Klopp

The study delves into the significant instances of political violence during the democratization processes in South Africa and Kenya.
South Africa: After Nelson Mandela's release and political reforms, an estimated 15,000 deaths occurred from political violence.
Kenya: Over the past decade leading up to the study, 2,000 deaths and 500,000 displacements were noted due to political violence.
Despite these challenges, both countries transitioned to formal electoral democracies:
- South Africa: Held its first non-racial democratic elections in April 1994.
- Kenya: Achieved a historic transfer of power from KANU to an opposition coalition in December 2002.
The paper explores the interplay between democratization and the observed levels of violence, challenging common assumptions regarding the correlation between ethnic diversity and increased violence during democratization.

Many scholars argue that democratization, especially in ethnically diverse nations, correlates with increased visible human rights abuses and violence.
- Large-N Studies: Indicate a pattern that suggests violence and democratization are positively correlated.
- International Relations Theories: Focus on the role of elite manipulation, which often contributes to violent escalations during political liberalizations (e.g., Yugoslavia, Rwanda).
Unresolved Questions:
- What specific mechanisms drive violence during potential democratic openings?
- How does this violence relate to the ongoing power dynamics?
- What explains fluctuations in violence levels during transitions?

A significant finding suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship between violence and democratization.
- More violence occurs during the transitional phase while moving from authoritarianism to democracy, with lesser violence manifesting when regimes are fully authoritarian or established democracies.
- This relationship is described through institutional arguments and rational actor theories:
- Institutional Argument: Authoritarian regimes can suppress violence, while established democracies can accommodate conflicts through peaceful institutional mechanisms.
- Rational Action Model: In transitional phases, the opportunity for both state repression and collective action increases, leading to major violent eruptions.

The article identifies three major mechanisms through which violence operates in the context of bargaining during democratization:
1. Public Order Policing: Involves the relationship between demonstrators and state authority during political protests.
2. Incumbent Deployment of Special Forces: Strategies employed by incumbents to directly exert violence against political opponents.
3. Manipulation of Local Conflicts: How national actors organize local conflicts to their advantage during party and electoral formations.
The aim is not to encompass all instances of violence but to dissect the specific dynamics tied to transitional politics.

**Institutional Explanations: ** Focus on how authoritarian states suppress violence while democracies channel it into peaceful avenues.
Rational Action Perspective: In transitional states, the risk of violence increases due to the low success probability of peaceful protests, generating incentives for both sides to engage in violence.
Democratization Theory: Offers insights into control and the role of violence in formal negotiations, suggesting that violence can be reduced once incentives to utilize it decrease.

Kenya: One-party regime with authoritarian characteristics, defined primarily by the political dominance of KANU.
South Africa: A racial oligarchy characterized by severely restricted democratic practices under apartheid.
Major differences include the approaches to violence: the Kenyan Opposition primarily condemned violence while South African factions often engaged in it, leading to civil conflict.

Political protests marked vital junctures in the quest for political change, which were often met with state violence aimed at quelling dissent.
Public Violence: Notable incidents in Kenya included a 1997 protest by NCEC, which led to police brutality resulting in deaths.
In South Africa, protests saw excessive force which the apartheid government tried to justify as necessary for maintaining order.
Both governments exploited violence to undermine opposition narratives while the opposition used state violence to buttress their claims against incumbent authorities.

Local disputes, often intensified by political party formations, became conduits for violence as national leaders attempted to ethnicize and politicize these tensions.
- Kenya: Leaders incited violence surrounding ethnic identities to sway electoral outcomes.
- South Africa: Inkatha Freedom Party fueled ethnic identification against ANC, resulting in retaliatory violence across urban landscapes.

Violence for Positioning: Employed to strengthen bargaining positions during negotiations.
Violence for Derailment: Aimed at completely dismantling negotiations to maintain the status quo or incite a violent uprising.
Strategies by Hardliners: Utilized violent tactics to threaten reforms and suppress moderate elements.
Impact of Information Control: Revealing state-backed violence can shift the balance of power towards opposition factions due to public outrage.

The analysis establishes that violence during democratization is a complex interplay of strategic action, often leveraged by different political actors to influence outcomes.
Understanding these mechanisms can provide insights into how political violence can escalate or deescalate rapidly in changing political environments.
Future research is needed to explore these mechanisms in varying contexts, particularly looking into countries like Rwanda, where violence escalated during democratization processes.