Comprehensive Notes on Global Terrorism and International Politics

Impact of September 11, 2001 on Global Security

• The events of September $11$, $2001$, represent a fundamental shift in history, challenging the 'end of history' thesis proposed by Francis Fukuyama in $1989$. While the fall of the Berlin Wall $12$ years earlier suggested the triumph of capitalist democracy, the destruction of the World Trade Center by $19$ hijackers demonstrated that liberal societies' technological sophistication and openness could be exploited to inflict massive destruction.

• Prior to $2001$, global terrorism was often viewed by policy makers as a second-order concern. Post-$9/11$, it is recognized as a primary threat to international security, particularly with the failure of the 'Arab Spring' and the rise of the Islamic State (IS).

• The contemporary global jihadist threat is characterized as enduring, virulent, and resilient, representing a significant challenge to the existing international order.

Defining Terrorism and Strategic Compellence

• Terrorism is defined as acts of violence or threats thereof that deliberately target non-combatants to advance political goals. It is a specific form of compellence, designed to leverage distress from indiscriminate violence to extort changes in an adversary's conduct.

• The term can apply to state actors (e.g., 'terror bombing' of civilian centers in World War II) and non-state actors (e.g., the Provisional Irish Republican Army/PIRA).

• Distinctive features of terrorism include:

  • Transgression of moral and legal norms regarding non-combatant immunity.

  • Coherent political motivation, distinguishing it from commerce-driven crimes like piracy or mercenarism.

  • Functioning as a 'critique of existing political arrangements' and a form of violent political communication.

• Terrorism is frequently termed the 'weapon of the weak,' utilized by those unable to prevail in conventional warfare. It relies on strategies of provocation, polarization, and exhaustion rather than decisive battles of annihilation.

Distinctions Between Terrorism and Other Forms of Conflict

• Terrorism vs. Guerrilla Warfare:

  • Guerrilla warfare typically involves cultivating a mass base in 'liberated' rural areas and seeking victory through incremental expansion and eventual conventional combat.

  • Terrorists operate primarily in urban environments, utilizing mass media for 'propaganda by the deed' to dramatize state impotence and energize supporters through shocking acts like hijackings or assassinations.

• Transnational Character: Globalization has enabled local groups (e.g., the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam/LTTE) to utilize diaspora financing and global networks, increasing their resilience against state repression.

The Historical Waves of Modern Terrorism

• Anarchist Wave ($1880$--$1914$): Triggered by industrialization, the invention of dynamite, and mass newspapers. Attacks in cafes and parliaments terrified the middle classes and led to the scapegoating of immigrant communities.

• Anti-colonial Wave (mid-$20^{th}$ century): Focused on national self-determination. Notable groups include the National Liberation Front (NLF) in Algeria and Palestinian groups.

  • Palestinian groups utilized international air travel and television for global impact, notably the murder of $11$ Israeli athletes at the $1972$ Munich Olympics by Black September. This led to diplomatic recognition for Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO).

• Leftist Wave ($1960s$ and $1970s$): Groups like the Baader-Meinhof Group and the Italian Red Brigades targeted capitalism and the U.S. presence in Europe. Their primary legacy was the accidental spurring of international counter-terrorism cooperation.

• Religious Wave (late $1970s$ to present): Born from a crisis of legitimacy in the Islamic world (e.g., Egypt under Anwar Sadat and Pakistan under Zia al Huq). It was accelerated by the $1979$ Iranian Revolution and the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan.

The Fourth Wave and the Origins of Global Jihadism

• Global jihadism emerged from the intersection of local crises, superpower involvement in the Muslim world, and politicized Islamic identity.

• Ideology: Leaders like Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri viewed the global Islamic community (ummah) as victims of 'near enemies' (apostate local tyrants) and the 'far enemy' (the West/the U.S.).

• Objectives: Ejection of Western sponsors, destruction of Israel (the 'Zionist entity'), and unification of the ummah under a global caliphate governed by sharia law.

• Strategy: Launching attacks to goad the West into unwinnable wars, precipitating the collapse of client regimes in the Muslim world.

The Post-9/11 International Response and U.S. Policy

• United Nations Actions: Resolution-binding obligations were imposed on member states to prevent material sponsorship of terrorists, deny sanctuary, and prevent the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

• Institutional Growth: Establishment of the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate and the $1540$ Committee.

• U.S. Foreign Policy Shift: The Bush Administration moved toward unilateralism, endorsing pre-emptive strikes and 'regime change' to prevent WMD proliferation. This 'forward strategy of freedom' culminated in the $March\,2003$ invasion of Iraq.

• Impact of the Iraq Invasion: It invigorated the global jihadist movement while straining U.S. alliances with European and Middle Eastern partners (e.g., Saudi Arabia). Conversely, it led to temporary rapprochement with Russia and China due to shared interests in suppressing Islamist extremism.

The Arab Spring and the Jihadist Resurgence

• The assassination of Osama bin Laden in May $2011$ and the rise of popular protests initially suggested the marginalization of jihadism.

• Failure of Reform: Except for Tunisia, the 'Arab Spring' yielded to renewed tyranny (Egypt under al-Sisi) or chaos (Libya, Yemen). In Iraq, the sectarian policies of the al-Maliki government alienated Sunnis.

• The Syrian Civil War: Starting in $2011$, this conflict became a proxy war between Iran and Gulf states, providing a critical opening for jihadists. Bashar al-Assad's regime, backed by Russia, remained tenacious but couldn't crush the various factions.

The Genesis and Distinctiveness of the Islamic State (IS)

• Internal Schisms: A divide exists between globalists (al-Qaeda) and those focused on local consolidation. al-Qaeda sought to strike the 'far enemy' first, while the Islamic State (IS) prioritizes local territorial control.

• Evolution: IS (also ISIS or Daesh) originated from al-Qaeda in Iraq, founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. It broke from al-Qaeda in February $2014$.

• Caliphate Proclamation: In June $2014$, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi declared himself caliph, establishing a capital in Raqqa, Syria. IS sought to destroy the Sykes-Picot agreement and build a 'jihadist utopia' based on a brutal misreading of Islam.

• Structural Innovation: Unlike al-Qaeda, which was a network, IS functioned as a hybrid proto-state, governing territory and declaring 'provinces' (vilayets) from Libya to Afghanistan.

Tactical Innovations and Hybrid Warfare of the Islamic State

• Versatile Tactics: IS combines asymmetric terrorism with conventional maneuver warfare involving mobile light infantry, heavy artillery, and armored personnel carriers (APCs).

• External Operations: Despite military reversals (losing approximately $14\%$ of its territory by late $2015$), IS maintains an external operations wing responsible for attacks in Paris ($November\,13,\,2015$) and Brussels ($March\,22,\,2016$).

• Social Media Mastery: IS uses digital technologies to propagate a 'winner’s narrative' and radicalize disaffected individuals globally, leading to 'lone wolf' attacks like the Sydney Lindt cafe siege ($December\,2014$) and San Bernardino ($December\,2015$).

Global Implications of Terror Networks and Migration

• Foreign Fighters: Since $2011$, approximately $30,000$ foreign fighters have joined the conflict in Syria, dwarfing mobilization figures from previous conflicts in Afghanistan or Bosnia.

• Refugee Crisis: Sectarian cleansing by IS contributed to the largest refugee flows to Europe since the $1940s$, strengthening far-right anti-immigrant sentiment and 'Fortress Europe' mentalities.

• Societal Polarization: Tensions between secularism and religious identity have intensified in Western societies, exemplified by the French 'headscarves affair' and the $2004$ 'veil law' forbidding religious clothing in public schools.

Regional Order and Strategic Retrenchment

• Brittleness of the Post-Ottoman Order: The stability managed by external patrons (British, French, and later the U.S. and Soviets) is disintegrating. European introversion due to the Eurozone crisis and U.S. strategic 'rebalance' to the Asia-Pacific have created a power vacuum.

• Decline of Patrons: Under the Obama Administration, the U.S. shifted toward drone warfare to minimize political risk, reducing its role as a primary security patron.

• State vs. Non-State Power: Digital media has lowered coordination costs for non-state actors, allowing them to challenge incumbent power structures and manipulate group identities effectively.

Changes in the International Legal and Military Landscape

• Military Innovation: Pilot-less drones and precision-guided munitions (PGMs) allow strong states to project force into the African and Asian interior easily, often unilaterally abridging norms of sovereignty and non-intervention.

• State Power Reassertion: States have expanded powers of policing, surveillance, and regulation of religious belief as part of the 'war on terror,' often at the expense of civil liberties.

• American Hegemonic Decline: The diversion of resources to the 'war on terror' has hastened the shift from West to East. An indebted West is now compelled to share global leadership with an autocratic and economically strong China.