026–2030): Part of the $15^{th}$ Five-Year Plan.

  • Includes a $394\,\text{km}$ highway in the Xinjiang Tianshan region and upgrades to three key highways in Tibet.

  • Military Mobility: Enhance troop deployment speed to disputed zones (e.g., Aksai Chin and Line of Actual Control).

• Technological Warfare:

  • "Atlas" Drone Swarm system: Distributed AI-enabled swarms designed to saturate air defenses. Features include self-healing networks and multi-domain collaboration.

  • Ocean Floor Mapping: Extensive data collection on seabed topography and salinity across the Pacific, Indian, and Arctic Oceans to support submarine stealth and anti-submarine warfare (ASW).

• Administrative Consolidation: Creation of a new county-level entity in Xinjiang with jurisdiction extending into Parts of POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir). India has rejected this move as "mischievous and fictitious."

Chapter 4: Myanmar and the Arakan Army (AA)

• Political Status: Military rule under Min Aung Hlaing continues. The military controls limited territory while rebels dominate large areas, causing a severe humanitarian crisis.

• Arakan Army (AA): Led by Twan Mrat Naing, it has established the "Arakan People’s Authority" in Rakhine State. It seeks a confederal or highly autonomous model, not necessarily immediate secession.

• Implications for India: Instability threatens the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India–Myanmar–Thailand Highway. India faces dilemmas regarding the Free Movement Regime and border fencing vs. tribal cross-border ties.

Chapter 5: Nepal: 2026 General Election and the Mansarovar Yatra

• 2026 Election: Deicsive victory for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) led by Balendra Shah (approx. $182$ of $275$ seats). Driven by youth and anti-corruption sentiment.

• Kailash Mansarovar Yatra Dispute: Traditionally used routes through Lipulekh Pass (Uttarakhand), Nathu La (Sikkim), and Simikot–Hilsa (Nepal).

• Nepal's Objection: Nepal claims the Lipulekh Pass region (Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura) and views India's road inauguration there as a violation of sovereignty. Historically, Nepal relies on the yatra for tourism revenue via the Simikot-Hilsa route.

Chapter 6: Pakistan Internal Crisis and Water Sovereignty

• Internal Security: Multi-front pressure from the TTP (western provinces) and BLA (Balochistan). BLA targets CPEC infrastructure.

• Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) Disputes: Pakistan objects to Indian hydropower projects on the Chenab River: Kiru ($624\,\text{MW}$, target $2026$), Kwar ($540\,\text{MW}$, target $2028$), Pakal Dul ($1,000\,\text{MW}$), and Ratle.

• Legal Proceedings: Pakistan has urged the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to scrutinize these projects for "run-of-the-river" violations. India has boycotted the PCA and neutral expert proceedings, citing a lack of jurisdiction.

• Military Support to Saudi Arabia: Pakistan deployed over $10,000$ troops and air assets to Saudi Arabia for the protection of critical infrastructure, indicating continued military engagement despite economic fragility.

Chapter 7: Sri Lanka: Structural Energy Integration

• HVDC Interconnection: Proposed undersea transmission cables (High-Voltage Direct Current) linking Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka's coast to enable seamless power trade.

• Trincomalee Energy Hub: Joint redevelopment of the oil tank farm (one of South Asia's largest) and development of refining and renewable energy projects.

• Economic Stabilization: India provided assisted over $4\,\text{billion}$ during the $2022\text{--}23$ economic crisis via credit lines and currency swaps.

Chapter 8: East Asia and Oceania (Australia, NZ, Japan)

• Australia: Collaborative focus on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to monitor the Malacca Strait. Seeks to counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

• New Zealand FTA (April 2026): Provides $100\%$ duty-free access for Indian exports. New Zealand committed to investing around $20\,\text{billion}$ in India over $15$ years and providing $5,000$ work visas annually.

• Japan: Defense spending increase toward $2\%$ of GDP. Acquisition of "counterstrike capabilities" to target enemy bases, signaling a move toward strategic normalization. NSS identifies China as the "greatest strategic challenge."

Chapter 9: West Asia and the Global Energy Crisis

• Iran Resilience: Despite heavy strikes, Iran maintains stability and continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a shift toward managed coexistence with Arab Gulf states.

• Oil Prices: In May $2026$, Brent crude traded at $113\text{--}115\,\text{USD}$ per barrel.

  • Impact on India: Every $10\,\text{USD}$ increase widens the Current Account Deficit (CAD) by $12\text{--}15\,\text{billion}$. The Indian Rupee hit record lows of $\text{ }93.9$ per dollar.

• Hexagon Alliance: Proposed strategic bloc comprising India, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus for Mediterranean-to-Indo-Pacific security and tech cooperation.

• UAE Departure from OPEC: Effective May 1. UAE seeks energy autonomy to maximize production capacity and economic diversification, causing a potential weakening of cartel cohesion.

Chapter 10: Russia–Ukraine War and Canada Normalization

• War Status: A war of attrition necessitating huge industrial capacity. NATO has revitalized, with spending moving toward $5\%$ of GDP by $2035$. It has highlighted the centrality of drone and precision warfare.

• Canada: Rebuilding security and intelligence cooperation with India after earlier diplomatic strain, focusing on counter-terrorism and online radicalization.

Chapter 11: European Union and Germany Relations

• Trade Bazooka: Journalistic shorthand for the EU Anti-Coercion Instrument, allowing tariffs and sanctions against non-EU countries using economic pressure (e.g., China's pressure on Lithuania).

• Germany MoUs (Jan 2026): $19$ agreements signed under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Highlights include the India–Germany Semiconductor Partnership and focus on Green Hydrogen/Ammonia.

• India-EU FTA: EU will eliminate tariffs on over $99\%$ of Indian exports (textiles, leather). India will cut duties on luxury cars (from $110\%$ to $10\%$ for $250,000$ units/year) and premium wines (from $150\%$ to $20\%$).

Chapter 12: United States: Monroe Doctrine and Board of Peace

• Monroe Doctrine (2025 NSS): Revival under the Trump administration to reassert US pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere and exclude Chinese/Russian/Iranian influence in Latin America.

• Board of Peace (BoP): A US-led mini-lateral organization (2025–26) chaired by Donald Trump.

  • Requirement: Permanent membership requires a contribution of approx. $1\,\text{billion}$. US pledged $10\,\text{billion}$.

  • Function: Focus on Gaza reconstruction and peacekeeping as a parallel mechanism to the UN.

• MAGA Ideology: Economic nationalism, border restriction, and "America First" foreign policy favoring national sovereignty over multilateralism.

Chapter 13: International Groupings and Climate Governance

• SCO (Bishkek 2026): Renewed focus on RATS (Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure). India called for zero tolerance against state-sponsored terrorism.

• COP30 (Belém, Brazil 2025):

  • Belém Package: $29$ decisions to accelerate Paris Agreement implementation.

  • Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF): A payment-for-performance fund aiming to mobilize $125\,\text{billion}$.

  • India's Stand: Demanded full implementation of Article 9.1 (mandatory finance from developed nations) and mobilization of the $1.3\,\text{trillion}$ goal adopted at COP29.

• BRICS Expansion: Now includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. Represents a significant share of global energy resources but faces internal divergences.

Chapter 14: Maritime Security: Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz