On Democratic Backsliding by Nancy Bermeo

Nancy Bermeo is a noted political scientist, holding the Nuffield Chair of Comparative Politics at the University of Oxford and serving as a PIIRS Senior Scholar at Princeton University.
Bermeo co-edited the book titled "Parties, Movements and Democracy in the Developing World" (Cambridge University Press, 2016).
Despite extensive scholarly focus on the reasons for the breakdown of democracies, comparatively little attention has been paid to the processes by which they break down.

Democratic Backsli
ding: A term often used yet rarely dissected in-depth. It refers broadly to the state-led reduction or eradication of political institutions that underpin existing democracies.
- Political institutions that support democracy are numerous and include those that allow individuals to express preferences and ensure these are counted by elected representatives.
The ambiguity of the concept can lead to confusion, likened to an opaque, unwieldy steamer trunk; however, unpacking it reveals much.*
- It necessitates specifying its meaning for practical use, given the multitude of processes and actors involved (e.g., monarchs, presidents, military leaders).

Analytical Focus: The essay identifies six major forms of democratic backsliding, noting that while some overt forms are declining, more subtle forms are on the rise, often legitimised through the very democratic institutions that had been strengthened by democracy promoters.
Historical Trends: A historical perspective on backsliding shows it has evolved, particularly moving away from outright violent coups (more common during the Cold War) towards subtler variations.

Coups d'état: Historical data show a significant decline in illegal attempts by military or state elites to remove a sitting executive.
The probability of democracy experiencing a coup reached a thirty-year low post-1995. Even successful coups have become sharply less common, reaching near-zero probability by the early 2000s.

Executive Coups: These occur when an elected leader suspends the constitution to consolidate power.
- Examples from the 1990s include several nations; since then, only Niger has experienced a coup of this kind.

The expansion of legitimate electoral practices has reduced blatant election-day fraud, although electoral malpractice persists overall. Observers note that direct manipulation has become subtler and less common.

Promissory Coups: New forms that frame the removal of elected governments as defensive of democracy. They promise to restore democracy through elections.
- The rate of successful coups in this category increased from 35 per cent before 1990 to 85 per cent after.
- Historical examples show that few of these coups lead to genuine democratic restoration or competitive elections, despite initial promises.

Takes place without replacing the executive and involves the systematic diminution of checks on executive power.
- The process relies on legal frameworks, such as constitutional amendments. The behaviour of countries such as Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan exemplifies this, whereby existing institutions are legally manipulated to fortify executive authority.

Definition: Encompasses a range of tactics to tilt electoral outcomes favourably towards incumbents, such as limiting media access and changing electoral rules to disadvantage opposition.
- Unlike blatant fraud, these manipulations occur well before elections.

Incremental Nature of Backsliding: Modern backsliding tends to be gradual rather than sudden, requiring different methods of academic study and political mobilisation. There's a need for greater focus on how hybrid regimes develop and on the mechanisms underlying the gradual erosion of democracy.
Challenges arise because legal changes may appear benign at first glance, complicating public mobilisation against them, as the alterations may not appear overtly anti-democratic at the outset.

Critical challenges arise from the ambiguities in defining legitimate versus illegitimate actions within democratic frameworks.* Backsliding today often legitimises itself through fundamentally democratic processes (e.g., elections), complicating international responses and engagements.

Current trajectories that may signal a more favourable outlook include the shrinking duration and severity of subsequent authoritarian regimes following democratic breakdowns.
Backsliding can still allow for ongoing electoral competition and civil society responses, which may provide pathways to restore democracy before outright regime change occurs.

The essay emphasises that understanding these varieties and their subtle transformations is crucial to developing effective responses to the crisis of democracy in the contemporary world.