Past Paper Questions

Overall Themes:

  1. Do governments win or oppositions lose

  2. Factors determining voting behaviour

  3. Influence of the media

  4. Outcomes of elections as stable and predictable

Past Paper Questions:

Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition.
Evaluate the extent to which social factors determine voting behaviour.

Class:  

Historically, class was an extremely strong indicator of voting behaviour  

AB and C1 tended to vote Conservative 

C2 and DE voted Labour  

e.g. 1964, Harold Wilson won 64% of DE voters whilst in 1963 Alec Douglas Home won 78% of AB voters  

Class was traditionally a clear differentiation between the two major parties, shaping their policies and voting trends 

Also tied in with regionalism, explaining Conservatives historic dominance in south-east and Labour’s northern dominance  

BUT  

Since 1970s, this trend has been a lot less clear e.g. Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood Speech’, Thatcher’s appeal after the winter of discontent, May and Johnson via Brexit e.g. Mansfield switched after being Labour since 1923 

Increasing shift of working-class vote towards Conservatives  

Similar shift of middle-class vote going to Labour e.g. Blair and 11% increase in AB and C1 voters 

Would be a mistake to claim that the traditional class alignments do not apply at all e.g. Blair still gained most his votes from C2 and DE, but suggests an increase in the significance of salient issues and government competence, rather than social factors  

 Age 

Perhaps the strongest indicator of voting behaviour, strong correlations between age and voting patterns  

62% of 18–24-year-olds vote Labour compared to just 25% of 65+ year olds  

Conservative appeal based on things like national defence, law and order compared to Labour’s appeal of social justice and the environment 

BUT  

Even these patterns can change e.g. 1979, 42% of 18-24 year olds voted for Thatcher 

Limited impact on election results because of disparity in turnout (71% versus 54%) 

Also, might be informed by salient issues and governing competence e.g. in 2017 election, Brexit was the largest division between the party, high vote from older people explained by them also supporting Brexit more 

Ethnicity and gender 

Historically, female voters voted conservative due to appeal of family values  

Reinforced by Thatcher 

Now more labour, more significant gender divide e.g. 49% of men vote conservative vs 29% vote labour, 42% women vote conservative compared to 37% for labour  

Strong correlation between ethnicity and voting patter e.g. BAME typically vote labour e.g. East Ham (most diverse constituency) voted 83.2% Labour 

In the 75 most diverse constituencies, conservatives only won 5 

BUT  

Contingent on other factors and patterns are not entirely consistent  

Polled, 3/10 British Indians say they’d vote Conservative whilst 4/10 said Labour, slim majority, increasingly 2nd generation become more conservative  

About issue voting not groups 

Evaluate the view that, for the general public, the media is more significant than policy statements and manifestos from political parties.
Evaluate how far class voting remains the most important factor in determining the results of general elections in the UK. You should refer to at least three general elections, one pre-1997 that of 1997 and on post-1997.
Evaluate the extent to which voting behaviour has changed in the UK. You should refer to at least three general elections, one pre-1997 that of 1997 and one post-1997.
Evaluate the view that the newspaper press does NOT have a major influence on voting behaviour.
Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable.
Evaluate the view that a person’s age and the media have now replaced social class and region as clear indicators of voting behaviour