The war

Vladimir Putin's warning on February 24, 2022, emphasizes Russia's immediate response to any threats against its country and people.
Nuclear weapons have played a central role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with approximately 20 nuclear signals issued by Moscow in the first ten weeks of conflict.
Significant actions included raising the alert level of Russia's nuclear arsenal and firing nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine.

Russia's nuclear strategy has deterred direct Western military intervention, raising concerns about global security and the stability of international nuclear governance.
Compelling actions, such as reckless attacks on civilian nuclear infrastructure, pose threats to the existing global nuclear order.

While the global nuclear order faced strain prior to February 2022, Russia's actions have exacerbated the situation.
The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) attracted interest from disillusioned states and garnered 66 parties; however, it is condemned by nuclear-armed states.
Renewed great-power competition is prompting an increase in missiles and nuclear war-fighting plans, challenging existing treaties and norms concerning nuclear weapons.

The nuclear order comprises various international organizations, treaties, and governance mechanisms, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and extended deterrence guarantees.
These institutions provide mechanisms for verification, enforcement, and continuity of nuclear norms but are now under threat due to Russia's aggressive actions.

Realists argue that states will only work through institutions if it serves their interests, suggesting that Russia's nuclear signals prompt skepticism toward the global nuclear order.
Conversely, advocates of international law stress that rules and norms should constrain state actions, underscoring that states violating commitments undermine global governance legitimacy.
The article suggests a middle ground exists where the nuclear order adapts and continues despite challenges.

Russian aggression raises concerns about nuclear proliferation, with a historical trend of states pursuing nuclear weapons following territorial losses.
Russia's invasion might indicate that disarmed nations could suffer consequences, leading to potential reconsideration of nuclear policies by states like South Korea.
Despite this, Ukraine remains a non-nuclear weapons state under the NPT, with no current indications of a shift towards obtaining nuclear arms.

US-Russian arms control is deteriorating due to geopolitical tensions exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
The New START treaty is the last remaining bilateral arms-control agreement, but strategic dialogue has diminished significantly since the onset of war.
Concerns about missile defense systems are stalling further arms-control negotiations, with positions from both sides polarized.

Public realization of nuclear threats could shift attitudes towards nuclear weapons, with countries like Germany expressing shifts in support for nuclear arms.
The invasion of Ukraine has prompted renewed discussions on national security strategies across Europe, impacting long-held assumptions about nuclear deterrence and disarmament efforts.

The current dynamics do not indicate an imminent collapse of the global nuclear order, despite increased risks of nuclear use and proliferation.
Ongoing support for non-proliferation initiatives indicates resilience, although the situation remains precarious due to Russia's actions.
Future discussions on nuclear governance will likely evolve, pushing for a more open dialogue on the value of nuclear weapons versus disarmament.