Notes on the Iran-Iraq War

Iran-Iraq War

Causes of the War

  • Religious Differences:

    • Major divide between Shi’a (Iran) and Sunni (Iraq) Muslims.

  • Ideological Dispute:

    • Pan-Islam (Iran's perspective) vs. Pan-Arabism (Iraq's perspective).

  • Ethnic Differences:

    • Primarily Persian (Iran) vs. Arab (Iraq) populations.

  • Territorial Dispute:

    • Disagreement over the Shatt al-Arab Waterway.

  • Regional Competition:

    • Struggle for dominance within the region.

  • Revolutionary Rhetoric from Iran:

    • Following the Iranian revolution, Iran aimed to spread its ideologies into Iraq.

Iran’s Revolution and Iraq

  • Saddam Hussein's Calculations:

    • At this time, he had just consolidated his control over Iraq.
    • Population:
    • Approximately 17.5 million in Iraq.
    • 52 million in Iran.
    • Iran sought to export its revolutionary ideology to Iraq.

  • Military Discrepancies:

    • Differences in military capabilities and external support influenced calculations.
    • Post-revolutionary chaos in Iran created openings.

War of Opportunity vs. War of Vulnerability (Stein's Perspective)

  • War of Opportunity:

    • Short-term Calculations:
    • Confidence in military superiority.
    • Expectations of minimal resistance.
    • Seizing substantial territorial gains.

  • War of Vulnerability:

    • Long-term Perceptions:
    • Concerns about military disadvantages growing.
    • Internal political vulnerabilities leading to the belief that war could stabilize Hussein’s regime.

Iraq's Decision to Attack

  • Viewed as a short-term opportunity to mitigate a long-term vulnerability, leading to the commencement of the conflict.

Conduct of the War

  • Start Date:
    • Launched on September 22, 1980 by Iraq.
  • Initial Miscalculation by Saddam:
    • Underestimated Iranian resolve; they rallied strongly in defense.
  • War Dynamics:
    • Iranians utilized human wave attacks while Iraq relied on its air superiority and chemical weapons.
  • Tanker War:
    • Involved US and allies’ involvement in Gulf shipping operations; policies like “flagging” ships supported Iraq.
  • Casualties from Attacks:
    • Notable incidents: USS Stark and USS Vincennes attacked amid the complexities of naval combat.

Role of External Actors

  • USSR:
    • Strengthened ties with Iraq after being rebuffed by Iran.
  • France:
    • Supplied weapons to Iraq.
  • Gulf Oil States:
    • Provided billions in loans to Iraq.
  • China:
    • Mixed support for both sides.
  • United States:
    • While officially neutral, aligned more closely with Iraq.
    • Related to the Iran-Contra Scandal.

End of War and Aftermath

  • Resolution:
    • July 1988: Agree to UNSC Resolution 598.
  • Casualties:
    • Estimated up to 1 million killed or wounded during the eight-year stalemate.
  • Consequences:
    • Weakened both countries;
    • Iran exhausted and lost focus on exporting revolution.
    • Iraq’s economy devastated, heavily indebted, and regime weakened, setting the stage for its future invasion of Kuwait.

The Futility of the War

  • Analysis of territorial gains shows minimal long-term success for Iraq despite initial advances.
    • Map Reference:
    • Red line indicates furthest Iraq's gains; Yellow highlights Iranian positions.