secession-and-the-invisible-hand-of-the-international-system

Introduction

Secession Definition: Formal withdrawal from an established, internationally recognized state by a constituent unit to create a new sovereign state.
Historical Growth: The number of sovereign states tripled from 64 to 195 between 1945 and 2011.
Future Predictions: If this trend continues, the number of countries could rise to 281 by 2050 and 384 by the end of the twenty-first century.
1945 as an Inflection Point: This date marks a change from state expansion to contraction largely due to international changes.

Indicators of State Aggregation:
- Decreasing number of sovereign states.
- Increasing state size until the twentieth century.
Peak of Aggregation: 51 states in 1912; nearly matched by 53 states in 1943.
Pre-World War II Secession: Secession was relatively rare, with notable exceptions in Latin America.
Four General Periods of Change:
1. 1816-1860: Few changes in state numbers; observed both state births and deaths.
2. 1860-1914: Significant reduction in states due to imperialism and conquest.
3. Interwar Years: Brief uptick in state births post-World War I; ultimately subdued by WWII.
4. Post-1945: Dramatic increase in sovereign states and successful peaceful secession.

Factors Contributing to the Shift:
1. Polarity of the International System: Transition from multipolar to bipolar and unipolar systems enabling more informal state control.
2. Norm of Territorial Integrity: Consolidation of this norm diminished conquests, increasing states' safety and reducing the need for large territories.
3. Nuclear Weapons: Shifted focus from territorial defense to deterrence, decreasing the value of obtaining large land areas.
4. Global Economic Changes: Economic integration reduced reliance on large territories for economic success.

Peaceful vs. Violent Secession:
- Post-1945, 14% of secession cases were violent, compared to 73% pre-1945.
- Notable peaceful secessions include the Philippines (1946) and the disintegration of the Soviet Union (1991).
Current Factors Influencing Secession:
- Consent from region's metropole is critical for peaceful outcomes.
- Increasing number of secessionist movements, promoting a 'swarm effect': potential movements feel empowered when others succeed.

Self-Determination vs. Decolonization: The emergence of self-determination as a norm did not guarantee state responsiveness; decolonization was facilitated by changing calculations regarding territory.
Regime Type: Democratic states may have easier paths to permit secession due to norms of legitimacy and participation.
Administrative Units: Secessionist claims aligning with administrative boundaries may yield higher success rates.
Veto Points: Fewer institutional barriers might lead to quicker adaptations to grant secession.

Data Collection: Examination of secessionist movements from 1816-2005 with both qualitative and quantitative analyses.
Event Coding: Criteria include formal declarations of independence, identifiable territory, and significant mobilization efforts.
Statistical Tools: Utilization of logistic regression to analyze outcomes (conflict vs. peaceful) across various scenarios.

Historical Shifts: Proliferation of states post-1945 is influenced by systemic international changes, particularly polarity, the territorial integrity norm, nuclear deterrence, and economic factors.
Future Implications: Potential for state proliferation persists, contingent upon the actions of emerging powers and adherence to current norms.
Global Context: Conditions supporting peaceful secession are more likely under bipolar or unipolar frameworks, while a shift back to multipolarity could complicate this trajectory.