Organized Violence: Trends and Analysis (1989-2023)

Organized Violence 1989-2023

Overview of 2023 Trends

• In 2023, fatalities in organized violence decreased for the first time since a rapid increase began in 2020, halving from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023.

• Despite the decline, these figures remain among the highest since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, surpassed only by 2022 and 2021.

• The reduction is largely attributed to the end of the Ethiopian intrastate conflict, which had been the most lethal since 2020, accounting for approximately 60% of battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021.

• Fatalities decreased across all three categories of violence (state-based, non-state, and one-sided).

• Active state-based armed conflicts increased by three, reaching a record high of 59.

• Non-state conflicts and one-sided violence decreased compared to 2022, but non-state conflict fatalities remained historically high, driven by organized crime groups.

• Organized crime groups, lacking political goals and primarily motivated by economic gain, have fueled non-state conflict escalation over the past decade, especially around drug smuggling routes and in urban areas.

State-Based Armed Conflict

• Fatalities in state-based armed conflicts decreased significantly from 2022 but remain among the highest since 1989.

• UCDP recorded over 122,500 battle-related deaths in 2023, less than half of the nearly 277,000 in 2022.

• 2023 was the third deadliest year since 1989, after 2022 and 2021.

• The conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region accounted for approximately 60% of the battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021.

• Fatality figures for the conflict between the Ethiopian government and TPLF have been revised upwards:

  • Around 62,000 in 2022.

  • 115,000 in 2021.

  • 19,000 in 2020.

• Ukraine replaced Ethiopia as the world’s deadliest conflict in 2023, with nearly 71,000 fatalities.

• The conflict between Israel and Hamas caused over 22,000 fatalities in the last three months of 2023.

• The number of state-based armed conflicts rose from 56 in 2022 to 59 in 2023, the highest since 1946.

• State-based armed conflicts have remained at historically high levels since 2015, with annual tallies ranging from 52 to 56, compared to 31 to 39 between 2000 and 2013.

• UCDP recorded nine wars in 2023 (conflicts with at least 1,000 battle-related deaths during the year), the highest count since 2017. Five occurred in Africa, two in the Middle East, and one each in Asia and Europe.

Regional Conflict Trends

• Violence drastically decreased in Africa and, to a lesser extent, in Europe due to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia and a significant decrease in civilian fatalities in Ukraine.

• The peace agreement in Ethiopia caused divisions between the Ethiopian government and the Fano militia in the Amhara region, leading to a new armed struggle that poses a risk of further escalation.

• Africa remained the region with the highest number of state-based armed conflicts, increasing by 1 to 28.

• The deadliest conflict in Africa was the new war in Sudan with RSF, causing over 5,200 state-based fatalities.

• Wars in Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria escalated further in 2023, with the war in Burkina Faso seeing the largest increase in violence.

• Despite the high number of fatalities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (nearly 71,000), violence in Europe decreased overall. Combatant fatalities increased, but civilian deaths decreased by 93% as violence shifted away from major population centers.

• The Middle East was the only region where violence increased, primarily due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, which overturned positive developments from 2022.

• The conflict in Yemen dropped below the threshold for war for the first time since 2013, due to an informal ceasefire during talks between Saudi Arabia and the Ansarallah movement.

• Asia continued to record the lowest numbers of fatalities from state-based armed conflicts since 1989, with around 4,300 fatalities in both 2022 and 2023.

Conflict Internationalization

• Internationalized intrastate conflicts, where parties receive troop support from an external state, have declined in recent years but remain at historically high levels, with 20 recorded in 2023.

• The reduction is attributed to Western disengagement from combating transnational jihadist groups.

• External troop involvement tends to prolong conflicts and make them more lethal, with the average number of battle-deaths per conflict year being over four times higher compared to non-internationalized intrastate conflicts.

• The number of interstate conflicts decreased from three in 2022 to two in 2023 but has been occurring more frequently in recent years.

• Internationalized intrastate conflict, where external states support non-state actors fighting against governments, has increased in the past decade.

Non-State Conflict

• In 2023, UCDP documented 75 ongoing non-state conflicts, resulting in nearly 20,900 fatalities, a reduction compared to 2022.

• Fatalities from non-state conflicts remain at historically high levels, with the past decade comprising the ten most violent years on record.

• Organized crime groups predominantly drive this trend; conflicts involving them accounted for 79% of the total fatalities in non-state conflict in 2023.

• Europe exhibits the least documented instances of non-state violence, followed by Asia. The Americas have emerged as the region most severely affected, primarily from clashes between criminal gangs.

• Nine of the ten deadliest non-state conflicts occurred in the Americas in 2023, with eight in Mexico. The Jalisco Cartel New Generation (CJNG) was involved in six of these conflicts.

• For four consecutive years, the CJNG conflict against the Sinaloa Cartel has been the deadliest non-state conflict in the world, causing between 4,000 and 5,500 fatalities annually.

• For the first time since 2014, an active non-state conflict was registered in Europe, a turf war between two rival gangs in Marseille, France, where a turf war between two rival gangs engaged in the drug trade claimed nearly 50 lives throughout the year.

• Non-state conflicts tend to be less lethal than state-based armed conflicts, with over 60% resulting in fewer than 100 fatalities annually.

• The number of non-state conflicts causing 1,000 deaths or more per year has increased since 2016, with four to eight such conflicts occurring annually.

One-Sided Violence

• In 2023, there was a notable decline in one-sided violence, both in terms of the number of actors involved and civilian casualties.

• UCDP recorded a decrease from 49 to 42 actors involved in one-sided violence, marking the lowest figure since 2019.

• Intentional killings of civilians decreased to at least 10,200 in 2023 from almost 12,000 in the preceding year.

• Killings decreased by over half among state actors but intensified among non-state actors, reaching the highest levels since 2015.

• For the ninth consecutive year, IS was responsible for the most one-sided killings globally, though total fatalities dropped from at least 3,800 in 2022 to almost 2,200 in 2023.

• The second deadliest actor in one-sided violence was RSF in Sudan, responsible for the deaths of at least 1,700 civilians following the outbreak of civil war in April 2023.

• On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched ‘Operation al-Aqsa Flood’ from Gaza into Israel, resulting in one of the most lethal days in terms of one-sided violence, with at least 670 civilians killed by Hamas.

• 13 state actors were responsible for one-sided violence in 2023, with the most prominent ones including the governments of Myanmar, Burkina Faso, and Russia.

Trends in Organized Crime Violence

• Organized crime violence has primarily been explored sociologically and criminologically, remaining understudied in peace and conflict research frameworks.

• Since 2018, organized crime groups have dominated UCDP’s non-state conflict category.

• Defined as formally organized groups primarily focused on economic gain, they lack the political goals of rebel groups.

• Fatalities from conflicts between organized crime groups surpass those of conflicts involving rebel groups, underscoring the significant role of economic motives.

• Organized crime groups tend to establish parallel governance structures in areas of limited state presence through co-optation, intimidation, and bribery.

• In UCDP data, non-state violence involving organized crime groups is most prevalent in Latin America and the Caribbean.

• Organized crime violence has been increasing since the mid-2000s, with significant peaks in 2018 and 2021, driven by escalations in violence between Mexican cartels and Brazilian gangs.

• Conflicts typically revolve around territorial control, resources, and smuggling routes, characterized by brutal acts of violence.

• Violence is particularly prevalent in urban settings, with groups establishing governance structures in marginalized neighborhoods or slums.

• Conflicts often cluster around drug smuggling routes, such as in Mexican cities bordering the US and port cities in Brazil.

Evolution of Organized Crime Groups

• Characterized by continuous cycles of strategic alliances and fragmentation in response to internal and external pressures, often triggering increased violence.

• Arrests of leadership figures often trigger organized crime violence, as potential successors attempt to fill the power vacuum.

Conclusion

• In 2023, fatalities from organized violence decreased for the first time since 2020, attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region.

• The number of active state-based armed conflicts increased to a peak of 59.

• Non-state conflict and one-sided violence saw a small decrease, although fatalities from non-state conflicts remained historically high.

• Organized crime groups play a predominant role in non-state conflict, yet organized crime-related violence remains relatively understudied in peace and conflict research.

The document primarily focuses on trends and data related to organized violence from 1989-2023, without explicitly detailing specific theories or concepts. However, we can infer several key themes and concepts:

1. State-Based Armed Conflict: Conflicts involving states, their causes, and trends in fatalities.

2. Non-State Conflict: Conflicts between non-state actors, increasingly driven by organized crime.

3. One-Sided Violence: Violence perpetrated by state or non-state actors against civilians.

4. Conflict Internationalization: The impact of external state involvement (troop support) on conflict duration and lethality.

5. Organized Crime Violence: The increasing role of organized crime groups in driving non-state conflicts, particularly for economic gain.

6. Regional Conflict Trends: Analysis of how conflict patterns vary across different geographic regions (Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia).

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