The Second Cold War and the Collapse of the Soviet Union Study Guide

Part IV: The Coming of the Second Cold War and the Collapse of the USSR

• Summary of Key Drivers: The invasion of Afghanistan was instrumental in ending the d
  
  tente process and ushering in the Second Cold War.

• Domestic Pressure in the US: President Ronald Reagan was elected in $1981$ following significant domestic pressure on Jimmy Carter. Reagan sought to increase US military strength and subject the Soviet Union to a "systematic challenge."

• Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI): Introduced by Reagan in $1983$, this new defense system increased the pressure on the Soviets, who were already facing significant problems.

• Internal Soviet Weaknesses:     * Economic stagnation.     * Aging leadership without solutions.     * Three leaders passed away between $1982$ and $1985$: Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, and Konstantin Chernenko.

• The Rise of Mikhail Gorbachev: Elected in $1985$ as a young, dynamic leader, he introduced far-reaching domestic and international reforms.

• Collapse: The reform process spiraled out of control, leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union in $1991$.

The Background: Economic Stagnation and Military Spending Under Brezhnev

• The Brezhnev Era ($1964$ onwards): Following the fall of Khrushchev, Brezhnev emerged as the primary leader. A critical long-term consequence of the Cuban Missile Crisis was the Soviet decision to achieve nuclear parity with the US, which was reached in the early $1970\text{s}$.

• The Cost of Parity: The military competition with the US and NATO put astronomical strain on the Soviet economy. In the $1970\text{s}$, Soviet GNP was less than half that of the US.

• The Sino-Soviet Dispute: Boarde

• Signs of Stagnation ($1950\text{s}$-$1980\text{s}$):     * $1950\text{s}$: Annual GNP growth was approximately $10\%$.     * $1960\text{s}$: GNP growth fell to $7\%$.     * $1970\text{s}$: GNP growth fell to $5\%$.     * Early $1980\text{s}$: GNP growth fell further to approx. $3\%$.

• Brezhnev’s Ignorance: The aging leadership failed to realize the command economy required deep reforms. Despite detente, defense spending increased.

• Involvement in the Third World: Military assistance further undermined the economy:     * Arms provided to Syria and Egypt after the $1973$ Yom Kippur War.     * Cuban troops transported to Africa in $1977$.     * Military aid to Angola and Ethiopia; naval bases built in Africa.     * Support for Vietnam ($1978$-$1979$) in conflict with China.     * Troops sent to Afghanistan in $1979$.     * By the early $1980\text{s}$, there were $25,000$ military advisers in Cuba, Syria, and Vietnam.     * Post-Brezhnev support: North Korea ($1984$), Nicaragua, and Libya ($1985$).

US Foreign Policy: Carter’s Duality and the Rise of the New Right

• President Jimmy Carter ($1977$): Initial commitment to detente and arms reduction linked to morality. He initially opposed supporting repressive regimes solely because they were anti-communist.

• Early Successes and Decisions:     * $1978$: Cancelled neutron bomb development.     * $1979$: Signed START II (though it would later be rejected by the US Senate).     * $1977$: Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel; Israel returned Sinai to Egypt, and Egypt became the first Arab state to recognize Israel (Soviets were excluded).     * Relations with China: Deng Xiaoping visited the US in $1979$; full diplomatic relations were established.

• Advisory Conflict:     * Cyrus Vance (Secretary of State): Believed in d
  
  tente and the SALT agreements.     * Zbigniew Brzezinski (National Security Adviser): A native Pole who distrusted Soviets. He rejected the "balance of power" model in favor of US military superiority to force Soviet policy shifts.     * Brzezinski’s "Finlandization" theory: Stated that strategic superiority influences political behavior and can induce countries to act in a fashion described as "Finlandization" (indirect control through military superiority). He believed an expensive arms race would destabilize the failing Soviet economy.

1979: The Turning Point

• The Iranian Revolution: The pro-American Shah was overthrown by Ayatollay Khomeni. In November $1979$, the US embassy in Tehran was attacked; $53$ Americans were held hostage for over a year. Oil prices tripled as a result.

• Caribbean and Central American Unrest: Left-wing revolutionaries seized power in Grenada (March $1979$). Sandinistas seized power in Nicaragua (July $1979$). Reformist military officers took power in El Salvador.

• Soviet Actions: The discovery of Soviet combat troops in Cuba (though they had been there for years) and the invasion of Afghanistan in December $1979$ changed Carter’s stance.

• The Second Cold War: Carter shifted to the Brzezinski line. In December $1979$, Carter stated: "My opinion of the Russians has changed more drastically in the last week than even the previous two and a half years before that."

• Political Interpretations: Historian Fred Halliday argues the New Right in the US was the primary driver of the Second Cold War, whereas most historians cite Soviet actions in Afghanistan as the catalyst.

The US Response and the Carter Doctrine

• Budgetary Increases: Military spending rose from $\$174\, \text{billion}$ to $\$200\, \text{billion}$ in Carter's last budgets. Reagan later increased it by an additional $\$32.6\, \text{billion}$ in $1982$ to reach $\$232.6\, \text{billion}$.

• Specific Sanctions:     * Ratification of SALT II was frozen in January $1980$.     * US grain exports to the USSR were stopped.     * Boycott of the $1980$ Moscow Olympics.

• The Carter Doctrine (January $1980$): Any attempt by an outside force to control the Persian Gulf was deemed an assault on vital US interests to be repelled by any means necessary, including military force. A Rapid Deployment Force was established.

Ronald Reagan and the Systematic Challenge

• Reagan’s Rhetoric: Criticized d
  
  tente as a "one way street" and accused the USSR of lying and cheating.

• Peacetime Build-up: Military spending rose from $\$117\, \text{billion}$ per year in $1981$ to $\$290\, \text{billion}$ by $1988$.

• Technological Obsolescence: The goal was to develop weapons the Soviets could not counter, forcing their economy to collapse.

• Missile Deployment (The Dual Track Decision):     * Soviets had deployed SS-20 intermediate-range weapons in Eastern Europe since $1977$.     * NATO responds by announcing the deployment of Pershing 2 and Cruise missiles from $1983$ unless the SS-20s were dismantled.     * These new Western missiles were faster, mobile, and harder to detect. Soviet General Nikolay Ogarkov stated the US was keeping the world on the "brink of war."

Internal Soviet and Satellite Crises (Early 1980s)

• Poland and Solidarity: In $1980$, the Polish government recognized the independent trade union Solidarity (Gdansk accords). The Kremlin viewed this as legalizing "anti-socialist opposition." Martial law was declared in $1981$ to crush the union, leading to US economic sanctions.

• Leadership Paralysis:     * Brezhnev died in $1982$.     * Yuriy Andropov succeeded him but had severe health issues, dying after two years.     * Konstantin Chernenko followed but was considered "without qualities" and died after one year in March $1985$.

• The Gap in Figures ($1985$):     * USSR spent $14\%$-$15\%$ of GNP on armed forces (some estimates say $30\%$), while the US spent $4\%$-$6\%$.     * Computing Gap: Soviet scientific computers were estimated to be $20$ times slower than American versions.     * Social Indicators: Infant mortality up; birth rate down. Male life expectancy fell from $66$ ($1960\text{s}$) to $60$ ($1986$).     * Global Stretching: The cost of supporting Cuba, Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan was estimated at $\$40\, \text{billion}$ annually.

Reagan’s "Star Wars" and the "Evil Empire"

• Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI): Introduced in $1983$; a space-based shield to destroy missiles. Viewed globally as "science fiction," but the Soviets feared a technological breakthrough that would leave them behind.

• The "Evil Empire" Speech ($1983$): Delivered to the National Association of Evangelical Christians. Reagan labeled the USSR the "focus of evil in the modern world" and urged people to see the struggle as one between right and wrong.

• The 1983 Low Point: In November, NATO began deploying Pershing and Cruise missiles. The USSR pulled out of INF and START talks. This was considered the most dangerous year since the $1962$ Cuban Missile Crisis.

Mikhail Gorbachev: Perestroika and Glasnost

• Background: Age $54$, the first leader born in the Soviet Union (post-Tsarist Russia). University-educated reformer.

• Concepts:     * Perestroika: Reconstruction and modernization of Soviet society.     * Glasnost: Openness; encouraging open discussion of past mistakes and criticism of leaders.

• Two-Fold Plan:     1. Cooperate with the West to end the Cold War and reduce arms costs.     2. Reconstruct the Soviet empire economically and politically to ensure its survival.

• Political Atmosphere Change: Gorbachev famously told political jokes in public, such as the one about a man wanting to shoot the leaders because of long food queues, only to find that the queue to shoot them was even longer.

The Sequence of Gorbachev’s Reforms ($1985\text{-}1991$)

• 1985: Gromyko (Foreign Minister since $1957$) replaced by Shevardnadze. First summit with Reagan in Geneva (established personal relations).

• 1986:     * Chernobyl disaster: revealed systemic weaknesses and convinced Gorbachev major reforms were needed.     * Reykjavik Summit: Gorbachev accepted the "zero-option" (removing SS-20s if the US removed Pershings). He proposed abolishing all nuclear weapons in $10$ years, but negotiations stalled on SDI.

• 1987:     * Law on Cooperatives: Permitted private ownership of businesses for the first time since Lenin.     * Washington Treaty (INF Treaty): First treaty to actually destroy an entire category of land-based missiles (ranges $500\text{-}5500\, \text{km}$). Reduced nuclear arsenal by $5\%$.     * Thatcher's endorsement: "I like him. We can do business with him."

• 1988 (Out of Control):     * Gorbachev announced unilateral military reductions ($500,000$ soldiers).     * Death of the Brezhnev Doctrine: Announced the USSR would no longer interfere in the internal affairs of satellites.

• 1989:     * Last troops left Afghanistan.     * "Sinatra Doctrine": Satellites could do it "their way."     * Solidarity legalized in Poland; non-communist PM elected.     * November: Berlin Wall falls.

• 1990–1991:     * German Unification ($1990$).     * Warsaw Pact dissolved ($1991$).     * Yeltsin elected President of Russia ($June\, 1991$).     * Failed August coup by hardliners.     * Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) founded ($December\, 1991$).     * Gorbachev resigned $25\, December\, 1991$. The USSR formally ceased to exist on $31\, December\, 1991$.

Historiographical Debate: Why did Communism Collapse?

School A: External Pressure (The "Victory" School)

• Military Stagnation: The gap between US and Soviet GNP widened constantly after $1958$. By $1972$, Soviet GNP was only $38\%$ of US GNP.

• ICBM Parity Cost: Soviets closed the missile gap ($1964\text{-}1972$) but at human/economic cost.

• Estimates of Defense Burden: Gaddis notes the defense burden was perhaps three times that of the US by the late $1970\text{s}$. McCauley states the USSR used two-thirds of its scientists and one-third of its economy for military efforts.

• The SDI and Reagan’s Challenge: Accelerated the realization that the system could not compete.

• Oil Prices: Saudi Arabia increased production in $1985$, causing prices to collapse. The USSR lost approximately $\$20\, \text{billion}$ per year in revenue.

• Spiritual/Ideological Influence: Pope John Paul II's effect on Poland; the rise of militant Islam in Central Asia due to the Iranian revolution and Afghan war.

School B: Internal Reasons (The Structural School)

• Inefficiency of Planned Economy: High-level bureaucrats (Nomenklatura) obstructed reforms to protect their power.

• Incentive Gap: Private plots (only $3\%$ of land) produced $40\%$ of meat/dairy, while large-scale collectivization failed.

• The Computer Revolution: The Soviet hierarchical system stifled individual initiative. In the mid-$1980\text{s}$, the US had $30\, \text{million}$ PCs; the USSR had $50,000$.

• Gorbachev’s Mistakes: Critics argue he reformed "too much, too soon." His "shock therapy" lacked market mechanisms (credit, fiscal control).

• Lack of Timing: Reforms coincided with the fall of oil prices and decreased alcohol revenues (due to anti-alcohol campaigns).

• Historian Perspectives:     * George Kennan: Called the idea that Reagan caused the transition "simply childish."     * Richard Pipes: Argues US actions decisively influenced international development within Russia.     * John McCauley: Argues only market economies generate rising prosperity over decades; moncausal answers are unacceptable.     * Crockatt: Argues the decline in the late $1980\text{s}$ was a direct result of Gorbachev's policies acting on existing structural weaknesses.