management of Energy Supply

National Example

China’s Energy Strategy

  • Strategy plans to

    • Reduce energy use per GDP by 20%

    • Ensure a more secure supply of energy

    • Increase sustainability

Demand and changes in demand:

  • Average annual demand growth rate of 5.6%

  • Consumption rose by 45% between 2006-2013

  • 570Mtce used in 1978 rose to 3250Mtce in 2010

  • Forecast growth to 4840-5070Mtce in 2020, and then up to 5580-5870Mtce in 2030

  • Target to reduce carbon emission by 40-45%

  • Issues: worlds top energy consumer, a total of 4.8bn KWh were generated in 2012

Issues in changes in supply

  • Between 2000 and 2010

    • Constant 70% coal

    • Oil reduced: 22.2% to 16.5%

    • Natural gas rose: 2.2% to 4.3%

    • Renewables rose: 6.4% to 8.3%

  • 2017 data:

  • Issues: uranium demand (17 nuclear power stations under construction, with plans for 124), World’s top coal producer (4bn tons in 2012)

Actual production of electricity

  • World leader in:

    • HEP: 15% of total production

    • Wind: 30% global capacity

  • Open 1 ‘clean’ coal-fired power station per month

  • Between 2003-13; accounted for 87% of the world’s coal consumption

  • Greenpeace: 80% CO2 is from burning coal

Oil production and consumption

  • Net imports of 6 million barrels per day

  • Consumption to increase while production remains constant

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

  • Supply of petroleum held by China as emergency fuel for use in emergency situations: major price increases, instability in supply, major disaster

  • Managed by the National Development and Reform Commission

  • Expanded in 2007

  • 200 million barrels in 2014, 900 million in 2019

  • Expected to reach 1.15 billion barrels, that would last 83 days in 2020

  • Main facilities

    • Zhenhai, Zhenjiang Province: 52 million barrels

    • Tianjin: 150 million barrels

  • Location

Renewable energy policy

  • Produce 15% of overall energy from renewable sources by 2020 and 20% by 2030

  • Program goals (for 2005)

    • Reach 13 Mtce of electricity using new and renewable energy (not hydroelectric)

    • Reduce CO2 by 10 Mt and SO2 0.6 Mt

    • Increase solar water heating from 11million m2 to 64million m2

    • Increase production capacity of solar cells to 15MW with total capacity 53MW

    • Increase manufacturing capacity of wind power to 200MW and increase capacity to 1.2 GW

    • Increase geothermal energy production to 20 million m2

    • Increase gas supplies to almost 2 billion m3

Evaluation of strategy success

  • Renewables have increased

    • 2012 capacity (2.1% of consumption)

      • Wind = 61GW

      • Solar = 3.4GW

    • 2017 capacity (5.3% of consumption)

      • Wind = 169GW

      • Solar = 130GW

    • Forecast:

    • Consumption per GDP fell by 49% between 2009 and 2020 – echoing success of 2006-10 plan to reduce by 20%

Located Example

China’s 3 Gorges Dam

Description

  • Built on the Yangtze River, China (near Chongqing)

  • Operational 2012, completed 2009 after 17 years

  • Created 20,000 jobs during construction

  • Ship lift installed in 2015

  • Largest HEP in the world (2.3km x 100m x 115m thick)

  • Dam is 660km long

Reasons for development (changes in demand)

  • Reduce downstream flooding: 3000 dead in 1999 floods, compared to only 300 in 2012

  • Generate HEP to diversify from coal: 70% coal

  • Fuel economic growth: reduce flooding and protect Chongqing (35m is largest metropolitan area in the world), ship locks and lift allow navigation

  • Tame the Yangtze: ambition of leaders such as Emperor Mao

Actual production of electricity (new supply)

  • 34 generators with total capacity of 22,000MW

  • Generates an average 95 ± 20TWh

    • 2020 monsoon rains = 112TWh

  • Generated 100bn KWh in 2011

  • Produces power for 60 million people

Location

SEEP considerations

  • Social

    • Locals relocated; reduced flooding (3000 in 1998 vs. 300 in 2012); secure water supplies for 10m; created 20,000 jobs

    • 1.3m uprooted; 140 towns and 255 cultural sites flooded; houses, jobs, communities lost; less natural silt fertiliser for farms

  • Environmental

    • Reduces China’s dependency on fossil fuels

    • Destroys wildlife by changing ecology (river dolphins, Sturgeon fish); eyesore (visual pollution); contaminants not cleaned from valley floor

  • Economic

    • Protects 10m people from flooding in Chongqing, Wuhan and Shanghai; 10,000 tonne ships can use locks /lifts to navigate (encourages upstream industry)

    • Cost between 25bnand25bnand88bn (official, estimate); cost $100bn to relocate displaced

  • Political

    • Political pride in project

    • Risk of failure (landslides (150 in 5 months), silt build-up)

Evaluation of scheme success

  • Scheme has social, environmental and economic consequences (some positive and negative)

  • Contributes to stagnation of coal consumption (50%)

  • Produced energy equivalent of 50 tonnes of coal

  • Accounts for ¼ China’s electricity capacity

  • HEP produced 15% China’s electricity in 2015, with 3GD being largest example (significantly contributes)

  • HEP meets policy aim to ↑ renewables to 15% 2020

  • Little room for future expansion – more generators?