Climate change, science and diplomacy
Climate change basics
Weather vs Climate (short term s long term)
Weather: short term
Short term state of the atmosphere
Description of precipitation and temperature for one day
Climate: long term
Long term state of the atmosphere
Description of precipitation and temperature for a long period of time
Biospheric problems (how they are different)
The greenhouse effect (what is it)
What do we know
It is getting hotter
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and temperature increases
Human influence + the causes of climate change
How do we know
Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
Who are they?
What do they do?
What do they say?
How is climate change different?
Types of environmental problems
Ecosystem problems
Visible as problems in particular ecosystems
Felt in specific areas
Biospheric problems
Climate change and ozone depletion are not scientifically related (they are both biospheric problems)
Global in nature
Impact all individuals, societies, ecosystems
Vast scope + long time horizon
Require scientific expertise to study
Seem remote from our experiences
Require unprecedented level of cooperation (between countries)
The Greenhouse Effect
Some sunlight that hits the earth is reflected. Some becomes heat
CO2 and other gases in the atmosphere trap heat
Natural vs Human Driven
Natural: more heat escapes into space
Human: less heat escapes into space
Global warming vs global climate change
What is climate change?
Change in the state of the climate; changes in the men and/or the variability of its properties; persists for a an extended period of time
Causes of climate change
Internal variability in the climate systems; it happens over a very long period of time
Natural external causes; it happens over a long period of time
Example: volcanic smoke stops sunlight from reaching the earth
Human influence through greenhouse gases
It is getting hotter
The year 2023
Hottest year ever to be recorded
Hottest june, july, august, september, october, november, december
Temperature was 1.48 degrees celsius or 2.66 degrees fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels
GHG and hotter temperatures
CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
Before 1979 → 337 ppm
Recent 2022 → 417 ppm
Feb 2023 → 421.62 ppm
Feb 2024 → 425.40 ppm
Carbon dioxide is the main heat trapping gas
Where are GHG emissions coming from?
World:
Energy supply
Industry
Agriculture, forestry, and land use
United States:
Transportation
Electric power
Industry
Carbon dioxide emissions 79%
Human Influence
Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years
Greenhouse gases
How much each human-caused greenhouse gas contributes to total emissions around the globe
Carbon dioxide: 76%
Methane: 16%
Nitrous oxide: 6%
Fluorinated gases: 2%
The global warming potential (GWP) of human-generated greenhouse gases is a measure of how much heat each gas traps in the atmosphere, relative to carbon dioxide
Where are GHG emissions coming from
World:
Energy supply: 34%
Industry: 24%
Agriculture, forestry & land use: 22%
Transport: 15%
Buildings: 5.6%
United States:
Transportation: 28%
Electric power: 25%
Industry: 23%
Commercial & Residential: 13%
Agriculture: 10%
Causes of Climate change
Generating power
Manufacturing goods
Powering buildings
Producing food
Cows; methane
Using transportation
Cutting down forests
Consuming too much
What is the IPCC?
Formed in 1988 by:
World Meteorological Organization
United Nations Environmental Program
Mission:
Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation
The structure of the IPCC
Working group 1
Looks at the science of climate change (CC)
Working group 2
Looks at the impacts and vulnerabilities
Working group 3
Looks at the mitigation of CC
Scientist, not politicians
Not original research, summarize existing
Peer review process
Multiple levels of review
The IPCC Process
Levels of review
1st: Authors review scientific publications and write up a draft for review
2nd: Expert reviewers supply comments which are taken into consideration
3rd: New draft goes to both Governments and experts for further comments
What is in the reports
WG1 Final report
Science of CC → 2,409 pages
WG2 Final report
Impacts → 3,068 pages
WG3 Final report
Mitigation → 1,991 pages
97-99% of climatologists agree on 3 things
CC is happening
Humans have caused it
It will have significant impacts on all people, ecosystems and societies
What will CC mean + what can we do?
Effects/Impacts of CC
Largely negative
2 levels of effects/impacts
Physical impacts
What it means to society
Mitigation - reducing emissions
Reduce GHG emissions = reducing cc
Reduce cc = reducing effects/impacts
Adaptation - increasing resiliency
It means we need more/better preparation
More preparation = lessening the effects/impacts of CC
How can we increase resiliency
Climate change effects
Hotter temperatures
More severe storms
Increasing drought
A warming, rising ocean
Loss of species
Not enough food
More health risks
Poverty and displacement
Three dimensions of CC vulnerability
Exposure
Identifying risks to CC
Example: coastlines eroding
Sensitivity
How individuals, communities and nations are impacted by CC
Example: heat waves and isolation
Mostly elderly
Adaptive Capacity (resiliency)
Ability to accommodate and cope with CC impacts and stresses
Both physical and social conditions
Who are most vulnerable
Social class, race/ethnicity, gender, age, citizenship status, sexual orientation, physical ability, geography, location
Who are most vulnerable
Young (children) and old (elderly)
Poor, minorities, women
Less developed countries
Countries in the global south
Small island nations
Primary Issues/Areas CC will impact
Food security
Crop yields are sensitive to small changes in water and temperature
Negative impacts are expected
Freshwater supplies
A question of too much or too little
Early ice/snow melts, reduced stream flows, heavy or low precipitation
Extreme water events
Will increase dramatically → 2011 worst year cost 380 billion worldwide
Both economic costs and social costs → hurricane Katrina
Human health
Heat stress (due to heat waves), fires and respiratory issues , transmissions of tropical diseases
Reduction in overall health and ability to do work
Land use and human settlements
Rising sea levels and more frequent wildfires
Coastal settlements where ½ of all people live are threatened
US → Boston, New York City, Miami, New Orleans, Los Angeles
Global → Maldives, Tuvalu
Migration and climate refugees
At least 200n million displaced from their homes by 2050
Example: Hurricane Katrina
Security and conflict
A "serious threat to global security"and thus to national security
Regional conflicts as water, food and energy supplies dwindle
What can we do about climate change
Adaptation
The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects or minimizing the destruction/suffering that comes from climate change
Examples:
Building seawalls, elevating infrastructure, or retreating from low-lying coastal areas
Reducing and recycling water use due to drought
Favoring drought-tolerant crops
Using prescribed fires to prevent uncontrollable wildfires
Disaster preparedness and management programs
Alternative livelihood opportunities
Mitigation
Human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases
Different types of mitigation:
Technology focused (techno-fixes):
We can plant new trees (increase new trees)
We can use hybrids and energy efficient cars
We can replace fossil fuels with clean, renewable energy
Upgrade buildings/devices
Produce food using less energy
People focused (changing behavior):
We can use less wood/paper products (save/protect old trees)
We can drive less, walk, carpool, and use public transportation
We can practice using less energy via conservation efforts
Turn off lights/energy/devices
Change diets/eat less beef
Examples:
Replacing fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas with clean renewable energy
Replacing traditional internal-combustion vehicles with electric options
Retrofitting old buildings via energy efficiency
Planting trees and preserving forests so they can absorb and store more CO2
Recalibrating agriculture and livestock industries with changes in consumption patterns
Global response to climate change → Paris Agreement
Reduce emissions by 45% by 2030
Net zero emissions by 2050 (about 80%)
Common Pool Resources/Tragedy of the Commons
Common Pool Resources
Air, water, land, atmosphere
Ozone depletion
Climate change
Open access: can’t exclude anyone from using them
Costs and benefits:
Benefits are individual gain
Costs are a joint/group loss
Pastureland with cows
We each own 1 cow
40 people = 40 cows
Costs and benefits
B: milk, cheese, meat
Individual gain = +1
C: soil depletion, methane
Joint/group loss = -1/40
Everyone would add another cow
+1 benefit vs -1/40 costs
Tragedy of the commons
Overusing resources
Adding pollution
Overcoming Tragedy of the Commons
Set up management systems
Government: formal/good of all
Autocratic or Democratic
Privatization: split it/good of one
Community: informal/good of all
What would we need to do?
Monitoring
Incentives (carrots)
Punishment (sticks)
Exchange information
Build trust/communication
Ozone depletion: The science
Ozone = O3
Low level Ozone
Troposphere O3 = bad
Smog, air pollution, respiratory illness
High level Ozone
Stratosphere O3 = good
Absorb harmful UV rays coming from the sun
In effect
O3 in the upper atmosphere acts as a sunscreen for people and ecosystems
The cause: CFCs
Used in refrigerants and propellants
Refrigerator, air conditioning, aerosol sprays, styrofoam
How
CFCs go into the stratosphere and chloride breaks off → Cl
One Cl atom can eat up up to 100,000 molecules of O3
Impacts
Huma health: increased UV radiations reach the Earth surface that are harmful for human health
Crops growth: UV radiations also effect on the growth of crops
Phytoplankton growth: UV radiations inhibit the reproductive cycle of phytoplankton, single-celled organisms that make up the bottom of the food chain
Increased diseases: increased risk of skin cancer, infectious diseases and eye related problems
Ozone Depletion vs Climate Change
Success story
CFCs main cause
Science was certain
1.8 billion in sales (some political influence)
Industry produces CFCs (little connection to people)
HCFCs: ready, cheap, available substitute technology
Little societal change
A work in progress
GHGs + Deforestation as causes
Science is certain
2.24 trillion in sales (big political influence)
Everyone produces GHGs (major connection to people)
Ready? Cheap? Available?
Societal change will be needed
Who is responsible for GHGs emissions?
Overall emissions
#1 China
#2 U.S.
#3 India
Emissions per person
#1 U.S. + Saudi Arabia
Canada, Australia, S. Korea
Historically
#1 U.S.
#2 China
Russia, Germany, U.K.
Climate change negotiations → Themes
The Ambition Gap (2 levels)
Emissions → gap between emission reduction goals and current action
How much do we reduce emissions and by when?
Finance → gap between money needed for current mitigation and adaptation and current spending
Keep it in the ground
We cannot burn all of the fossil fuels we currently have
We need to keep 82% of coal, 49% of natural gas and 33% of oil in the ground to avoid going over 2°C
Damage/Losses
Mechanism to provide compensation for repairable or permanent loss due to climate-induced disasters and slow onset sea rise
Common but differentiated responsibilities
Different countries have different situations/realities
Different expectations on what and how much they can do
Mitigation and adaptation
Focus was only on mitigation, now it has switched to both
How should we split our money/efforts?
The Paris Agreement
Temperatures:
Keep warming below 2°C
Continue efforts to to limit the rise in temperatures to 1.5°C
Financing:
Rich countries must provide $100 billion from 2020, as a “floor”
Amount to be updated by 2025
Specialization:
Developed countries must continue to take the lead in the reduction of GHGs
Developing nations are encouraged to enhance their efforts and move over time cuts
Emissions goals:
Aim for GHGs emissions to peak asap
From 2050 → rapid reductions to achieve a balance between emissions from human activity and the amount that can be captured by sinks
Burden sharing:
Developed countries must provide financial resources to help developing countries
Other countries are invited to provide support on a voluntary basis
Review mechanism:
A review every five years. First mandatory review is in 2025
Each review will show an improvement compared with the previous period
Climate-related losses:
Vulnerable countries have won recognition of the need for averting, minimizing and addressing losses suffered due to climate change
Globalization and Growth
Globalization: the spread of the flow of financial products, goods, technology, information, and jobs across national borders and cultures
We see it every day in the things we buy, the things we eat, the places we go, the news we get
China is the world’s manufacturing superpower
Growth in everything:
Economy
Population
Technology
Food production
GHGs emissions
Human footprint
Air, water, soil, chemicals pollution, biodiversity loss
Inequality
Between and within countries
Perspective #1 → Neoliberalism
Economic focused
Self-interest/Markets is the way to go
Free market is the most important thing
No restrictions on trade/markets
Trust in markets
Goes against economic nationalism
Protecting your economy from other nations → tariffs, embargos, taxes
This is the best for everyone
Trade ↑, production↑, economic growth ↑, world economy ↑
Who is involved:
World Bank
IMF (International Monetary Fund)
TNCs (Transnational Corporations)
Very influential
Contradictions and criticisms:
Size and power of TNCs (some are bigger than countries)
The rise of civil society
NGOs and INGOs
Perspective #2 → world systems/dependency theory
Historical/Power focused
Historical legacy of colonialism
Relationship between MDCs and LDCs
MDCs control LDCs
From military power to economic power
The system of trade favors MDCs
Goes against Neoliberalism
Trade between countries
Unequal system
Helps MDCs but hurts LDCs
How does it happen?
A= North/Rich/MDCs/Core
Supplies money and technology
B= South/Poor/LDCs/Periphery
Has raw materials and labor
A keeps B underdeveloped
TNCs and IMF factor into this
Not very influential
Makes rich/MDCs look bad
Implies there is no hope for LDCs/poor
Globalization and Social Inequality
Economic inequality
Income vs Wealth
I: how much you earn; salary/income
W: all of your assets; income, savings, stocks, bonds, retirement, car, house, land
Growing inequality
Between and within countries
U.S. example:
CEO vs Worker salary
1970 → 20x greater
2011 → 230x greater
Most unequal income distribution of any developed country
Racial and ethnic inequality
African americans, latinos, native americans
All groups experience:
Lower income and wealth
Higher poverty
Higher unemployment
Environmental injustice
Poor/minorities are more likely to be exposed to health and environmental hazards
Research:
Air pollution
Siting of LULUs
Landfills, chemical plants, incinerators, toxic wastes, disposal sites #1
Race matters more than class
Global inequality
Growing gap
Focus on women
Champagne wealth
Income and wealth disparity
Leads to consumption gap between people and countries
Champagne glass of income inequality
The richest (10%) receive 52%
The middle (40%) receive 40%
The poorest (50%) receive 8%
Sustainability and sustainable development
What is sustainability?
Ecological/Enviro concept
Popular concept
It means something different to everyone
Environmentalists
Economists
The 3 E’s of education for sustainability
Environment
Economy
Equity
Growth vs Development
Growth
Quantitative → to get bigger
Easy to see/measure
Not always a good thing
Development
Qualitative → to get different
Difficult to see/measure
Improvement/Progress
Development is beyond growth
Sustainable development
Key elements
Focus on needs not wants
Focus on the present
Intra-generational equity
Needs of today/help the poor
Focus on the future
Intra-generational equity
Needs of tomorrow/help the environment
Perspective #1 → limits to growth (LG)
Outbreak/Crash view
Pessimistic view of the current path
Created in the 1970s
We are on a collision course with the Earth’s carrying capacity
Too many people
We consume too much and using too many resources
We are putting out too much pollution
Growth will be followed by a crash
Evidence
Led to I=PxAxT model (are these things equal)
LG: focus on the A part
Led to ecological footprint model
Estimate our impact on the Earth
Individuals, nations, world
Stats/Research support this view
Favored by ecologists, ecological economists
Criticisms
Environmental apocalypse?
Has not happened so far
They have been wrong before
No set/fixed/absolute limits
We always push the limits out
Human ingenuity and technology
Perspective #2 → Ecological modernization (EM)
Optimistic view of the current path
We have problems, but this is just a phase
Economic prosperity/growth and environmental protection can go together
Focus on green technologies + efficiency
Cleaner/Leaner economic growth
Growth comes first, then we worry about the environment
Evidence
Environmental Kuznets Curve
Shows how countries move from industrial to service economies
Reduction of some pollution metrics in MDCs (cleaner air/water)
Not as much stats/evidence
Favored by business interests and environmental economists
Criticisms
Has not played out in the real world
Does not account for globalization
Focus is on nations, not global
Environmental damages get shifted from MDCs to LDCs
Focus on efficiency but not total resource consumption
Pizza Example
Scenario:
4 people have ordered 1 pizza
2 slices for each
2 more people show up
3 possible solutions
Tough love?
No pizza for them
Order another pizza?
Ecological modernization solution
We can always order another pizza
We all get more pizza
Share the pizza?
Limits to growth solution
In a world of limited resources we cannot always order more pizza
LG vs EM → Understanding this controversy
Which one is right?
LG: has more/better evidence
EM: evidence is some examples in some MDCs
What would each mean for sustainability?
LG: focus on development
Implies lots of changes
EM: keep focusing on growth
Implies less change
Overall issues
Problems with LG → Prescriptions
What would it mean?
People, societies, countries
Who wants to share/live with less?
Problems with EM → Promises
Can it happen?
When will it happen?
Sustainable consumption → what would it mean?
Treadmill of consumption
Today: consumerist culture
EM can help
Today: better goods/more efficient
EM is not enough
LG can help
Tomorrow: voluntary simplicity
Movement to consume less
Voluntary simplicity
Focus less on giving up things
Focus more on gaining
Gain → time for leisure, fun, friends, hobbies, less stress
Stress vs Contentment
Do we own things or do things own us?
Growth, well-being and happiness
What does research show?
No correlation between economic growth/affluence and well being/happiness above a certain amount
It actually goes down
U.S. adults most happy in 1957
Happiest countries have less inequality between people
Happy planet index
Life expectancy
Life satisfaction
Ecological footprint
Costa Rica was #1
United States was #114
A sustainable society would…
Work to conserve and restore its biological base
Soil, forests, freshwater bodies, etc
Reduce population growth and stabilize it
Phase out the use of fossil fuels and shift to renewable energy sources
Work to become efficient → both economically and environmentally efficient
Products, buildings, materials
Have social forms compatible with this framework
Work-life balance → work less but more jobs
Have cultural beliefs and values that support this framework
Changing from materialistic culture
Stronger human connections
Enhance its adaptive capacity to be resilient
Be ready and adaptable to change/shocks
Have greater cooperation between people, societies, countries for global sustainability
A world of sustainable societies
National/Global balance via treaties
Society, agency and structure
Some points about society
Society is a process and it is forever changing
Change largely comes from within → self-transformation
The motor of change is human agency → people as individuals and in groups
Agency and structure
The power we have
Each of us in an agent of change
By ourselves and in groups
We can all promote change
But…
We act within structures and systems that can either limit, constrain, or facilitate the change we want to make
Structures can be agents of change
Social systems, communities, organizations, cultures, social institutions (corporations, government, etc)
How do we get change?
The interaction of agents and structures
Reciprocal relationship
Agents work within systems
Agents can try to transform
Systems influence agents
Can constrain them, limit them
PRAXIS
This is when change agents and their interactions with established structures results in real transforming change
Sustainability and time horizons
Short term vs Long term
Agents + structure with a short term focus and individual mindset will shift the costs of unsustainability into the future
Agents + structures with a long term focus and society mindset will delay benefits today for the future collective good of all
Sustainability = long term
Paris Agreement and the 2°C dilemma
Above 2°C
Catastrophic impacts predicted
Goal is “well below” 2°C
What does this mean?
Signal to fossil fuel industry
Stranded assets
Oil tankers, natural gas tankers, coal power plants, natural gas plants, pipelines, oil and natural gas rigs/platforms, gas stations tanks, etc
What is an economic system?
An economic system produces and distributes goods and services by using natural, human, and manufactured resources. In a pure free market system, buyers and sellers interact without any government or other interference
Problems with markets
Assumptions:
Interaction of buyers and sellers without any interference is the way to go
All buyers and sellers have perfect information
All goods are the same/of equal value
The costs and benefits of all market transactions are internalized —> between the buyer and the seller
Market failures
Externalities
All costs are not internalized
Public goods
Not all goods are the same
Unequal information
Among buyers and sellers
Unequal market power
Monopolies as an example
Market externalities
Externalities are costs or benefits arising from an economic activity that affect somebody other than the people engaged in the economic activity – they are not fully reflected in the price of the good/economic activity
Ecological vs Environmental Economics
Ecological economics:
Subset of the environment. It holds all we need to survive. The economy must obey the natural laws that govern the biosphere
Radical → need to reduce scale, efficiency of resource use, conservation of resources
Non-market values of social/ecological benefits
Redistribution of wealth/resources → fairness/equity
Strong sustainability
Ecological tax reform
Don’t tax good things → income
Tax bad things → pollution
Fits with limits to growth
Goal: no longer focused on growth, focus on development
Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)
Social, economic and environmental indicators
Ecological economics = focus on GPI
Growth of human well-being
Three types of wealth:
Economic
Environmental
Social
Environmental economics:
We have complete control over the environment and we prioritize economic health in decision making
Reform → fix the existing system
Tries to give an economic valuation of ecosystems good/services
Tries to internalize externalities
Weak sustainability
Fits with ecological modernization
Goal: still growth, but cleaner growth
Gross National Product (GNP): an estimate of the total value of all the goods and services produced by a country in a given period
Growth of production
Economic growth = GNP
Focus on one kind of wealth: economic
GNP/GDP vs GPI
GNP
Only looks at economy
When economy ↑, GNP ↑
GPI
Looks at economy, environment and social indicators
When economy ↑, GPI can ↓ if enviro and social drop
Example:
BP/DeepWater Horizon Oil Spill
Worst environmental disaster in the U.S.
Over 200 million gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico
GNP: this is positive; BP paid over $65 billion for cleanup and lawsuits
GPI: this is negative due to the environmental costs involved
Transforming markets: Green Taxes
Shifting taxes
Tax bad things; like CO2, pollution
Do not tax good things; like income, savings
Things to keep in mind
People do not like taxes
No one wants more taxes - shift them
Needs to be done incrementally over time - at least 10 years
Cannot be done to increase government revenue
Goal is to be revenue neutral
Transforming markets: Green Consumption
Buying green → what we would need
People would need to have more information on the goods they buy
People would need to be willing to spend more for “green goods”
Government would need to support this
Limits on buying green
Green consumption vs none
Consumption is still a problem
Rebound effect
We use energy/money savings for other things
Focus is 100% on people’s behavior
Individuals are problem/solution
Systems play a large role
We still need collective action
Greenwashing
Companies often mislead consumers that they are environmental friendly
Changing the way we eat: organic food sales in the U.S.
From 2005 to 2021
15 billion to 58 billion
Biggest jump in 2020
12% increase during Covid
Still small percentage of sales
About 5% of all food