Exchange rate exposure

Foreign exchange exposure is a measure of the potential change in profitability, net cash flow, and market value because of a change in exchange rates

Two types

Transaction exposure: Effects of change in exchange rate on contractual future cash flows

  • paying in foreign currency

Operating exposure: Effects of change in exchange rate on non-contractual future cash flows

Are you subject to transaction exposure if the payment is immediate?

No, there should be no uncertainty

Forward contract - seller of euro or contract

  • short position

  • forward price

A firm is exposed to exchange risk mainly through the effect of exchange rate changes on its competitive position.

Thus, operating exposure is also called as competitive exposure.

  • Revenue and operating costs

A company with foreign production and domestic sales

Sales in US --> $ revenues stay the same

Costs in foreign currencies à $ costs change with changes in exchange rate

What if $ weakens?

  • Operating exposure

  • Revenues: none

  • Costs: increased

  • Net effects: decrease in cash flows

What is the goal of hedging?

  • Hedging is to eliminate risk

  • Hedging a particular currency exposure means establishing an offsetting currency position on your transaction

Internal (operational) hedging

1. Invoice all transactions in domestic currency

2. Matching

3. Lead and lag payment

External (financial) hedging

1. Forward market hedge

2. Money-market hedge

3. Options market hedge

Account receivable + Option

  • Insured for the minimum amount you will collect

Account payable + Option

  • Insured for the maximum amount you will pay

You will receive £1 million in 3 months

  • Purchase 3 month pound put option (right to sell)

Strike price: $1.76/£

Premium: $0.03/£ (cost of having your protection or insurance)

  • Cost of option (right to buy)

Option premium: $0.03/£

Option Premium:

Premium = £1,000,000 x $0.03/£ = $30,000

Become seller of pound forward contract

Borrow pounds today, at certain maturity pay that pound in the future

X(1+0.10/4) = £1,000,000 X = £1,000,000/(1+0.10/4) = £975,610

Borrow £ today

How much? PV of £1,000,000

X = £1,000,000/(1+0.10/4) = £975,610

Invest $ today

How much?

Covert £ received from the loan into $ at today’s spot rate

£975,610 * $1.77/£ = $1,726,830

Receive $ at the maturity

$1,726,830 * (1+0.08/4) = $1,760,000

Use receivable to pay off loan in 3 months

The interest rates and forward and spot rates are selected so that interest rate parity would hold

The net cash flows from the forward market and money market hedges are equal

Using money market hedge, you can create a “homemade” forward contract

Money market hedge: The spot rate is locked in

Forward market hedge: The forward rate is locked in

You will receive £1 million in 3 months

Purchase 3 month pound put option

Strike price: $1.76/£

Premium: $0.03/£

Cost of option

Option premium: $0.03/£

Buyer, buyer will have the right to sell

Call option

Buy - right to buy

Put options

Buyer - right to sell