Elischer/Lawrence

Editors’ Introduction

Reassessing Africa’s New Post-Coup Landscape

• Between 2020 and 2022, sub-Saharan Africa experienced a notable increase in military coups, with interventions occurring in various countries.

  • Military coups took place in the following countries:

  • Guinea (September 2021)

  • Mali (August 2020 and May 2021)

  • Chad (April 2021)

  • Sudan (April 2019 and October 2021)

  • Burkina Faso (January 2022)

  • Two additional failed coup attempts occurred in:

  • Niger (March 2021)

  • Guinea-Bissau (February 2022)

• The frequency of these coups has raised concerns and media speculation regarding whether coups are experiencing a resurgence in Africa.

• Historical literature indicates that military coups have always existed in Africa, but their recent prevalence has heightened awareness of the threat posed by military forces to civilian rulers.

Military Coups and Democratization

• Scholars have debated the potential of military coups to trigger democratization.

  • For a coup to lead to democratization, it must result in competitive elections and a timely transfer of power to democratically elected leaders.

  • The military juntas need to:

  • Commit to an electoral timetable.

  • Permit multiparty elections.

  • Avoid electoral manipulation.

  • Vacate their positions of power in a timely manner.

• Failure to meet these conditions can lead to the establishment of authoritarian regimes.

Examination of Post-Coup Landscapes

• This editorial focuses on the dynamics following recent coups in Guinea, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Sudan, based on available information.

  • All the military juntas involved have suspended constitutions and dissolved legislative bodies.

  • Transitional charters have been created to regulate power and outline processes for drafting new constitutions.

  • Juntas claim commitment to restoring constitutional governance, although doubts persist.

Key Questions Raised

• What factors triggered the military interventions?

• Are the juntas committed to a transition timeline?

• How do external powers and regional organizations influence the juntas toward democratization?

• Can juntas effectively unify the national armed forces behind their governance strategies?

Analysis of Specific Post-Coup Trajectories

• Guinea:

  • The coup in September 2021 concluded a prolonged constitutional crisis sparked by a failed referendum that allowed President Alpha Condé to seek a third term.

  • The subsequent election, marred by protests and irregularities, led to Condé’s reelection amid widespread unrest.

  • Current junta actions are under scrutiny as no electoral calendar or civilian government has been established.

• Mali:

  • The coup in August 2020 was a response to increasing public discontent with President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta’s governance and severe political crises.

  • The Malian junta conflicts arose over disagreements between civilian leadership and junta members, leading to the military asserting control.

  • Proposed transitional periods have raised fears of prolonged military rule.

• Chad:

  • Following the death of longtime President Idriss Déby, a transitional military council led by his son assumed power, maintaining the status quo without significant pressure for democratic reforms.

• Sudan:

  • The April 2019 coup ousted Omar al-Bashir after months of protests against poor living conditions, but a subsequent power-sharing arrangement faltered, leading to a military-led government.

  • A transitional charter intended to last 39 months is under dispute, with military reluctance to yield authority.

• Burkina Faso:

  • Recent political turmoil due to government failures in addressing a jihadi insurgency led to a coup in January 2022.

  • There exists a lack of clarity regarding the junta’s path forward due to deep internal divisions within the military and civil society.

Regional Implications and Reactions

• The African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have acted by suspending memberships and imposing sanctions in response to the failure of coups to transition to civilian rule.

• In Mali, increased sanctions have sparked public demonstrations against ECOWAS, while the junta may exploit anti-ECOWAS sentiments to strengthen its position.

Conclusion

• The evolving situations in Guinea, Mali, Chad, Sudan, or Burkina Faso, alongside unsuccessful coup attempts in Niger and Guinea-Bissau, emphasize that military juntas maintain a strong desire to govern and often display reluctance to relinquish power to civilian authorities.

• Outcomes hinge primarily on the juntas' decisions rather than external influences, as local power dynamics remain paramount.