Arctic Climate Change and Environmental Impacts

Arctic Fragility and Global Warming

  • The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to global warming due to its sensitivity.

Recent Temperature Changes

  • Global temperature anomalies from 2000-2009 were compared to the 1951-1980 baseline.

  • Global temperatures from 2000-2009 averaged about 0.60.6°C higher than from 1951-1980.

  • The Arctic was about 22°C warmer during the same period, indicating Arctic amplification.

Positive Feedbacks

  • Albedo is critical.

  • Changes in vegetation (darkening due to treeline shifts) and snow/ice cover (lightening due to snowline retreat) significantly impact albedo.

Sea Ice Climatology

  • Arctic and Antarctic sea ice concentration climatology from 1979-2000 was based on passive microwave satellite data.

  • Data shows approximate seasonal maximum and minimum levels.

Worrying Trends in Sea Ice

  • Mean December sea ice extent from 1979-2024 shows a rapid decline per decade, based on satellite records.

  • Record low sea ice extent was recorded in December 2024.

Sea Ice Decline

  • 2011-2012 was a particularly bad season for sea ice.

  • 2024-2025 is projected to be even worse.

Future Projections of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

  • Different emissions scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) project future September Arctic sea ice extent.

  • Historical data and observed trends are also plotted.

  • The scenarios are: RCP 2.6 (11), RCP 4.5 (16), RCP 6.0 (8), RCP 8.5 (14).

Arctic Shipping Routes

  • Various Arctic shipping routes exist or are emerging:

    • North-West Passage (NWP)

    • Northern Sea Route (NSR)

    • Transpolar Sea Route (TSR)

    • Arctic Bridge Route (ABR)

  • Key seas and areas include the Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea, East Siberian Sea, Barents Sea, Beaufort Sea, Greenland Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean.

Jet Stream Disruptions

  • Rossby Waves can become very distorted, leading to cut-off circulations.

  • Cut-off Lows and Blocking Highs (Omega Blocks – Ω) can result.

  • These stagnant weather patterns can cause droughts or floods if they persist in one area.

  • There is controversial evidence suggesting that Arctic sea ice melt may be interfering with the jet stream, causing more extreme weather events.

Arctic Finland: Cold Environments Option

  • Microclimate measurements.

  • Snow science.

  • Vegetation sampling/Arctic ecology.

  • Environmental reconstruction.

  • Interaction between topography, vegetation, wind, and snowpack.

  • Climate change and temperature/snow patterns.

  • Arctic environmental change and ecology.

Summary

  • The cryosphere includes polar and alpine regions.

  • The Arctic and Antarctic are quite different.

  • Snow and ice have a strong control on the environment.

  • Positive feedbacks make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate change.

  • This has potential consequences for the whole planet, including:

    • Heating/cooling (albedo).

    • Vegetation changes.

    • Water supply for plants.

    • Hydrology and river discharge.

    • Sea-level rise.

    • International trade.

    • Storm patterns and extreme weather in mid-latitudes.

    • Potential thermohaline circulation collapse.