Detailed Lecture Notes on Earth’s Future in Cosmic Time

The Future is Here! ORC’s and other wonders of the universe

• Mysterious Odd Radio Circles (ORCs)
• Lord of the Rings
• Recollimators
• RARIGX (Radio Ring Galaxies)
• Pre-SN1987A Objects
• Potoroo
• Dancing Ghosts

Part 1: Can Humans Thrive on Planet Earth on Cosmic Time?

• Cosmic Day: 37.8 million years
• Earth's history is broadly understood, operating under physical laws.
• Volcanism is the biggest threat to life, but habitability could last hundreds of millions of years.
• Earth's cosmic future is bright and potentially rare in the galaxy.

Summary:

• Preserving Earth's future is a critical moral decision without global consensus on:
  • A viable long-term economic system
  • Basic principles for managing Earth and governing ourselves
  • The importance of Earth's long-term health
• Contemplating Earth’s future on cosmic time puts these questions into a proper perspective.

Core Discussion Points:

• Astronomy/Cosmology
• Ethics (moral)
• Politics
• Economy
• Environment

Argument:

• Humans and technology control the planet, but ethics undervalue the future.
• The environmental movement lacks a moral compass rooted in a shared vision for humanity and Earth in cosmic time.
• Humans are currently writing Earth's story and need to consider the ending.

Cosmic Time & Space:

• Journey through Cosmic Time & Space.
• \Ālea Iacta Est (The die is cast) - Julius Caesar
• Early Universe: Simplicity immediately after the Big Bang.
• Density fluctuations at about 1 part in 100,000.
• Time = $10^{-35}$ seconds, Temperature = $10^{27}$.

Present-Day Cosmic Web:

• A view of the present-day cosmic web 300 million light-years across, as modeled by IllustrisTNG.
• Galaxies (gold) have blown off shocked gas (white).

New Discoveries:

• Odd Radio Circles (ORCs)

The Dancing Ghosts:

• MeerKAT observations:
  • Frequency: 1284 MHz
  • Beam size: 7.5" x 7.1"

(Re)Collimation Shocks on Large-Scales:

• Pressure mismatch between the jet and the ambient medium (rarefied).
• Jet narrows and brightens up.
• NGC 2663, Distance = 28.5 Mpc

Rarigx (Radio Ring Galaxies):

• Work in progress.

PeVatrons at High Energies

Diprotodon SNR G278.9+1.3

• Size: $D=200' x 194' = 3°33 x 3°23$
• Distance: Dist=2700pc
• Diameter: $D=157 x 152 pc$

Lollipop SNRs or Magellanic Stream SNR Candidates

LMC ORC! Intergalactic SNR J0624–6948 (Filipovic et al. 2022)

• MeerKAT
• XMM
• CTIO
• Radio
• Optical
• Soft
• Mid

Ancora SNR G288.8-6.3

• Size: $D=107.6' x 98.4'$
• Beam Size: B.S.=30"
• Spectral Index: $\alpha=-0.41$
• Surface Brightness: $\sum=1.4×10^{-22} Wm^{-2}Hz^{-1}sr^{-1}$

LBV? WR 16

• ASKAP EMU
• WISE 12 microns
• superCosmos Halpha

PRE-SN1987A????

• Work in progress.

New (The Youngest) Galactic SNR G329.9-0.5

• Distance ~ 19 kpc?
• Age ~ 100 years
• Diameter ~ 70"

Multimessenger Astronomy

• Photons $\gamma$
• Cosmic Rays P
• Neutrinos $\nu$
• Gravitational Waves GW
• Born: 24th February 1987

Origin of Life

• How life started on Earth

Diversity of Life

• LUCA

Extinction Rate

• Major Extinction Events
• A mass extinction is defined by the loss of at least 75% of species within a short period of time (geologically, this is around 2 million years).

'Big Five' Mass Extinctions in Earth's History

1. End Ordovician (444 Mya)
   • 86% species, 57% genera, 27% families extinct
2. Late Devonian (360 Mya)
   • 75% species, 35% genera, 19% families extinct
3. End Permian (250 Mya)
   • 96% species, 56% genera, 57% families extinct
4. End Triassic (200 Mya)
   • 80% species, 47% genera, 23% families extinct
5. End Cretaceous (65 Mya)
   • 76% species, 40% genera, 17% families extinct

• Extinctions are a natural part of evolution, but background rates are typically less than 5 families extinct per million years
• Future near-term extinction rates are driven by human actions today

Galactic Structure

• 62 Myr Cycle of Extinction

Marine Families

• End-Cambrian Explosion
• End-Late Ordovician
• End-Devonian
• End-Triassic
• End-Permian
• Cretaceous

Diversity is Essential!

• Massive Earth Extinctions like Fertilizers?
• Cataclysm is the engine of evolution!
• Diversity & evolution are based on and depend on errors!
• A trillion evolutionary divisions are needed to achieve one error
• Without errors/diversity, no future?
• in varietate concordia

Two Options for Earth's Prevalence:

• Earths are common
• Rare Earth

Earths Are Common - Drake Equation

• $N = R* \times f<em>p \times n</em>e \times f<em>l \times f</em>i \times f_c \times L$
  • N = The number of technologically advanced civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy
  • $R_*$ = The rate of formation of stars in the galaxy
  • $f_p$ = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems
  • $n_e$ = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life
  • $f_l$ = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears
  • $f_i$ = The fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges
  • $f_c$ = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
  • L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space
• Alternative Drake Equation:
  • $N_{ast}$ = The number of technological species that have formed over the history of the observable universe
  • $N_{hp}$ = The number of habitable planets in a given volume of the universe
  • $f_{bt}$ = The likelihood of a technological species arising on one of these planets

The Rare Earth Equation

• \"all things were ordered in measure, number and weight.\"
• $N = N* \cdot ne \cdot fg \cdot fp \cdot f{pm} \cdot fl \cdot fm \cdot fj \cdot f{me}$<ul> <li>$f_{pm}$- is the fraction of habitable planets with a large moon.</li> <li>If the giant impact theory of the Moon's origin is correct, this fraction is small.</li> <li>$f_j$- is the fraction of planetary systems with large Jovian planets.</li> <li>This fraction could be large.</li> <li>$f_{me} - is the fraction of planets with a sufficiently low number of extinction events.
• Ward & Brownlee (2000) argue that the low number of such events the Earth has experienced since the Cambrian explosion may be unusual, in which case this fraction would be small.

Requirements for an Earth-like Planet

• MWay habitable zone: Enough metals, far from central black hole & SNae.
• Circular Galactic orbit, no mergers: Avoid SNae and high central radiation.
• Mass and luminosity of star (F7 to M): Minimize UV, allow time for life.
• Metal-rich star: Needed for a rocky planet.
• No tidal locking: Minimize strong planetary winds (hence no M dwarfs?).
• Planet migration: Clear out super-earths from inner solar system.
• Stable planetary system, circular orbits: Avoid ejection into outer space.
• Stellar habitable zone: Water must be liquid on planet surface.
• Jupiter-size planet orbiting exterior: Ward off comets and asteroids?
• Right mass and radius of planet: Retain atmosphere.
• Large moon: Stabilize axis tilt, moderate climate and day length.
• Right atmosphere mass: Enough greenhouse warming but transparent.
• Plate tectonics: Bury carbon to permit O_2$. Stable climate (weathering).</li> <li>Continents: Stabilize climate through weathering. Host land-based life.</li> <li>Water: For life. Oceans lubricate plate tectonics (but not a water world).</li> <li>Magnetic field: Shield from damaging stellar flare particles.</li> <li>Right U/Th: Heat Fe core for dynamo but not too much (volcanism).</li> <li>With 17 factors, each with a probability of 0.1, the probability of Earth is$10^{-6}$.</li> </ul> <h4 id="earthscosmicprospects">Earth's Cosmic Prospects</h4> <ul> <li>Solar System orbits: Stable for billions of years.</li> <li>Solar warming: Removes$CO_2 via rock weathering; end of photosynthesis. 600 Myr.
• Nearby supernova explosion: Few hundred Myr.
• Comet/asteroid impact: Need to find and divert down to 100 meters. Feasible.
• Ice ages: An inconvenience but not life-threatening.
• Supervolcanoes: The biggest threat, due to mass extinction. Last one was 250 Myr ago. Needs further study!

Lessons from Cosmology:

• Lesson #1: We got here according to the laws of physics. We are subject to those laws and must live within them. There were no miracles in our past and there will be none in the future.
• Lesson #2: Earth will provide a livable home for at least 100 million years, perhaps longer. We have been given the gift of cosmic time. Will we use it well, or will we squander it? We are the first generation of human beings to know and face this challenge.

Part 2: Three Things We Need to Be Talking About But Aren't

• Homo Homini Lvpvs -Man is wolf to man.

What is this number?

• 1.0000007 = ???
• 1.00000071,000,000 = 2 The amount of annual growth if total growth in 1,000,000 years = x2
• 1. 031,000,000 = 10^{12837}$Today's target 3</ul> <h4 id="capitalism">Capitalism</h4> <ul> <li>Capitalism entails constant motion, growth, and progress.</li> <li>Interest and dividends are Ponzi schemes both premised on future growth.</li> <li>Capitalism needs growth and thus devours the planet.</li> </ul> <h4 id="ponzischeme">Ponzi Scheme</h4> <ul> <li>A fraudulent scheme that involves paying existing investors in a nonexistent enterprise with the funds collected from new investors.</li> <li>Capitalism is <em>not</em> a Ponzi scheme, and instead a scheme of free markets.</li> </ul> <h4 id="productionvstime">Production vs. Time</h4> <ul> <li>Annual copper production has grown at 3.3<li>Plastic waste has grown at 7.3</ul> <h4 id="misconceptions">Misconceptions:</h4> <ul> <li>Misconception 1: Technology will save us.</li> <li>Misconception 2: Dematerialization (economics): the reduction in the quantity of materials required to serve economic functions (doing more with less)</li> <li>Misconception 3: Cosmological lithium problem</li> </ul> <h5 id="dematerializationtheory">Dematerialization Theory:</h5> <ul> <li>None of the 57 sectors studied is within the dematerializing zone. Most are far, far away.</li> <li>$k_i$= technical performance</li> <li>$\epsilon_i$= </ul> <h4 id="theinterconnecteddisasterrisksreport2023">The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023:</h4> <ul> <li>Accelerating extinctions</li> <li>Groundwater depletion</li> <li>Mountain glaciers melting</li> <li>Space debris</li> <li>Unbearable heat</li> <li>Uninsurable future</li> </ul> <h5 id="risktippingpoints">Risk Tipping Points:</h5> <ul> <li>The rate of species extinction is at least 10 to 100 times Earth’s natural rate due to intense human activities. The risk tipping point is when an ecosystem loses key species that are strongly connected which triggers cascading extinctions of dependent species, which can eventually lead to the collapse of an entire ecosystem.</li> <li>Freshwater resources in aquifers supply drinking water to over 2 billion people and are used for agriculture. However, more than half of the world’s major aquifers are being depleted faster than they can be naturally replenished. The risk tipping point is when the water table falls below a level that existing wells can access, putting entire food production systems at risk of failure.</li> <li>Glaciers store large amounts of freshwater and their meltwater is used for drinking, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystems. But glaciers are now melting faster than the ice can be replaced by snow. The risk tipping point is “peak water” – the point when a glacier produces the maximum volume of water run-off due to melting. After this point, freshwater availability will steadily decline.</li> <li>Space debris travels at more than 25,000 km per hour and can cause significant damage if it collides with something, creating even more debris. The risk tipping point is when the Earth’s orbit becomes so crowded with debris that a collision sets off a chain reaction, which would threaten our ability to operate satellites.</li> <li>Human-induced climate change is causing a global rise in temperatures. The tipping point is a “wet-bulb temperature” – a measurement which combines temperature and humidity – above 35°C. High humidity worsens the effects of heat as it impedes the evaporation of sweat, which is needed to maintain a stable core body temperature and avoid organ failure and brain damage.</li> <li>Climate change is increasing the damage as a result of weather-related disasters and the number and size of at-risk areas are expected to expand. The tipping point is reached when insurance becomes unavailable or unaffordable, leaving people without an economic safety net when disasters strike, which opens the door to increasing socioeconomic consequences.</li> </ul> <h5 id="howtoavoidtippingpoints">How to Avoid Tipping Points:</h5> <ul> <li>Two categories of solutions: Avoid solutions, and Adapt solutions</li> <li>Two kinds of actions can be taken: Delay actions work within the existing system and aim to slow down the progression toward risk tipping points or their worst impacts. The ideal, Transform action, involves fundamentally changing a system to be stronger and more sustainable.</li> </ul> <h4 id="earthsystemmodels">Earth System Models:</h4> <ul> <li>Thing One: There is no global discussion taking place on the nature of capitalism and where it is taking us</li> <li>Thing Two: There is no global understanding of Earth as a system for harboring complex intelligent life:The instabilities that are inherent in a complex socio-economic system and how to tame them and Earth’s ultimate carrying capacity</li> <li>Thing Three: There is no collective understanding of the origin of human ethics and its relation to planning Earth’s future.</li> </ul> <h4 id="physicalmodels">Physical Models:</h4> <ul> <li>Physical models are improving but lack humans</li> <li>Missing … People!</li> <li>HANDY (Human and Nature Dynamical Model) with Rich and Poor for thought experiments<ul> <li>Total population$x=xc+xE$(Elite + Commoners). Nature equation Logistic Regeneration - Production by Commoners:$y = Regeneration - y(2-y) - Production - xcy$Wealth is managed by the Elites Inequality factor K~100$W = Production - Commoner consumption - Elite consumption = 6xcy - \delta xc - K\delta xE
  Population equations: death rate & depends on whether there is enough food: famine or healthy
  dc = \alphacxc + \betacx_c$$

The rich Elite accumulates wealth from the work of everyone else (here referred to as the Commoners). When there is a crisis (e.g., famine) the Elite can spend the accumulated wealth to buy food and survive longer.

• Two factors oppose a stable equilibrium:
  • The existence of Wealth, which allows Elites to ignore the plight of Commoners and deny the prospect of impending doom. Wealth creates a time delay!
  • Inequality factor (K) representing Elites/Commoners consumption. If > 10, collapse is inevitable. Commoners starve first, but Elites starve later.
  • Revolution is not included in the model…

Ethics of the Future

• Why do we care about Earth's future or anything?
• Where do human ethical principles come from?
• Good Guys VS Bad Guys

Sources of Human Ethical Principles:

• Religious Belief:
• Moral Absolutism:
• Natural Selection:
• Ethics as a Pragmatic Tool:
• Feelings Drive Compliance:
• Feelings are the carrot and stick that compel compliance. When I do good, I feel good. When I do bad, I feel bad. That's my religion.

How We Value the Future:

• There is (probably) more future than past. Since the future is big, there could be far more people in the future than in the present….If you want to help people…, your key concern [should be] to ensure that the future goes well for all generations to come.

Exponential Discount Rate:

• Interest rates determine the Time Value of Money
• At a discount rate of 2%, at age 20 you are valuing your retirement years at only 1/3 the value of your current year.
• At a discount rate of 2%, future generations have essentially zero value, even though there may be a lot of them.

Hyperbolic Discount Rate:

• Steeper in the short term, shallower in the long term but the net extreme devaluation of the future is similar
• Humans have a weak moral organ for the far future because having one was not necessary for our evolutionary success to this time.

Caring About Earth's Future:

• Humans intuitively respect low entropy and its creative possibilities. We feel awe and wonder at the complexity of Earth's biosphere. The goal of creation myths is to explain. The losses that we mourn are increases in entropy. We understand intuitively how improbable Earth is… and therefore how precious.
• Low entropy is actually the ultimate human value.
• Do we need a new religion that worships Earth's spectacular ability to generate low-entropy enclaves where ever more complex (and beautiful) phenomena can grow?

Conclusion:

• Earth system models showing Earth's long-term carrying capacity. If too small, why bother? What are the choke points, and can they be worked?
• Economic systems that do not depend on growth.
• Socio-economic systems that damp instabilities.
• Humanity's moral compass for the future: Teach from birth where human values come from Finding out whether human ethics can grow
  *Can we love Earth enough to save it?

To consider SETI activities from a bioethical standpoint.

• In particular, there is a moral duty to search for other intelligent beings in the Universe.
• Some of them could – and are likely to be – morally enhanced in the sense that they are not only capable of unmistakable moral reasoning but are also capable of consistently acting upon the results of such deliberations.
• Even if the probability of finding such morally superior beings is small,
  it is higher than zero in any case; in fact, our astrobiological knowledge suggests that this probability is significant.
• Hence, there are both deductive and inductive arguments for the proposition that our duty is to search for such morally superior extraterrestrial beings.
• In other words, there is a duty to undertake and support our SETI efforts.