Notes_Time Value of Money Regularities
Investment Policy
Understanding the basics of investment policy in the context of cash flow valuation.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Essential tool for determining the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows.
Present Value (PV): Value today of a future cash flow, considering a specific rate of return.
Time Value of Money: Fundamentals
Concept: Money available today is worth more than the same amount in the future due to its potential earning capacity.
Formula:
Future Value (FV) = C₀ × (1 + r)ᵀ
Where:
C₀ = Cash flow today
r = rate of return
T = time period
Calculating Future Value
Example: Tuition Investment
Needed for tuition in 12 years: $50,000.
Investment today: $5,000.
Required Rate of Return:
FV = C₀ × (1 + r)ᵀ
$50,000 = $5,000 × (1 + r)¹²
Solving gives: r ≈ 21.15%.
Retirement Savings Calculation
Goal: $1,000,000 for retirement.
Current savings: $500,000 at 10% interest.
Years until retirement:
FV = PV × (1 + r)ⁿ
ln formula is used to solve for T:
T = ln(FV/PV) / ln(1+r)
Result: approximately 7.27 years.
Rule of 72
Quick method to estimate the number of years required to double an investment.
Formula: Years to double ≈ 72 / Interest Rate.
Example: For an interest rate of 10%, it is approximately 7.2 years.
Present Value Calculations
PV of cash flows can be computed as:
PV = CF₀*(1) + CF₁*(1/(1+r)) + CF₂*(1/(1+r)²) + ...
Example Calculation:
CF₀ = $10, CF₁ = $10, CF₂ = $10
If r = 10%, then PV = $27.36 (approx.).
Valuing Simple Cash Flow Streams
Cash flows that are consistent over time can be valued using the Present Value formula.
Perpetuities and Annuities
Constant Perpetuities
Formula: PV = CF / r
Example: A $1 perpetuity at r = 10% has a PV = $10.
Growing Perpetuities
Formula: PV = CF / (r - g)
Important: The condition r > g must hold.
Example: Dividend growth model for stocks.
Valuing Annuities
An annuity can be viewed as the difference between a perpetuity that starts now and one that starts later.
Formula: PV of Annuity = C × (1 - (1 + r)⁻ᵀ) / r
Example: For a constant cash flow received for T years.
Summary of Key Financial Concepts
Time Value of Money: Fundamental in investment planning and decision-making.
Present Value & Future Value: Tools for evaluating investments and cash flow.
Rules of Thumb: Simplifies financial calculations, such as the Rule of 72 for estimating investment doubling time.
Final Thoughts
Always consider the implications of inflation and interest rates when planning financial investments.
Practical applications of these concepts are critical for personal finance planning, including retirement and education funding.