ECC 5

Development Since the Paris Agreement

Global warming is accelerating, with current warming at +1.1°C as of 2020 compared to the 1850 baseline. Current policies are projected to lead to a +2.9°C increase by 2100, while pledges and targets aim for +2.4°C.

The Paris Agreement goal is to limit warming to +1.5°C. Exceeding this threshold could lead to staggering sea-level rise, record-breaking droughts and floods, and widespread species loss.

The oceans are deteriorating, with 2018 marking the highest oceanic heating on record. Sea levels are rising by 5 mm every year, equivalent to 2861.771 trillion liters per year. Natural disasters are becoming more frequent, including the three most destructive wildfires on record (2015-2019), Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the largest number of cyclones since the break of the century (2018).

The economic cost of loss and damage by 2030 is estimated to be between US$ 400 billion to US$ 580 billion a year in developing countries, potentially reaching up to US$ 1.8 trillion by 2050. Developing countries are disproportionately affected, with a 1.2% GDP reduction for every additional degree Celsius of warming, according to the IMF.

Climate finance: Developed countries have not met the goal of providing and mobilizing US$ 100 billion per year. The amounts provided were: 2013 (44.6bn), 2014 (52.2bn), 2015 (58.6bn), 2016 (61.8bn), 2017 (71.2bn), 2018 (79.6bn), 2019 (78.9bn).

What is COP?

COP (Conference of the Parties) is the supreme decision-making body of the UNFCCC. Its scope includes the implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP adopts, making decisions necessary to promote the effective implementation of the Convention.

A key task is to review the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties.

The membership includes 197 Parties. The outcome of COP is a Declaration/Agreement/Pact, such as the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21).

Party Negotiation Groups of COP

Several party negotiation groups exist within COP:

• SIDS (Small Island Developing States)

• African Group

• LDCs (Least Developed Countries)

• G77 & China

• AILAC (Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean)

• Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF)

• LMDCs (Like-Minded Developing Countries)

• Arab Group

• EIG (Environmental Integrity Group)

• Umbrella Group

• EU (European Union)

Key Definitions

• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): Non-binding national plans highlighting climate actions, including climate-related targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions, policies, and measures governments aim to implement in response to climate change and as a contribution to achieve the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement.

• Net-zero emission: All man-made greenhouse gas emissions must be removed from the atmosphere through reduction measures, thus reducing the Earth's net climate balance.

• Loss and Damage: Harms caused by anthropogenic climate change.

Six Key Points of the Paris Climate Agreement

Approved by 195 countries, taking effect from 2020. Key points include:

1. Temperature Goal: To keep global temperature increase below $2^{\circ}C$ ($3.6^{\circ}F$) and to pursue efforts to limit it to $1.5^{\circ}C$.

2. Emission Reduction Plans: 186 countries submitted plans detailing how they reduce their greenhouse gas pollution through 2025 or 2030.

3. Financial Commitment: Rich countries committed to $100 billion a year in climate finance for developing countries by 2020, with a commitment to further finance in the future.</p></li><li><p><strong>Emission Reduction Engagement:</strong> Countries should reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. Rich countries should engage in absolute reductions in emissions, while developing countries continue enhancing their mitigation efforts.</p></li><li><p><strong>Reporting and Review:</strong> Starting in 2023, every five years, countries will assess how they are doing in cutting their emissions compared to their national plans.</p></li></ol><h3 id="5ba0d85c-1a81-47ae-bd80-9e06afb55cc5" data-toc-id="5ba0d85c-1a81-47ae-bd80-9e06afb55cc5" collapsed="false" seolevelmigrated="true">COP Locations and Sessions</h3><p>Conferences have been held in various locations:</p><ul><li><p>COP 21: Paris, France (November 2015)</p></li><li><p>COP 22: Marrakech, Morocco (November 2016)</p></li><li><p>COP 23: Bonn, Germany (November 2017)</p></li><li><p>COP 24: Katowice, Poland (December 2018)</p></li><li><p>COP 25: Madrid, Spain (December 2019)</p></li><li><p>COP 26: Glasgow, United Kingdom (October-November 2021)</p></li><li><p>COP 27: Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt (November 2022)</p></li></ul><h3 id="8a98498d-7131-441b-8dd1-ee43210e99cb" data-toc-id="8a98498d-7131-441b-8dd1-ee43210e99cb" collapsed="false" seolevelmigrated="true">Marrakech COP22</h3><p>Main focus: implementation of Paris Agreement.</p><ul><li><p>Paris Agreement not legally binding, but a politically binding model with peer pressure.</p></li><li><p>Encouraging pre-2020 emissions cuts, especially through non-state action.</p></li><li><p>Emissions Gap: Current policies on track for$3.6^{\circ}C$–$4.9^{\circ}C$by 2100. NDCs add up to$2.8^{\circ}C$–$3.5^{\circ}C$of warming by 2100.</p></li><li><p>5 nations plans ‘sufficient’: Morocco, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Bhutan, The Gambia</p></li><li><p>Marrakech set the timetable for completing the Rulebook by COP24 in Poland in 2018.</p></li></ul><h3 id="18fdc9ae-8626-4db0-b640-c4303df98b39" data-toc-id="18fdc9ae-8626-4db0-b640-c4303df98b39" collapsed="false" seolevelmigrated="true">US Presidential Election and COP22 in Marrakech</h3><ul><li><p>Election of Donald Trump as US President distracted and depressed the mood of negotiations.</p></li><li><p>Possible withdrawal of US from either Paris Agreement or the UNFCCC.</p></li><li><p>Possible loss of funds to UNFCCC and$100 billion pa roadmap.

4. China emerges as global climate leader. China clearly sees this as a political opportunity for leadership at global level.

5. India’s silence on Trump noted at Marrakech climate talks.

Fiji’s Climate Conference in Bonn – COP23 Decisions

Main COP23 decision – known as the Fiji Momentum for Implementation – contains three elements:

• a call for enhanced Pre-2020 Implementation and Ambition,

• a reiteration of the Paris Agreement Work Programme,

• and the design of the Facilitative Dialogue, rebranded by Fiji as the Talanoa Dialogue.

• Talanoa Dialogue aims to enhance ambition in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Fiji’s Climate Conference in Bonn – COP23 Results

• Very Slow progress on Paris Agreement rulebook

• Some positive outcomes:

  • Breakthrough in 5 year deadlock on agriculture.

  • Agreement on Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform

  • Agreement on Gender Action Plan

COP24 Katowice

Focus on the "Rulebook", "work program", and "implementation rules”. Topics included:

• NDC guidance and accounting – not common time frames

• Adaptation communication, increased visibility of adaptation efforts

• Monitoring of finance flows, adaptation fund & discussions on new finance goal start 2020

• Common set of rules with flexibility to report under the enhanced transparency framework

• Input and outcomes of the Global stocktake (Art.14), like an inventory

• Modalities and procedures for involvement of the Committee to facilitate implementation and promote compliance

Ambition Mechanisms in the Paris Agreement

Includes Talanoa Dialogue (2018), communicate new or updated NDCs (2020), UN Climate and Development Summit (2023), Global stocktake (2023 & 2028), Net zero emissions 2050 & climate resilience.

Challenges of NDC implementation: Asian and Pacific Countries

• Transition from rural to urban, with fast-growing cities, housing large vulnerabilities and inequalities

• A growing middle class, whose consumption patterns will likely place greater demand on natural resources

• The impact of technology on jobs

• Urbanisation and industrialization will call for more energy demand, at the same time there is vast renewable energy potential and regional expertise

Status of NDC implementation in Asia Pacific

Various levels of implementation, including completed NDC implementation plans, adaptation/mitigation measures, institutional coordination, mobilization of financial resources, and MRV monitoring systems.

Options for Enhancing NDCs

Involve strengthening or adding GHG targets, sectoral non-GHG targets, updating information on trends, impacts, vulnerabilities, national adaptation planning, current & near-term planning and action, monitoring/evaluation/learning plans, long-term goals or vision, information on gaps & barriers, policies and actions, implementation measures and providing information to enhance clarity, transparency & understanding.

Challenges of NDC implementation

• High income countries (HICs): Reliance on oil industry, economic diversification, role of private sector, aligning climate actions with development agenda

• Middle Income Countries (MICS): Conditional mitigation targets, access to climate investments, climate-resilient development, coordination mechanisms, and MRV

• LDCs / Crisis countries: Planning for implementation, capacity to implement strategies, conditional mitigation targets, setting up institutional arrangements, access to finance.

COP 25 Madrid outcomes

• Loss and damage: No substantial result in establishing financial mechanisms.

• Climate finance: USD 90 million new financial pledges to the Adaptation Fund (AF); The Paris Agreement commits countries to provide at least USD 100 billion per year by 2020

• 80 nations signalled their intention to submit an enhanced climate action plan (NDCs), working towards achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, representing just 10.5% of world emissions.

• The EU agreed to a new climate deal called “The Green Deal” with climate neutral target for 2050.

• No agreement was reached on the rules regulating the carbon market.

COP26 Glasgow 2021

COP26 was special in marking the first five-year interval after Paris, a deadline for countries to demonstrate tangible progress and ratchet up climate ambitions.

COP26: Important Agenda

• Ensuring commitments from major carbon-emitting countries to limit carbon emissions to keep global warming below $1.5^{\circ}C$.

• Scaling up climate funds urgently to support climate-vulnerable countries and fulfilling the USD 100 billion pledge.

• Ensuring a bigger share of climate funds towards adaptation.

• Finalizing the Paris Rulebook to ensure accountability.

• Establishing a mechanism for loss and damage.

COP 26 Glasgow outcomes

Outcomes received mixed reactions, with some considering it a failure and others seeing it as battered but alive.

COP 27 Sharm el-Sheikh

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated