The Middle East in Transition: Questions for U.S. Policy

World War II and the Strategic Importance of Middle Eastern Oil

• Joint Occupation of Iran (1941): In 1941, British and Soviet troops jointly occupied Iran. The primary objective was to block German forces from entering the region and to prevent the energy resources of the Middle East from falling into the hands of Nazi Germany.

• Destruction Contingency Plans: Technicians in the region made specific plans to destroy the oil wells of the Persian Gulf in the event that Germany successfully invaded.

• Global Conflict Dynamics: World War II significantly altered the Middle East's position in international affairs. Strategists from World War I had correctly identified oil as essential, but World War II confirmed that the decisive weapons of the era—airplanes, tanks, and military trucks—required fuels derived from oil to function.

• Axis Power Objectives: The war aims of leading Axis powers, specifically Germany and Japan, were fundamentally shaped by their quests to secure oil resources.

• United States Industrial Production:

  • The U.S. served as the industrial engine of the Allied victory.

  • By the end of $1942$, U.S. military production surpassed the combined output of Germany and Japan.

  • In $1943$, U.S. factories produced approximately $100,000$ warplanes.

  • In $1940$, the United States produced $63\%$ of the world's oil, whereas the Middle East produced less than $5\%$.

• U.S. Shift in Strategy: Wartime leaders feared that demand would soon outstrip supply. Henry Ickleshe U.S. secretary of the interior, stated in $1943$: "If there should be a World War III it would have to be fought with someone else's petroleum, because the United States wouldn't have it."

U.S. Relations with Saudi Arabia

• Initial Diplomatic Status: Before $1939$, the United States did not have a single diplomat stationed in Saudi Arabia.

• Financial Aid and Cooperation: In $1943$, President Franklin Roosevelt ($1933$-$1945$) began providing aid to the Saudi monarchy, which was facing financial collapse due to the war.

• Oil and Industrial Growth: U.S. involvement increased as domestic gasoline consumption and industrial activity boomed. The $1938$ discovery of a massive oil field by SOCAL (Standard Oil of California) established a cooperative relationship that persists to the present day.

• ARAMCO: In $1944$, SOCAL changed its name to ARAMCO (Arab-American Oil Company).

The Birth of the State of Israel

• Post-Holocaust Context: The creation of Israel in $1948$ complicated U.S. relations in the Persian Gulf. While the Jewish quest for a homeland gained support in the U.S. following the Holocaust, Arab leaders opposed it because the state was formed from lands already inhabited by Arabs.

• Saudi Protest: King Saud Ibn Saud threatened to break his contract with ARAMCO as a protest against U.S. policy.

• Definition of Zionism: Zionism is the movement for establishing the state of Israel. The term "Zion" is a Hebrew word for the land of Israel. The movement originated in Europe due to long-term Jewish persecution.

  • Jewish intellectuals explored East Africa and South America before choosing Palestine, a region of historical significance.

  • Zionist leader Chaim Weizmann stated in $1919$: "One fundamental fact is that we must have Palestine if we are not going to be exterminated."

• Conflicting British Promises in World War I:

  • Balfour Declaration ($1917$): Britain pledged to help establish "a national home" for Jews in Palestine to rally Jewish opinion, particularly in the U.S., behind the Allied effort.

  • Promise to Sharif Hussein: Simultaneously, Britain promised the ruler of Mecca that they would help establish an independent Arab state across all Arab areas of the Ottoman Empire in exchange for a rebellion against the Ottomans.

• Population Shifts: Between $1922$ and $1939$, the Jewish population in Palestine rose from $84,000$ to $445,000$, making up approximately $30\%$ of the total population.

The UN Partition and the 1948 War

• Holocaust Impact: The Nazi extermination of $6,000,000$ Jews led hundreds of thousands of refugees to see immigration to Palestine as their only hope. President Truman ($1945$-$1953$) became personally committed to the Zionist cause.

• The UN Plan ($1947$): Britain announced its departure and turned Palestine over to the United Nations. The UN General Assembly passed a partition plan for separate Jewish and Arab states by two votes, influenced by U.S. lobbying.

  • Zionist Response: Accepted the plan as the best hope for a state.

  • Arab Response: Rejected the plan, fearing minority rule over the Arab majority and regional instability.

• The 1948 Conflict:

  • Violence erupted as British forces prepared to leave in May $1948$.

  • Upon declaration of independence, Israel was recognized by the U.S. and Soviet Union.

  • The day after independence, Egypt, Syria, Transjordan (Jordan), Lebanon, and Iraq invaded Israel.

  • Secretary general of the Arab League, Abd al-Rahman Azzam, stated: "It does not matter how many [Jews] there are. We will sweep them into the sea."

• Outcome of the 1948 War:

  • By the truce in January $1949$, Zionists seized a large portion of land designated for Palestinians.

  • Transjordan absorbed the West Bank.

  • Egypt held the Gaza Strip.

  • More than $750,000$ Palestinians became refugees.

  • Cease-fire lines became de facto borders as Arab nations refused to make peace.

The Cold War in the Middle East

• British Retreat: World War II bankrupted Britain. In $1947$, officials informed the U.S. they could no longer maintain their presence in the Middle East, including control of the Suez Canal (occupied since $1882$).

• The Truman Doctrine ($1947$): President Truman announced a $400,000,000$ foreign aid package to Turkey and Greece. This doctrine pledged U.S. support for governments resisting Soviet communism.

• Strategic Priorities: For U.S. policymakers, the Persian Gulf became the second most important region after Western Europe.

• Oil Self-Sufficiency Change: In $1948$, for the first time, the United States imported more oil than it exported.

• Soviet Interests: The Soviets delayed troop withdrawal from Iran after WWII and made territorial claims in Turkey, insisting on shared control of straits connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

Arab Nationalism and Gamal Abd al-Nasser

• Political Shifts: Middle Eastern countries saw a rise in resentment toward the West. Nationalist military officers overthrew monarchies in Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Libya in the $1950$s and $1960$s.

• Nasser's Leadership: Gamal Abd al-Nasser, a former army colonel, took power in Egypt after a $1952$ coup. He campaigned for Pan-Arabism (unification of Arabs into one state).

  • 1958: Nasser merged Egypt and Syria (disintegrated in $1961$).

  • Geopolitics: He used Soviet weapons and played the U.S. and USSR against each other.

The Special Relationship with Israel

• Kennedy Administration ($1962$): Approved the sale of advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Israel and provided a loan to pay for them. Kennedy stated: "We are interested that Israel should keep up its sensitive, tremendous, historic task."

• Johnson Administration ($1965$): Permitted Israel to buy more than $200$ tanks with generous financing, marking the start of a steady flow of U.S. military equipment.

The Six-Day War (1967)

• Causes: Escalating arms build-ups, nationalism, and Nasser's decision to close the Suez Canal and Red Sea access while ordering UN peacekeepers out of the Sinai.

• The Conflict: Israel launched a surprise attack in June $1967$, destroying Egyptian and Syrian air forces. Israel overran the Sinai, the West Bank (including the Old City of Jerusalem), and the Golan Heights.

• USS Liberty Incident: Israeli warplanes bombed a U.S. communications ship, killing $34$ U.S. sailors. Israel claimed it was a mistake.

• Results: Israel victory resulted in the governance of over $1,000,000$ Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Arab leaders turned even more toward the Soviet Union for military support.

The October War (1973)

• Background: Anwar al-Sadat took power in Egypt ($1970$) wanting to regain the Sinai.

• The Attack: Egypt and Syria launched a surprise offensive on Yom Kippur. While initially successful, Israel recovered and advanced toward Damascus and across the Suez Canal.

• U.S. Involvement: President Nixon ($1969$-$1974$) airlifted $1,000$ tons of military supplies daily to Israel to counter Soviet aid to Egypt and Syria. Nixon put the U.S. military on worldwide alert as tensions with the Soviets rose.

The 1973 Oil Embargo

• The Embargo: Led by Saudi King Faisal Ibn Saud, Arab states banned oil sales to the U.S. to protest military aid to Israel.

• Economic Impact:

  • World oil production fell by $9\%$.

  • Oil prices rose to $17$ per barrel (6 times the previous price).

  • U.S. gas prices jumped $40\%$.

  • U.S. economic output dropped $6\%$, while unemployment doubled and inflation surged.

• Shuttle Diplomacy: Secretary of State Henry Kissinger negotiated end-of-fighting agreements between Israel, Egypt, and Syria, leading King Faisal to call off the embargo in March $1974$.

The Camp David Accords (1978)

• Negotiations: President Jimmy Carter ($1977$-$1981$) invited Sadat and Menachem Begin to Camp David for peace talks that lasted two weeks.

• The Treaty: Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize Israel; Israel withdrew from the Sinai.

• Financial Aid Package:

  • Israel: $3,000,000,000$ in immediate military assistance.

  • Egypt: $1,500,000,000$ in aid.

• Consequences: Egypt was expelled from the Arab League for neglecting Palestinian needs. Sadat was assassinated by militants in $1981$. Geopolitically, Egypt moved into the U.S. camp, while Syria and Iraq moved toward the Soviet camp.