Past Paper Questions
Overall Themes:
Do governments win or oppositions lose
Factors determining voting behaviour
Influence of the media
Outcomes of elections as stable and predictable
Past Paper Questions:
Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition.
Evaluate the extent to which social factors determine voting behaviour.
Class:
Historically, class was an extremely strong indicator of voting behaviour
AB and C1 tended to vote Conservative
C2 and DE voted Labour
e.g. 1964, Harold Wilson won 64% of DE voters whilst in 1963 Alec Douglas Home won 78% of AB voters
Class was traditionally a clear differentiation between the two major parties, shaping their policies and voting trends
Also tied in with regionalism, explaining Conservatives historic dominance in south-east and Labour’s northern dominance
BUT
Since 1970s, this trend has been a lot less clear e.g. Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood Speech’, Thatcher’s appeal after the winter of discontent, May and Johnson via Brexit e.g. Mansfield switched after being Labour since 1923
Increasing shift of working-class vote towards Conservatives
Similar shift of middle-class vote going to Labour e.g. Blair and 11% increase in AB and C1 voters
Would be a mistake to claim that the traditional class alignments do not apply at all e.g. Blair still gained most his votes from C2 and DE, but suggests an increase in the significance of salient issues and government competence, rather than social factors
Age
Perhaps the strongest indicator of voting behaviour, strong correlations between age and voting patterns
62% of 18–24-year-olds vote Labour compared to just 25% of 65+ year olds
Conservative appeal based on things like national defence, law and order compared to Labour’s appeal of social justice and the environment
BUT
Even these patterns can change e.g. 1979, 42% of 18-24 year olds voted for Thatcher
Limited impact on election results because of disparity in turnout (71% versus 54%)
Also, might be informed by salient issues and governing competence e.g. in 2017 election, Brexit was the largest division between the party, high vote from older people explained by them also supporting Brexit more
Ethnicity and gender
Historically, female voters voted conservative due to appeal of family values
Reinforced by Thatcher
Now more labour, more significant gender divide e.g. 49% of men vote conservative vs 29% vote labour, 42% women vote conservative compared to 37% for labour
Strong correlation between ethnicity and voting patter e.g. BAME typically vote labour e.g. East Ham (most diverse constituency) voted 83.2% Labour
In the 75 most diverse constituencies, conservatives only won 5
BUT
Contingent on other factors and patterns are not entirely consistent
Polled, 3/10 British Indians say they’d vote Conservative whilst 4/10 said Labour, slim majority, increasingly 2nd generation become more conservative
About issue voting not groups