Innovating to Survive: How Extremists Adapt to Counterterrorism

Abstract

The paper explores the under-studied intersection of innovation and terrorism.
It examines the debate between creativity and innovation and their impact on terrorist groups.
The study reviews the typology of terrorist innovation and the law of unintended consequences.
The presence of terrorist groups in online gaming demonstrates their creativity and innovation due to counterterrorism policies limiting their communication with potential recruits.
Extremists seek new communication channels to attract supporters and recruits to ensure survival.
Security agencies must think creatively to stay ahead of adversaries.
Military scholars emphasize the necessity of innovation for militaries to avoid stagnation and vulnerability.
Innovation in terrorism studies is under-theorized, leading to insufficient attention from policymakers.

Introduction

Terrorist groups are typically small, hierarchical, and led by charismatic leaders who inspire action and develop innovative strategies.
Examples of influential leaders include:
- Wadie Haddad: Critical in developing airline hijacking.
- Carlos Marighela: Revolutionized diplomatic hijacking.
- Shoko Asahara: Central in Aum Shinrikyo's development of nerve gas.
- Abdullah Yusuf Azzam: Promoted transnational Salafi-jihadi activism.
Research on terrorism and innovation has focused on leadership, as leaders control ideology, tactics, and operations.
Examples include Osama bin Laden, Abimael Guzman, Velupillai Prabhakaran, and Abdullah Öcalan.
Bruce Hoffman and Ariel Merari suggest that a lack of innovation in terrorist groups stems from conservatism, particularly in established groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade.

Adaptation to Counterterrorism

The terrorism landscape has changed significantly in the last decade as groups adapt to new counterterrorism policies and tech companies' security measures driven by the need to survive.
Groups are becoming more fluid, operating as networks and franchisors, showing greater willingness to innovate in organization and tactics.
Key assumptions about creativity, innovation, and terrorism:
- Terrorists are primarily rational actors engaging in cost-benefit analysis.
- Groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are undergoing a strategic pause, exploring ways to adapt their methods.
Methodological challenges exist in determining causation and correlation between anti-terrorism policies and changes in terrorist tactics, operations, or strategy.
Terrorist groups draw influence from John Boyd’s Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) Loop.
Understanding the decision-making process within terrorist groups is difficult due to secrecy and limited data access.
Indirect measurement and identification of innovative areas are necessary to explore organizational evolution and survival, aided by digital forensics and counterintelligence.
The case of Ataul Haque and Siful Sujan illustrates how extremists use technical knowledge to avoid detection and advise others.
Franchisees appear more willing to be creative and innovative than established groups, as suggested by Paul Gill et al. on malevolent creativity and Mendelsohn et al. on franchising.
The study aims to encourage discussion on how violent extremists adapt to counterterrorism measures, focusing on innovation in tactics and organization.
J. Bowyer Bell's observation that revolutionary organizations do not focus on strategic planning or organizational analysis remains valid.

Creativity vs Innovation

Historically, terrorist organizations were hierarchical, led by older men who preferred established methods.
Established groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine have not changed their modus operandi significantly.
The emergence of franchisees has led to testing new tools and methods.
The paper reviews a typology of terrorist innovation and the law of unintended consequences, as innovation can have disastrous results.
The third section explores the shift to the online gaming world due to counterterrorist policies limiting communication with potential recruits.
Online gaming provides a largely unregulated space for tactical innovation.
The online gaming landscape poses challenges for law enforcement and security agencies due to technical difficulties in interception.

Distinguishing Creativity from Innovation

Distinguishing creativity from innovation is challenging, as the line between the two is often unclear.
Creativity and innovation are often viewed as a continuum or a tautological exercise.
The science behind creativity and innovation involves cognitive psychology, problem-solving, organizational theory, business administration, education, technology, engineering, philosophy, and terrorism studies.
Humans approach problems by finding new connections or redefining problems to reach a solution.
Creativity often refers to a radical break from existing norms, although eureka moments are rare.
Creativity includes a person, process, product, and environment, as well as novelty and usefulness.
Creativity is influenced by the environment, including culture, history, and expectation.
Cultures emphasizing uniformity may undermine creativity.
Research by Lasse Lindekilde, Francis O’Connor, and Bart Schuurman on radicalization patterns found that specific radicalization patterns are linked to differences in attack planning.
Innovation uses new ideas (creativity) to address problems, turning the idea into something useful for strategy, organization, and tactics.
Creativity and innovation are products of gradual learning and effort, involving observation, orientation, decision, and actions (OODA).
The creative, innovative process begins with the need for change and a way to engage in it, acquiring explicit, tacit, techne, or metis knowledge.

Terrorist Innovation

Innovation by terrorist groups is influenced by anti-terrorism (defensive policies aimed at understanding terrorism causes) and counterterrorism (offensive policies aimed at preventing terrorism).
The anti- and counter-terrorism efforts lead to a substitution effect.
- Introducing metal detectors leads terrorists to find new ways of penetrating airport security.
- Online social media companies introducing measures to prevent violent extremist content from being distributed leads extremists to look for new ways to propagate their messages, including using irony.
The innovative process begins by questioning the satisfaction with existing tactics or tools.
This stage involves idea generation and consideration of alternatives, including free-flowing or filtered brainstorming sessions.
Idea synthesis focuses on quality over quantity.
The next stage is experimentation, trying out tools or ideas.
Adam Dolnik defines innovation as the “use or preparations to use a tactic and/or technology that had not been adopted by any other terrorist organization prior to that moment.”
Dolnik emphasizes incrementalism in innovation.
Martha Crenshaw argues that innovation maintains the element of surprise, allowing for revolutionary innovation and watershed moments.
Crenshaw identifies three types of terrorist innovation: strategic, organizational, and tactical.
- It is difficult to differentiate between these types, which only becomes obvious over time.

Strategic Innovation

Involves the conceptualization of a new strategy and is uncommon.
Strategic innovation is linked to ideology, potentially requiring tactical and organizational innovations.
George Habash and Waddia Haddad’s decision to abandon guerrilla tactics in favor of hostage and aircraft hijacking dramatically changed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This strategy brought attention to the Palestinian cause, creating challenges for Israel and the international community.
Habash emphasized that hijacking operations should avoid harming anyone to bring attention to the Palestinian cause, but they ceased in 1972 because they recognized that it was harming the cause.
Habash stated that the leadership concluded that hijacking “did have an impact” and “made the world aware our people’s suffering.”
With the demise of the Caliphate and al-Baghdadi’s death, the Islamic State is exploring a rural- and desert-base strategy to maintain the insurgency.
Yoram Schweitzer emphasizes the link between innovation types, with tactical innovations developing out of strategic innovation.
The 1972 Lod airport attack, involved three members of the Japanese Red Army cooperating with the PFLP, killing 26 people and injuring 80 others.
The tactical innovation was twofold: the willingness of the PFLP to use Japanese terrorists and the attack took place in the baggage hall, which had no security until 1972.
There have not been similar attacks in arrival terminals since then.

Tactical Innovation

Tactical innovation refers to changes in methods or operations used by a terrorist group.
Violent extremists learn from each other to maximize harm and shock.
Innovation manifests through recognition that something no longer works or the acquisition of new weapons or targets.
Tactical innovation indicates a change in strategic thinking, but it is not necessarily reliant on it.
Attacks on airports highlight tactical innovations.
The 1972 Lod Airport attack led to major security changes.
In 2007, Kafeel Ahmed and Bilal Abdulla attempted to ram a Jeep Cherokee stuffed with gas canisters and Molotov cocktails into the Glasgow airport departure area.
In 2016, there were attacks at Brussels and Atatürk Airports.
The March 2019 Christchurch terrorist attack, which was streamed live on Facebook Live was innovative.
The October 2019 Halle shooter used Twitch, possibly due to Facebook's security measures after Christchurch.
Christchurch was arguably the first successful live-streamed terrorist attack, following a 2015 incident involving Vester Lee Flanagan.
Larossi Abballa streamed his knife attack on Facebook.
Those planning attacks or mass shootings seek publicity, learning from previous incidents, such as the shootings in El Paso, Texas.
Evolution, development, and innovation occur as perpetrators learn from each other.

Organizational Innovation

Organizational innovation refers to changes within the group's structure and institutions.
An effective organization includes a structure that identifies strengths and weaknesses to maximize goal achievement.
Organizational innovation is impacted by effective anti- and counter-terrorism measures such as decapitation.
The 2003 U.S. National Strategy for Combating Terrorism noted that the loss of leadership can cause organizations to collapse.
Terrorist leaders take measures to ensure their security.
Mendelsohn's work on the evolution of groups like al-Qaeda through franchisees is an example of organizational innovation.
Franchisees enable al-Qaeda to continue its campaign against the United States, albeit indirectly.
Innovation, whether strategic, tactical, or organizational, does not come easily to terrorist groups.
Leadership may be concerned that innovation would take the group too far from its ideology.
Innovation may lead to vulnerabilities, especially as state actors have more resources.
An example is the hacking of an Islamic State cell in Syria by Israeli cyberoperators, revealing experimentation with an explosive disguised as a laptop battery.

Consequences of Innovation

Publicity is key for terrorist groups but brings challenges, including the law of unintended consequences.
Strategic, tactical, or organizational innovation can radically change the environment, leading to unplanned consequences.
Increasing reliance on franchisees means less control over their actions, as illustrated by the Surabaya bombing.
The Tamil Tigers' assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 using a female suicide bomber alienated the community and led to the LTTE being branded as a terrorist organization.
Attacking a head of state can be counterproductive.
Success leads to emulation and competition.
Adopters adapt innovations to meet their needs.
The PFLP's success with hijacking led to increased stature and sponsorship but also Israeli determination to end the group.
The Islamic State simplified and repackaged al-Qaeda’s ideas, attracting more foreign fighters but also prompting the formation of the International Coalition against the Islamic State.
Mainstream Salafi-jihadi groups struggle to create spectacular operations due to awareness of the consequences.
Targeting civilians leads to widespread condemnation, as seen with the 2005 Amman bombing.
Counterterrorism measures must be wary of unintended consequences.
Driving entities from mainstream platforms leads to the emergence of uncensored spaces.
A U.S. Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications video aimed at discouraging young Muslims from joining the Islamic State saw increased interest after being featured on John Oliver's show.

Technology and Innovation

Bruce Hoffman noted the competition between terrorist and anti-terrorist actors in technology in the late 1990s, referring to it as “the technological treadmill.”
Continued pressure to innovate is necessary to remain one step ahead.
The Islamic State’s propaganda campaign has transformed to react to a changing environment.
In its early days, the group had a centralized system for content production and dissemination, leading to 40,000 people traveling to the Caliphate.
As the group faced more pressure, it innovated counter-measures to combat initiatives by Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Telegram.
Islamic State innovations ranged from using Arabic in messaging to creating new hashtags and using franchisees, affiliates, and anonymous sharing portals.
The Islamic State developed a “centralized decentralization” system, transferring production and dissemination to other actors.
Through the media mujahidin, the Islamic State focused on individuals with specific skills or predispositions to carry out attacks or recruit.
The Islamic State innovated in the social media, tech, and recruitment sector by using applications like Twitter, messaging boards, secure communications, and video games.
The Islamic State migrated from Twitter and YouTube to encrypted communication platforms like Telegram, Signal, and anonymous sharing portals like Justpaste.it, Sendvid.comm and Dump.to.
When Twitter removed the Islamic State's official media account, al-I’tisam, the group adapted by using variations of its name and creating a new methodology for distribution called “centralized decentralization.”
The Islamic State launched hashtag campaigns, with activists and supporters tweeting the same hashtags to commandeer social media, even adopting #WorldCup2014.
The group used its own Arabic language Twitter application (‘The Dawn of Glad Tidings’) to post tweets with links, hashtags, and images.
One of the more innovative ways the Islamic State has sought to promote its message and to recruit is through video games (gamification $^{61}$ ), with over two billion gamers worldwide and computer games that serve as simulation or training for certain activities ( $^{62}$ ).
Hezbollah released a video game, Special Force, in 2003, in which the player fight against Israel. The game includes real battle fought between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon and the game itself is structured to include a narrative that the designers constructed, aimed at generating a new moral reality as much as the construction of heroes and villains. This impacts the views of the gamer, as do shows as 24 and Homeland shape people’s view on Islam and Muslims ( $^{63}$ ).
Extremists move to the gaming world because of its popularity, especially violent games.
Current game consoles and games encourage, the gamers to join online communities, with games such as Fortnite and Roblox including chat rooms that are meant to facilitate greater interaction between the players. Some game console such as Xbox ensure that games have a “Game Hub”, which allows gamers to discuss, post videos, create clans or group, post requests all of which are aimed to intensify the gaming experience ( $^{66}$ ).
Games such as Counter-Strike, Modern Warfare 2, Medal of Honor: Warfighter, enable players to play a role as the terrorists. In 2006, al-Qaeda took the game Quest for Saddam, in which players killed Iraqi soldiers and aimed to capture Saddam Hussein and issued Quest for Bush. The Islamic State used clips from Grand Theft Auto 5 in some of their recruitment campaigns to show that Islamic State does ‘the things you do in games, in real life on the battlefield’ leading to ISIL to promote its version of Grand Theft Auto, if one used the search phrase Salil al-Sawarim (The Clashing/Clanging of the Swords), a famed chant (nasheed) of the Islamic State, although on a trailer version appeared ( $^{69}$ ).
Even with efforts to destroy the Islamic State's propaganda capacity, the group continues to produce content using new platforms and methods.

Conclusion

The research maps out key themes related to creativity, innovation, and terrorism.
Violent extremists are solid innovators who observe the environment, learn from other groups and states and new operations.
Traditional terrorist groups enforce strict ideology and structure.
The Islamic State has not used chemical or biological weapons against western targets because its leadership does not support it.
Conversely, Aum Shinrikyo exploited non-conventional weapons due to its leadership's support.
The fragmentation of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda may lead to more creative individuals and cells.
Cyber is a space for creative and innovative thinking, vital for recruitment.
The innovative evolutionary process has weaknesses that counterterrorism experts can exploit.
Those seeking to commit acts of violence spend time online, enabling detection through artificial intelligence, predictive analytics, and examination of search history.