3. Social Beliefs and Judgments_2021

SOCIAL BELIEFS AND JUDGMENTS

  • Presented by: Karel K. Himawan, Ph.D.

  • Email: karel.karsten@uph.edu

Outline

  1. PERCEIVING OUR SOCIAL WORLD

  2. JUDGING OUR SOCIAL WORLD

  3. EXPLAINING OUR SOCIAL WORLD

  4. EXPECTATION OF OUR SOCIAL WORLD

2 BRAIN SYSTEMS (Kahneman, 2011)

  • System 1:

    • Functions automatically and out of awareness

    • Implicit (intuition, gut feeling)

    • Examples: skills, conditioned dispositions

  • System 2:

    • Requires conscious attention and effort

    • Explicit (e.g., names, facts, past experiences)

1. PERCEIVING

Priming

  • Definition: Activating particular associations in memory

  • Influence: Shows how one thought influences another unconsciously

  • Much of our social information processing is automatic.

Priming: Embodied Cognition

  • Explains the mutual influence of bodily sensations on cognitive preferences and social judgments.

  • Example: Shoppers carrying a basket (vs. pushing a cart) were 3x more likely to impulse buy unhealthy items (Van Den Bergh et al., 2011).

The Power of Intuition

  • First impressions about others are usually correct. The better we know someone, the more accurately we read their feelings.

  • Examples of preconceptions:

    • Sports fans seeing referees as biased

    • Candidates viewing news media as unsympathetic.

Belief Perseverance

  • Persistence of initial beliefs even when discredited, as long as an explanation survives.

  • Example: Risk-prone people perceived as braver than others, challenging existing beliefs about bravery and success.

Memory Construction

  • False belief: Memories stored in "drawers" that can be retrieved later.

  • Reality: Memories are constructed at the time of retrieval, influenced by current feelings and expectations.

  • Misinformation effect: Incorporating misleading information into memory after an event.

2. JUDGING

Intuition

  • “The heart has its reasons which reason does not know.” – Pascal

  • Thinking is partly controlled (reflective) and partly automatic (impulsive).

  • Examples:

    • Schemas: mental templates guiding perception and judgment

    • Emotional reactions occurring before deliberate thought.

    • Experienced individuals may intuitively know answers.

Overconfidence Phenomenon

  • Tendency to be more confident than correct and overestimate belief accuracy.

  • Examples:

    • Stockbroker overconfidence regarding trades

    • Political and student overconfidence leading to worse outcomes.

Negativity Bias

  • More influenced by negative than positive information.

  • Example: 100 compliments erased by 1 criticism.

Magical Thinking

  • Unrelated thoughts seen as logically related.

  • Laws of magical thinking:

    1. Law of similarity

    2. Law of opposite

    3. Law of contagion

Illusory Thinking

  • Illusory correlation: Perception of relationships where none exist or exist less than perceived.

  • Illusion of control: Feeling of control over uncontrollable events.

    • Example: People demand more for self-chosen lottery numbers.

  • Regression toward the average: Extreme scores tend to return towards the average.

Preventing Overconfidence

  • Confidence does not equal competence.

  • Strategies:

    • Prompt feedback

    • “Unpack” a task to estimate required time

    • Think of reasons why judgments could be wrong.

Heuristics

  • Definition: Mental shortcuts enabling quick judgments.

  • Types:

    • Representative heuristic: Presuming something belongs to a group based on typical characteristics.

    • Availability heuristic: Judging likelihood based on memory availability; prone to vivid instances.

Case Study: Linda

  • Linda, a 31-year-old philosophy major interested in social issues, presents a common judgment case using representative heuristics.

  • Options: A. Bank teller B. Bank teller & feminist activist.

Counterfactual Thinking

  • Imagining alternative scenarios that did not happen, impacting feelings about real outcomes.

  • Example: Feeling regret or relief regarding exam results reflecting on what could have been.

3. EXPLAINING

Attribution Theory

  • Explains behavior by attributing to:

    • Internal (traits)

    • External (situational factors)

  • We often infer intentions based on behavior; unusual behavior tells more about a person.

Naïve Psychologist Concept

  • People naturally question and seek explanations for behaviors (e.g., smiling or crying).

Correspondent Inference Theory (John & Davis, 1965)

  • Inferring stable, internal traits based on:

    • Freedom of behavior

    • Unusual effects of behavior

    • Low social desirability of actions.

Attribution Theory (Kelly, 1973)

  • Analyzes:

    • Consistency: How consistent is behavior?

    • Distinctiveness: Is behavior specific to this situation?

    • Consensus: Do others behave similarly?

Fundamental Attribution Error

  • Tendency to underestimate situational influences while overestimating dispositional influences in others' behavior.

  • Example: Misinterpretation of behavior at a gas station due to lack of situational context.

Reasons for Attribution Error

  • Actor-observer difference: Attention differs between one’s actions and those of others.

  • Camera perspective bias: Focus affects perceptions of genuineness in behaviors.

  • Self-awareness effect: Increased sensitivity to one’s own traits alters perceptions of others.

  • Cultural differences influence attribution styles.

4. EXPECTATION

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

  • A belief that leads to its own fulfillment through expectancy effects.

  • Example: Teacher's high expectations of a student leading to improved performance.

QUESTIONS?

  • Concludes with a humorous note on coffee and wakefulness.