SocSci Section 4
Section IV Introduction
Climate experts are cautious about linking individual weather events with climate because of the many factors that may have caused the event outside of climate change
Evidence continues to accumulate that these events are happening more frequently.
Changes to Earth System include - ice sheet loss, warmer ocean and atmosphere temperatures, sea level rise, and local ecological disruptions
These can be compiled into a single climate crisis
This can be tracked back to the Ind Rev, or even the development of large-scale human societies, but no one in the past could have predicted this level of climate crisis in the past.
Recognizing the Climate Crisis
In the late 50s, scientists began to systematically measure CO2 in the atmosphere and realized that its rise could cause warming
Over next decades, they started learning more, but cultural factors of the late 20th century influenced how humans learned about climate change.
A 1950 scientist didn’t know the right questions to ask about climate change, nor did they have the tools to answer them.
“They’re building the ladder as they climb it”
Scientists specialize their training and research according to fields, and universities or institutions bring groups of scientists together with the resources to study their interests
Scientists discovered the climate crisis through dynamic interaction between communities and major world events such as WWII.
UN charter in 1946 as an international treaty and facilitator of international cooperation to respond and study climate change
Cold War (1946-91) became defining geopolitical feature.
Space Race and scientific competition. 1957 Sputnik went to orbit, and 1969 moon landing by the US
NASA founded in 1958
ESS (Earth System Science) founded during this time and combines geology, biology, and meteorology
Climate change finally began to be fully understood.
Research Programs
WCRP (World Climate Research Program) founded in 1979 and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) founded in 1987 as alternative research institutions to conventional universities and govt jobs
WCRP
ICSU (International Council of Scientific Unions) founded in 1931 was where climate knowledge came from.
Lloyd Berkner (1905-67) suggested that the ICSU observe global geophysical activities over a period in 1952
International GeoPhysical Year (IGY) ran from July 1957 to December 1958 during a high point in the 11 year cycle of sunspot activity.
Many different scientists contributed to this.
Foundational for the launch of NASA and US space program
Charles David Keeling (1928-2005) measured CO2 in atmosphere based in Hawaii on Mauna Loa. Released data known as the Keeling Curve in 1961
Keeling curve very iconic now to distill the cause of the crisis
Bert Bolin was a leader in consolidating researchers on this topic
In 1964, Bolin became the first chair of the ICSU’s new committee on atmospheric sciences.
In 1967, the ICSU and World Meteorological Association (an agency of the UN founded in 1950) jointly founded the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) which was the center of advances in knowledge of the weather and climate in the 70s and 80s.
In 1978 at an International Workshop on Climate Issues hosted in Austria by the ICSU, the WMO, and the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), scientists recognized a need for an org that could do more than GARP.
In 1979, the WCRP replaced GARP as the center of study for climate change.
WCRP led change throughout the 1980s
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)
In the 1980s, the WCRP led study of meteorology and climate change, but Bert Bolin and others thought a new org needed to be made to contextualize climate change and its causes.
IGBP made in 1987
Studied interactions between Earth subsystems and their impacts by global changes
Compliments the WCRP rather than subplanting it
Raising Awareness of Climate Change
Around 1980s, scientists were becoming more convinced in global warming and set out to raise awareness of the problem
Disconnect between scientific discoveries and the general population.
Early Public Warnings
In 1985, the ICSU, WMO, and UNEP organized a conference in Austria about “Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts.”
SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment) issued a report after the conference warning of the consequences of CO2 emissions from humans
To create a way for sustained communication of scientific knowledge to policy makers and the public, the AGGG was formed (advisory group on greenhouse gasses)
In 1988, the WMO held another conference in Canada titled “The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security.”
NASA scientist James E. Hansen said that human effects caused by humans and not nature
By late 1980s, public and govt officials started getting to know of climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
This was founded in 1988 with Paul J. Crutzen and Bert Bolin as an institution to coordinate with scientists who saw the risk of climate change, and politicians internationally.
IPCC was a separate entity from the WCRP and IGBP and still remains as the most authoritative source of information about the science of climate change.
By 1990, scientists had begun raising awareness of global warming in the public, but some powerful people said “yeah no fuck that”, and then made it way more complex
Opposition to Climate Change
Politicians say climate change isn’t real, and skepticism still exists.
In 2010, Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway published Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming which shows why so many Americans don’t believe in climate science
Due to influence and advocation of businesses, industries, or politics, the truth is often obscured and information is disconnected
Nierenberg and the Marshall Institute
In 1984, William Nierenberg retired as the Director of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography.
He then joined the board of directors of George C. Marshall Institute in DC
Unlike the SIO, the Marshall institute existed with a political agenda to defend Cold War policies
SDI was defended which was made under Reagan despite criticism
Marshall Institute continued to attack scientists even after fall of Berlin Wall in 1989
Turned attention to attacking climate science
Under H.W. Bush, the Marshall Institute presented an unpublished paper that had no support saying that solar variance was causing global warming, and not greenhouse gasses.
IPCC disclaimed this paper the year after.
Although the IPCC should have won, the Bush administration basically made it a draw.
Marshall Institute manipulated news coverage, and in the 1990s, this dispute confused the public, causing politicians to retreat from talking about politics.
More reports came out in the 1990s disproved the Marshall Institute further
US Opposition to the Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol was made in 1997 in which nations agreed to cut down emissions
In a vote of 95-0, the US said no to this, saying that poorer countries had to commit before the US would, and that this policy would hurt the US policy.
Bill Clinton decided to sign it in 1998, but Senate didn’t ratify, making it non-binding
Presidential Candidate Al Gore pledged to be more proactive about combating climate change, and almost won, but lost due to a legal battle over vote counts in Florida
Guess who won in the end? BIG OIL AHAHAHHAHAHAHA
Business and Industry
Big oil sees moving away from fossil fuels as a threat. Exxon Mobil basically funded people to say that business regulations are bad, and that climate science isn’t real in the 70s and 80s
These doubters continually cast doubt on new developments rather than spreading disinformation statically.
Oil industry is rich. 2022 had the most profitable year for big Western oil
This was due to Russian invasion and the war among other factors. 6 companies earned 219 billion of which 110 billion was given to investors and dividends.
Motivation exists to promote climate skepticism
British Petroleum promoted the idea of the “carbon footprint” which basically shifted the blame to the individual rather than the corporations. This program did absolute jackshit
Actual change requires the government to make substantial changes and seek alternative fuel sources
US Chamber of Commerce is a powerful lobbying group not officially part of the government that just fucks people over in favor of corporations. They’ve historically been against climate change policies, and they voted against climate action 25 out of 39 times in 2022.
Political Parties
Republican party has branded itself as pro-business and anti-government regulation (capitalism) and known as conservatives. More likely to vote against climate action
Democrats more supportive of government regulation, and thus climate action.
It’s not ENTIRELY polarized as some Republicans vote for climate action.
A 2023 poll found that 80% of Democrats support climate action over boosting economic growth, while 72% of republicans voted the opposite.
Democrats more likely to think that where they live has been affected by weather-related events
93% of democrats agree humans are causing global warming while only 55% of republicans do (including the people)
Trump (2017-2021) pulled out of the Paris Agreement in 2017 due to the “economic disadvantage” it put them out.
Putin and Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil) also are against climate action
Bolsonaro oversaw mass deforestation of the Amazon
Democratic Clinton administration in the 90s failed to take actual action, and work is always at risk of being undone by future politicians and political parties.