Thrower 2017 AJPS- To Revoke or Not Revoke- The Political Determinants of Executive Order Longevity

Introduction

  • Author: Sharece Thrower, Vanderbilt University

  • Focus: Longevity of executive orders and what contributes to it.

  • Key concept: While executive orders allow presidents to make unilateral decisions, they can also be easily revoked by subsequent administrations.

  • Methodology: Survival analysis was used to evaluate orders revoked from 1937 to 2013.

Theoretical Framework

  • Deficiency Identified: Limited research on how long executive orders remain effective. Most research focuses on policy formation.

  • Key Questions:

    • Why do some executive orders last longer than others?

    • Under what circumstances do presidents choose to revoke these orders?

  • Key Findings: Orders created during ideological discord tend to endure longer because they reflect moderate compromises.

Characteristics of Executive Orders

  • Definition: A unilateral directive from the president instructing agencies on implementation of laws.

  • Historical Context: First issued in 1862, systematically recorded since 1937.

  • Legal Viewpoint: Considered legally binding as long as they don't violate existing statutes or the Constitution.

  • Revocation and Amendments:

    • Executive orders can be revoked entirely, amended, or superseded.

    • 25% of executive orders were revoked between 1937 and 2013.

Factors Influencing Executive Order Longevity

1. Time-Invariant Traits

  • Ideological Influence:

    • Orders issued under divided government face lower risks of revocation.

  • Authority of Executive Orders:

    • Those backed by strong statutory authority last longer.

    • Distinction between strong statutory authority versus weak constitutional authority is crucial.

2. Time-Variant Changes

  • Political Costs:

    • Revocation is less likely during election years when political costs are high.

    • Presidents with high public approval are less likely to revoke orders.

  • Ideological Drift:

    • New administrations are more likely to revoke orders issued by previous administrations reflecting opposing ideological beliefs.

Methodology

  • Data Collection: Data gathered from National Archives, focusing on executive orders issued from 1937 to 2013.

  • Analysis Approach: Cox proportional hazards model employed to test hypotheses on executive order longevity.

Empirical Evidence

Findings on Revocation

  • Ideological Compromise Hypothesis (H1):

    • Orders issued in divided government conditions have a 20% reduced risk of revocation.

  • EO Authority Hypothesis (H2):

    • Orders based on recent statutory authority face a 30% lower hazard of revocation.

    • Foreign policy-related orders show a 24% decrease in the risk of revocation compared to domestic orders.

  • Political Costs Hypothesis (H3):

    • Orders are less likely to be revoked during election years and if the current president has low political capital.

  • Opposing President Hypothesis (H4):

    • Orders issued by presidents of opposing political parties have increased risks of revocation.

Discussion and Implications

  • Implications for Policy Makers: Understanding the longevity of executive orders can inform future presidential decisions.

  • Exploration of Future Research Areas:

    • Impact of executive orders on legislative agendas and policymaking processes of successive administrations.

    • Investigate patterns in policy revocation and attempts to maintain lingering orders.

References

  • Comprehensive list of literature that includes articles examining the methodologies and historical development of executive orders, agency termination, and public policy.