POLS233-Voter Ignorance

How the Election and Donald Trump's Victory Looks to Opinion Writers

  • Key Concept: The concept of the "forgotten man" refers to individuals who play crucial roles in the economy but feel overlooked by political elites.

    • Definition: Coined by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, the term encompasses industrial workers, struggling farmers, and ordinary citizens without whom a modern economy would falter.

    • Authors in discussion:

    • Ross MacDonald

    • Ari Berman, author of Give Us the Ballot

    • Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, authors of How Democracies Die

    • Matthew D. Lassiter

The System is Broken

  • Public Sentiment: There is a collective belief across various societies that their respective systems are broken and in decline.

    • Statistics: Based on a representative sample by Ipsos, regarding the sentiment of individuals in 31 countries:

    • 56% agree that their society is broken.

    • 57% agree that their country is in decline.

    • Demographics: The study focuses on a representative sample of 23,228 adults aged 16-74 across multiple countries (fielded from February 21 to March 7, 2025).

Majorities Feel their Country's Economy is Rigged

  • General Agreement: A significant percentage agrees with the following statements that imply a need for reform:

    • 31-country average of responses:

    • 68% believe their country's economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful.

    • 66% feel the political and economic elite do not care about hard-working individuals.

    • 70% agree that the mainstream media prioritizes profit over truth.

    • 68% state that traditional parties and politicians neglect people like them.

    • 67% feel that a strong leader is needed to reclaim the country from the elite.

Elites make Decisions based on Self-Interest

  • Public Opinion on Elites: Participants expressed skepticism regarding the interests of elites:

    • Responses to elite decision-making:

    • Only 10% believe elites make decisions in the best interest of the majority.

    • A significant 52% feel elites make choices primarily based on their own interests.

    • 31% believe elites may sincerely think they are acting in the public's interest, although this often isn't the case.

Demand for Political Changes

  • Need for Reform: A majority across several countries believe the political system requires substantial changes.

    • Survey Results: Percentages reflecting opinions on political reform needs:

    • U.S.: 23% for complete reform, 52% for major changes, 24% for minor changes.

    • Canada: 44% complete reform needed, 47% for major changes.

    • Greece through Japan and various other nations showed a consistent desire for political restructuring ranging from major changes to complete overhauls.

Confidence in Political System Changes

  • Public Confidence: Despite the demand for reforms, there is low confidence in the ability to implement such changes effectively.

    • Comparative Analysis:

    • Greece: 68% desire complete reform, yet significant doubts about implementation exist.

    • Varying levels of confidence across nations mirror the general sentiment, highlighting a widespread cynicism regarding political efficacy.

Historical Context of Government Shutdown

  • Institutional Changes:

    • Modern governmental procedures began with the 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act, establishing a deadline for appropriations on October 1.

    • The Antideficiency Act reinforces that agencies cannot spend money without congressional appropriations.

    • If Congress and the President fail to agree on appropriations, agencies must cease non-essential functions. Exceptions apply to life and property protection.

Government Funding Gaps from 1976 to 1990

  • Historical Shutdowns Overview:

    • Funding gaps during this period were mostly short-lived and typically centered around disputes between Congress and the administration.

    • Examples of shutdowns include:

    • 1976: (10 days, President Ford) over defense vs. domestic spending.

    • 1977: Three shutdowns totaling 28 days (President Carter) over abortion funding.

    • 1990: (3 days, George H.W. Bush) concerning budget negotiations around deficits and taxes.

    • Key Insight: Early instances of funding gaps were often resolved rapidly and reflected specific political disputes rather than systemic failures.

Impact of Government Shutdowns

  • Analysis of Shutdowns:

    • Different presidents managed shutdowns in distinct manners:

    • Bill Clinton (1995-96): Substantial approval rating increase post-shutdown, seen as framing Republicans unfavorably.

    • Barack Obama (2013): Emphasis on visible closures leading to public discontent directed at House Republicans.

    • Donald Trump (2018-19): Longest shutdown, ultimately responsible for negative public perception and lack of securing funding for desired projects.

The Nature of Pluralist Democracy

  • Definition of Pluralist Democracy:

    • Politics operates through competition among organized groups; citizens become informed and participate on relevant issues.

    • Critique: E.E. Schattschneider's remark on pluralism reflects a bias toward upper-class interests.

Federal Employment Over Decades

  • Statistical Insight: Federal employment levels now are lower than in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Data illustrate trends in federal and postal service employment since 1939, emphasizing dramatic changes over decades.

Minoritarianism

  • Crucial Points on Minoritarianism:

    • The concept has implications that extend beyond core governmental structures, appearing in local politics and influencing policy capture.

    • Structural Causes:

    • Substantial influence by small groups in local and state politics leads to policy-making that often does not reflect a wider public interest.

    • Mechanisms such as occupational licensing limit competition and vocal minorities dominate school boards, illustrating situations of minoritarianism in action.

Implications of Minoritarianism

  • Conclusions on Democratic Reform:

    • Recognizing minoritarianism demands a comprehensive approach to reform that transcends superficial fixes.

    • Institutional redesign and increased public participation are crucial to mitigate attentive public capture of policy processes.

Fragmentation of Democracy

  • Lee Drutman's Overview:

    • The two-party system contributes to political fragmentation, amplifying divisive politics while creating gridlock.

    • Consequences: The result is heightened polarization stemming from entrenched gerrymandering and non-representative local politics.

    • Reform Proposals: Suggestions for addressing fragmentation include:

    • Proportional representation,

    • Ranked-choice voting,

    • Strengthening multi-party democracy to create incentives for broader coalitions.

Note: These notes capture complex issues within political discourse, summarizing varying perspectives on democracy, governance, and societal perception.