Biomedical Research Methods and Academic Career Structure


Foundations and Architecture of Clinical Research

  • Definition and Classification of Research:

    • Research is defined as the systematic search for knowledge or any structured investigation designed to establish novel facts, solve practical or theoretical problems, test original ideas, or develop generalized scientific theories using scientific methodologies.

    • Primary Biomedical Research Classifications:

    • Clinical Research: Patient-oriented research focused on disease mechanisms, therapeutic interventions, clinical trials, or medical training.

    • Basic Research: Fundamental biological investigation conducted outside the clinic (laboratory or animal models) examining cellular, molecular, or physiological mechanisms.

    • Industry Research: Profit-oriented commercial research and development focused on bringing pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, or devices through regulatory development stages.

  • Anatomy of Research: Components of the Study Plan:

    • The study plan represents the formal architectural blueprint of a research project, composed of six core design elements:

    • Research Question(s): Specifies the primary uncertainty the study addresses.

    • Background and Significance: Establishes why the research question is important and explains the clinical/scientific context.

    • Study Design: Defines the structural format and methodological approach of the study.

    • Participants: Details inclusion/exclusion criteria and sampling strategy for selecting subjects.

    • Variables: Defines the predictor, confounding, and outcome variables, along with exact operational measurements.

    • Statistical Issues: Outlines explicit hypotheses, sample size calculations, and analytical approaches.

  • Primary Epidemiologic and Clinical Research Designs:

    • Observational Designs:

    • Cross-Sectional Study: Examines a defined population group at a single point in time to measure exposures and outcomes simultaneously (e.g., interviewing participants regarding past caffeine intake and correlating scores with concurrent cognitive function tests).

    • Cohort Study: Follows a group of subjects over time (typically starting free of the primary outcome) to observe the incidence of outcomes relative to initial exposure levels (e.g., assessing baseline caffeine intake in cognitively normal adults and tracking dementia incidence over subsequent years).

    • Case-Control Study: Selects subjects based on the presence ("cases") or absence ("controls") of an outcome and retrospectively compares past exposure frequencies (e.g., comparing historical caffeine intake between dementia patients and healthy controls).

    • Clinical Trial Design:

    • Randomized Blinded Trial: Assigns subjects randomly to experimental interventions or matched controls (e.g., daily caffeine supplement vs. identical placebo) and tracks them longitudinally under blinded conditions to measure clinical outcomes.

  • Physiology of Research: The Inference Framework:

    • Research operates through a conceptual process connecting the actual findings of a study to universal scientific truths via sequential inferences.

    • Conceptual Steps in Conducting Research:

    • Formulating a Research Question based on existing scientific literature and clinical observations.

    • Designing a Study Plan that operationalizes the research question into measurable components.

    • Executing the Actual Study by recruiting specific participants and recording concrete measurements.

    • Analyzing Study Data to generate raw Study Results.

    • Interpreting Results to establish internal Study Conclusions.

    • Inferring generalized conclusions about the Target Population to update broader Scientific Understanding.

The basic structure of clinical research
  • Validity Domains and Error Threats:

    • External Validity (Generalizability): The degree to which conclusions drawn from a study sample accurately apply to the broader Target Population and generalized Phenomena of Interest in the real world.

    • Design Errors occur when the intended sample or intended variables fail to accurately represent the target population or phenomenon of interest, eroding external validity.

    • Internal Validity: The degree to which the observed findings accurately reflect the true relationships within the specific Study Plan and sample analyzed.

    • Implementation Errors occur when actual study subjects or actual measurements deviate from the intended sample or variables (e.g., subject dropouts, measurement protocol errors), eroding internal validity.

  • Framework for Controlling Errors in Research:

    • Random Error (Chance): Unpredictable variability caused by measurement fluctuations or sampling variations.

    • Mitigation in Design/Implementation: Improve measurement precision (standardization, observer training) and increase total sample size.

    • Systematic Error (Bias): Predictable, directional distortion introduced by faulty study design, uncalibrated equipment, or observer/subject bias.

    • Mitigation in Design/Implementation: Improve measurement accuracy, recalibrate tools, use blinding protocols, refine study design, or alter subject selection methods.

    • Combined Control: Standardized operational manuals, rigorous quality control monitoring, and comprehensive pilot testing.

Translational Research Framework

  • Definition and Domains of Translational Science:

    • Translational research represents the specialized branch of clinical research that bridges foundational basic science breakthroughs with population-level health benefits.

    • Two Major Phases of Translation:

    • T1T_1 Translation (Bench to Clinic): Translates discoveries from basic laboratory research and animal models into clinical research and early human testing (e.g., adapting cellular drug targets into candidate clinical therapies).

    • T2T_2 Translation (Clinic to Population): Translates findings from controlled clinical trials into routine public health practice, community healthcare delivery, and general population guidelines.

Translational research components

Conceiving and Refining the Research Question

  • Sources and Inspirations for Research Questions:

    • Mastering Existing Literature: Conduct thorough, systematic reviews of existing published literature to spot knowledge gaps or unverified findings.

    • Scientific Engagement: Attend national research conferences, engage with international peers, and participate in active academic networks.

    • Clinical Observation and Skepticism: Critically re-examine accepted clinical practices (e.g., questioning diagnostic validity or examining underlying drug mechanisms).

    • Applying New Methods: Use cutting-edge diagnostic techniques or emerging technologies to address long-standing scientific questions (e.g., applying functional imaging to evaluate emotional processing).

    • Interdisciplinary Thinking and Imagination: Draw insights from teaching, cross-disciplinary observations (e.g., examining nicotine receptor pathways in psychiatric populations), or novel physical tools (e.g., modified microfluidic cell sorters).

    • Mentorship Selection: Choose experienced senior researchers as mentors to provide project guidance, laboratory infrastructure, financial resources, professional networks, and career support.

  • The FINE Criteria for Research Feasibility:

    • A well-designed research question and study plan must satisfy the four FINE criteria:

    • Feasible: Must feature an adequate, reachable participant pool, require accessible technical expertise, be affordable in time and financial cost, and fit within fundable parameters.

    • Important: Must hold potential to advance clinical practice, influence public health policy, or substantially advance scientific understanding.

    • Novel: Must provide new findings, confirm/refute controversial literature, extend previous studies, or introduce new methodological paradigms.

    • Ethical: Must satisfy Institutional Review Board (IRB) ethical standards and actively promote health equity.

  • Structuring the Study Outline:

    • Begin with a clear, one-sentence research question defining the core target population and primary predictor/outcome variables.

    • Expand the research question into a structured one-page study outline specifying study significance, methodological design, participant criteria, sample size targets, and measurement protocols.

    • Refine the study plan iteratively with input from mentors, biostatisticians, and domain experts prior to drafting final funding proposals.

Selection and Sampling of Study Participants

  • Definitions of Population Hierarchies:

    • Target Population: The complete theoretical universe of individuals defined by specific clinical or demographic criteria to whom study results are intended to apply (e.g., all U.S. adolescents with asthma).

    • Accessible Population: The subset of the target population defined by geographic, institutional, and temporal parameters available for research sampling (e.g., adolescents with asthma attending local regional clinics over the prior 12 months).

    • Study Sample: The actual subset of individuals selected from the accessible population who enroll and participate in the study.

  • Protocol Steps for Participant Selection:

    • Step 1: Specify Target Population criteria based on clinical and demographic characteristics relevant to the research question.

    • Step 2: Define Accessible Population parameters by identifying geographic and temporal constraints.

    • Step 3: Design the Intended Sample approach by establishing clear inclusion/exclusion criteria and formal sampling protocols.

  • Designing Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria:

    • Inclusion Criteria: Specific clinical, demographic, geographic, and temporal characteristics defining eligible subjects (e.g., in a trial testing low-dose testosterone for menopausal libido: females aged 50–59 experiencing decreased libido, possessing a regular partner, presenting at designated clinics between January 1 and December 31).

    • Exclusion Criteria: Parsimonious rules excluding specific sub-populations to ensure safety and data integrity (e.g., excluding subjects with high loss-to-follow-up likelihood like active substance abuse or imminent relocation; subjects unable to provide accurate data due to severe cognitive impairment; or subjects at high risk of adverse events like prior history of myocardial infarction or stroke).

  • Classification of Sampling Methodologies:

    • Non-Probability Sampling:

    • Convenience Sample: Participants are chosen based on immediate availability or accessible location. Susceptible to selection bias.

    • Consecutive Sample: Enrolls every single patient who meets study criteria over a specified time window. Minimizes temporal selection bias within non-probability samples.

    • Probability Sampling:

    • Simple Random Sample: Every individual in a numbered sampling frame of the accessible population has an equal probability of selection.

    • Systematic Sample: Subjects are chosen according to a fixed periodic interval (e.g., selecting every kthk^{\text{th}} individual from an ordered list).

    • Stratified Random Sample: The population is divided into mutually exclusive subgroups or strata (e.g., age, sex, race/ethnicity), and random samples are drawn independently within each stratum to guarantee subgroup representation.

    • Cluster Sample: Natural aggregates or groups (e.g., entire hospital units, geographic city blocks) are randomly sampled first, followed by selecting individual subjects within chosen clusters.

Examples of simple random, stratified random, and cluster sampling
  • Subject Recruitment and Retention Strategies:

    • Recruitment must secure both an adequate total subject count and a sample representative of the target population.

    • Non-response bias occurs when non-participants systematically differ in key traits from enrolled subjects, threatening study validity.

    • Study design must build in contingency strategies for slow recruitment and implement retention protocols to minimize loss-to-follow-up.

Measurement Planning: Precision, Accuracy, and Validity

  • Measurement Scales and Statistical Hierarchy:

    • Categorical Variables:

    • Dichotomous: Features exactly two mutually exclusive categories (e.g., vital status: alive vs. dead). Evaluated using counts and proportions; low statistical power.

    • Nominal: Features multiple unordered categories (e.g., blood type, gender identity). Evaluated using counts and proportions; low statistical power.

    • Ordinal: Features ordered categories separated by non-quantifiable intervals (e.g., social class, qualitative pain scales). Evaluated using medians; intermediate statistical power.

    • Continuous / Numeric Variables:

    • Continuous: Quantified on an infinite numerical scale with meaningful intervals (e.g., weight, hemoglobin level, blood pressure). Evaluated using means and standard deviations; maximum statistical power.

    • Discrete / Count: Quantified on a finite, whole-integer scale (e.g., number of pregnancies, number of clinical visits). Evaluated similarly to continuous variables when the range of values is broad.

    • Statistical Hierarchy: Continuous variables offer greater analytical power and permit smaller sample size requirements than categorical or dichotomous variables.

  • Clinical Measurement Instruments and Performance Scales:

    • Pain Assessment Scales: Ranging from simple descriptive text scales (no pain to worst possible pain) and 0–10 numeric rating scales to visual facial diagram scales (e.g., Wong-Baker FACES rating scale).

    • Karnofsky Performance Scale: A standard quantitative clinical index rating functional impairment from 100%100\% (normal functioning, no disease evidence) down to 0%0\% (death) in 10%10\% increments.

  • Precision of Measurements (Reliability / Reproducibility):

    • Definition: The degree to which repeated measurements of a stable variable produce consistent results.

    • Sources of Random Error Impairing Precision:

    • Observer Variability: Fluctuations driven by the examiner (e.g., interview technique variations, skill in operating instruments).

    • Instrument Variability: Fluctuations driven by the testing instrument or environment (e.g., temperature changes, reagent batch differences).

    • Participant Variability: Short-term biological variability within subjects (e.g., diurnal strength variations, recent caffeine intake, subject fatigue).

Precision vs Bias Target Diagram
  • Strategies to Reduce Random Error and Increase Precision:

    • Standardize measurement operational procedures using a comprehensive Operations Manual.

    • Train and formally certify observers in standardized measurement techniques.

    • Refine and maintain laboratory instruments and equipment.

    • Automate measurement protocols where feasible to remove human observer variability.

    • Repeat measurements and compute the mathematical mean of repeated trials.

  • Practical Operationalization Protocol (Grip Strength Example):

    • Protocol requirements for dynamometer grip strength testing:

    • Arm positioning: Flexed at 90∘90^\circ at the elbow with forearm parallel to the floor, avoiding body contact.

    • Execution: Administer a standardized verbatim script, perform one practice trial per hand, and execute a slow, sustained squeeze.

    • Recording: Measure both hands, recording force output to the nearest 0.5 kg0.5\text{ kg}.

  • Accuracy of Measurements and Systematic Error (Bias):

    • Definition: The degree to which a measurement accurately reflects the true value ("gold standard").

    • Systematic Error (Bias) introduces directional distortion into study results.

    • Strategies to Reduce Bias:

    • Calibrate measuring instruments against reference standards at scheduled intervals.

    • Use unobtrusive measurements to minimize participant reactivity.

    • Apply Double-Blind protocols using matched placebos to prevent differential bias between study arms.

  • Classifications of Measurement Validity:

    • Content Validity: Evaluates how well a tool measures all clinical domains of a construct (e.g., SF-36 assessing quality of life across social, physical, emotional, and pain domains).

    • Face Validity: Assesses whether a measurement strategy appears logically sound on its face (e.g., assessing frailty via gait speed and grip strength).

    • Construct Validity: Evaluates whether a measurement performs in agreement with theoretical constructs (e.g., social isolation scores differentiating active vs. isolated subjects).

    • Predictive Validity: Evaluates how accurately a measurement predicts future clinical outcomes (e.g., frailty scores predicting long-term care admission rates).

    • Criterion-Related Validity: Correlates a novel diagnostic measure against an established gold-standard test.

  • Stored Biological Specimens and Material Repositories:

    • Biobanking serum, plasma, DNA, urine, tissue, and imaging data enables future nested study designs and retrospective evaluation using emerging analysis platforms.

Hypotheses and Statistical Principles

  • Structure and Characteristics of Research Hypotheses:

    • A hypothesis is a specific, testable prediction derived from the research question that explicitly links predictor and outcome variables within a defined population.

    • Criteria for Good Hypotheses: Must be simple (featuring one predictor and one outcome variable), specific, and formulated a priori (prior to data collection).

    • Classifications:

    • Null Hypothesis (H0H_0): Proposes that no true association or difference exists between predictor and outcome variables in the target population.

    • Alternative Hypothesis (H1H_1): Proposes that a true association or difference exists.

    • Directionality: Alternative hypotheses are typically two-sided (testing for differences in either direction) and should only be one-sided under exceptional, biologically unidirectional circumstances.

  • Legal Jury Analogy and Decision Errors:

    • Statistical hypothesis testing operates identically to a criminal court trial:

    • The Null Hypothesis (H0H_0) corresponds to the presumption of innocence.

    • Rejection of H0H_0 corresponds to a verdict of guilt.

    • Type I Error (False Positive, α\alpha): Incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true (equivalent to convicting an innocent defendant). The maximum threshold for α\alpha is typically set at 0.050.05 (5%5\% significance level).

    • Type II Error (False Negative, β\beta): Failing to reject the null hypothesis when a true association exists (equivalent to acquitting a guilty defendant). β\beta is commonly targeted at 0.200.20 (20%20\% error rate).

    • Statistical Power (1−β1 - \beta): The probability of correctly rejecting H0H_0 when a real association exists. Targeted at 0.800.80 (80%80\% power).

    • PP Value: The calculated probability of observing a result as extreme as (or more extreme than) the sample data purely by chance if H0H_0 were true. H0H_0 is rejected when P<αP < \alpha.

Weight loss achieved by two diets comparing effect size and variability
  • Impact of Effect Size and Variability:

    • Detecting statistical significance depends on both the magnitude of difference between groups (effect size) and sample variability (standard deviation).

    • As illustrated in comparative diet studies, identical mean differences (e.g., a 3 kg3\text{ kg} mean weight loss difference between low-fat and low-carb diets) produce highly significant results (P<0.001P < 0.001) when sample variance is small, but non-significant results (P=0.19P = 0.19) when internal variance and group overlap are large.

Sample Size Estimation and Power Analysis

  • General Recipe for Estimating Sample Size:

    • Step 1: Formulate explicit null (H0H_0) and alternative (H1H_1) hypotheses.

    • Step 2: Identify the primary predictor and outcome variables and select the corresponding statistical test.

    • Step 3: Estimate the expected Effect Size (EE) and population Standard Deviation (SS).

    • Step 4: Calculate the Standardized Effect Size (ES\frac{E}{S}).

    • Step 5: Establish acceptable Type I error (α\alpha) and Type II error (β\beta) thresholds.

    • Step 6: Query standardized statistical reference tables or software formulas to extract the required sample size.

  • Selection Matrix for Statistical Tests:

    • Dichotomous Predictor + Dichotomous Outcome: Chi-Squared Test (e.g., comparing proportions).

    • Continuous Predictor + Continuous Outcome: Correlation Coefficient (rr).

    • Mixed (Continuous Predictor + Dichotomous Outcome, or Dichotomous Predictor + Continuous Outcome): Two-Sample tt Test.

  • Worked Sample Size Calculations across Study Designs:

    • Comparison of Two Means (Two-Sample tt Test):

    • Study scenario: Evaluating if adding ipratropium bromide to albuterol improves FEV1FEV_1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second) in asthmatics.

    • Parameters: Baseline FEV1=2.0 LFEV_1 = 2.0\text{ L}, expected improvement E=0.2 LE = 0.2\text{ L} (10%10\% of 2.0 L2.0\text{ L}), standard deviation S=0.5 LS = 0.5\text{ L}.

    • Standardized Effect Size calculation:       Standardized Effect Size=ES=0.2 L0.5 L=0.40\text{Standardized Effect Size} = \frac{E}{S} = \frac{0.2\text{ L}}{0.5\text{ L}} = 0.40

    • Thresholds: Two-sided α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, β=0.20\beta = 0.20 (Power =0.80= 0.80).

    • Sample Size extracted from Reference Table 6A: 100100 patients per group must complete the trial.

    • Comparison of Two Proportions (Chi-Squared Test):

    • Study scenario: Comparing 2-year back pain risk between Tai Chi practitioners (P0=0.20P_0 = 0.20) and joggers (P1=0.30P_1 = 0.30).

    • Parameters: Absolute Effect Size E=∣0.30−0.20∣=0.10E = |0.30 - 0.20| = 0.10; smaller proportion P=0.20P = 0.20.

    • Thresholds: Two-sided α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, β=0.20\beta = 0.20.

    • Sample Size extracted from Reference Table 6B.1: 313313 participants per group.

    • Correlation Coefficient Test (rr):

    • Study scenario: Correlating urinary cotinine levels with bone density in smokers (r=−0.30r = -0.30).

    • Parameters: Absolute Effect Size ∣r∣=0.30|r| = 0.30; α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, β=0.10\beta = 0.10 (Power =0.90= 0.90).

    • Sample Size extracted from Reference Table 6C: 113113 total subjects.

    • Adjustment for Attrition/Dropouts: To calculate total required enrollment (NenrolledN_{\text{enrolled}}) given expected loss-to-follow-up rate (qq):       Nenrolled=Nrequired1−qN_{\text{enrolled}} = \frac{N_{\text{required}}}{1 - q}       (e.g., for a 20%20\% dropout rate, multiply required size by 11−0.20=1.25\frac{1}{1 - 0.20} = 1.25).

    • Descriptive Study of Continuous Variables:

    • Study scenario: Estimating mean hemoglobin level among urban third-graders with a 95%95\% Confidence Interval (CI) width of ±0.3 g/dL\pm 0.3\text{ g/dL} (W=0.6 g/dLW = 0.6\text{ g/dL}) given standard deviation S=1.0 g/dLS = 1.0\text{ g/dL}.

    • Standardized Interval Width calculation:       WS=0.6 g/dL1.0 g/dL=0.60\frac{W}{S} = \frac{0.6\text{ g/dL}}{1.0\text{ g/dL}} = 0.60

    • Reference Table 6D (95%95\% CI): 4343 subjects.

    • Secondary Scenario: Estimating mean reading grade level (S=1.4 gradesS = 1.4\text{ grades}, CI width ±0.25\pm 0.25 grades   ⟹  W=0.50 grades\implies W = 0.50\text{ grades}):       WS=0.501.4=0.35\frac{W}{S} = \frac{0.50}{1.4} = 0.35

    • Reference Table 6D (95%95\% CI): 126126 subjects.

    • Descriptive Study of Dichotomous Variables:

    • Study scenario: Determining diagnostic test sensitivity for thyroid cancer expected at 80%80\% (0.800.80) with 95%95\% CI width of ±0.05\pm 0.05 (W=0.10W = 0.10).

    • Parameters: Expected Proportion P=1.00−0.80=0.20P = 1.00 - 0.80 = 0.20 (using the smaller proportion <0.50<0.50).

    • Reference Table 6E (95%95\% CI, W=0.10W = 0.10): 246246 subjects.

    • Fixed Sample Size and Detectable Effect Size:

    • Scenario: Meditation fellowship study limited to 100100 total participating mothers (5050 per group) evaluating stress reduction (S=5 pointsS = 5\text{ points}, two-sided α=0.05\alpha = 0.05, β=0.20\beta = 0.20).

    • Reading Table 6A backwards for N=45N = 45 per group yields a Standardized Effect Size of 0.600.60.

    • Minimum Detectable Effect Size calculation:       Detectable Effect Size=0.60×5 points=3.0 points\text{Detectable Effect Size} = 0.60 \times 5\text{ points} = 3.0\text{ points}

    • Outcome: With 5050 subjects per group, the investigator can detect a stress score difference slightly smaller than 3.0 points3.0\text{ points}.

  • Continuous vs. Dichotomous Outcomes Efficiency Comparison:

    • Scenario: Assessing a 6-month nutritional supplement designed to increase quadriceps strength (S=10 N⋅mS = 10\text{ N}\cdot\text{m}) by E=5 N⋅mE = 5\text{ N}\cdot\text{m}.

    • Dichotomous Design (Categorizing subjects as "very weak" vs. normal, expected proportion shift from 10%10\% to 5%5\%):

    • Requires 473473 patients per group (Table 6B.1).

    • Continuous Design (Measuring actual peak torque in N⋅m\text{N}\cdot\text{m}):

    • Standardized effect size calculation:       ES=5 N⋅m10 N⋅m=0.50\frac{E}{S} = \frac{5\text{ N}\cdot\text{m}}{10\text{ N}\cdot\text{m}} = 0.50

    • Requires 6464 patients per group (Table 6A).

    • Key Principle: Continuous variables dramatically improve statistical power, reducing sample size requirements by more than 85%85\%.

  • Impact of Paired Measurements on Sample Size:

    • Scenario: Re-evaluating the asthma FEV1FEV_1 trial using a paired tt-test design comparing individual changes in FEV1FEV_1 before and after therapy.

    • Accounting for baseline between-patient variability reduces outcome standard deviation to S=250 mLS = 250\text{ mL} (0.25 L0.25\text{ L}) for a target effect size E=200 mLE = 200\text{ mL} (0.2 L0.2\text{ L}).

    • Standardized Effect Size calculation:     Standardized Effect Size=200 mL250 mL=0.80\text{Standardized Effect Size} = \frac{200\text{ mL}}{250\text{ mL}} = 0.80

    • Table 6A requirement (α=0.05,β=0.20\alpha = 0.05, \beta = 0.20): 2626 patients per group (down from 100100 per group in unpaired design).

  • Utilizing Multiple Controls per Case in Case-Control Studies:

    • Scenarios with limited available cases (e.g., studying rare conditions like aplastic anemia with insecticide exposure) can compensate for small case numbers by enrolling multiple controls per case.

    • Adjusted Case Requirement Formula (N∗N^*) given original calculated case size NN and control-to-case ratio (cc):     N∗=[c+12c]×NN^* = \left[ \frac{c + 1}{2c} \right] \times N

    • Example: Original requirement N=25N = 25 cases (with 1 control/case). If only 18 cases exist, applying a 3:13:1 control-to-case ratio (c=3c = 3) adjusts the case requirement:     N∗=[3+12(3)]×25=[46]×25=16.67  ⟹  17 casesN^* = \left[ \frac{3 + 1}{2(3)} \right] \times 25 = \left[ \frac{4}{6} \right] \times 25 = 16.67 \implies 17\text{ cases}

    • Limit: Increasing controls endlessly approaches a maximum 50%50\% reduction of original case numbers.

  • Summary Strategies for Minimizing Sample Size and Maximizing Power:

    • Analyze continuous variables rather than dichotomizing continuous data into categories.

    • Apply paired or matched study designs to remove between-subject variance.

    • Utilize high-precision measurement methods (a 20%20\% reduction in variability reduces required patient sample size by 36%36\%).

    • Increase control-to-case ratios in unequal group designs (up to 4:14:1).

    • Select participant populations with higher baseline event rates or shared risk factors.