Unit 5 - AP United States Gov & Politics

Voting Rights:

Expansion of Voting Rights - Voting rights for Americans have expanded dramatically over the years as seen by:


15th Amendment - made it illegal for states to prevent voting due to a person’s race


17th Amendment - made it so that senators are directly elected by the people instead of being chosen by state legislators


19th Amendment - granted voting rights to women


24th Amendment - declared that poll taxes were illegal


26th Amendment - lowered the voting age from 21 to 18.


Voter Behavior - There are several different models that describe how voters make choices at the ballot box. These include:


Rational Choice voting - in which the voter makes their decision based on what helps them most - i.e. Joe votes for Donald Trump because he calculates that Trump’s support for tax cuts will help his small business


Retrospective voting - in which the voter makes their decision based on the past actions of a candidate - i.e. Bob votes for Barack Obama in 2012 because he appreciates the passage of Obamacare during his first term 


Prospective voting - in which the voter makes their decision based on hopes for a candidate’s future actions - i.e. Sally votes for Barack Obama in 2008 because she is hopeful that he will end the war in Iraq if elected


Party-line (Straight ticket) voting - in which the voter makes their decision based exclusively on which party they support - i.e. John knows little about the candidates and their policy views, but he has always supported Republicans, so he votes for anyone with an ‘(R)’ next to their name.


Voter Turnout - There are numerous factors that impact how many voters turn out each election. This is highly dependent on state election laws, which vary widely. Some factors include:


  • Voter Registration laws - all citizens must register if they wish to vote - however, this usually must be done at least few days or weeks before the election in order to participate (unless the state allows for same day voter registration)


  • Voter ID laws - many states have laws that require voters to present ID before voting. Studies have shown that these laws tend to deflate turnout amongst low-income voters


  • Election level - National elections receive the most media coverage and tend to draw the highest turnout. State elections draw slightly lower voter turnout. Local elections tend to receive very low voter turnout.


  • Election type - Presidential elections draw very high turnout, while midterm and off-year elections tend to draw significantly fewer voters.


There are numerous other factors that political figures can use to predict how people will vote and who will turn out.


Party Identification - people who identify strongly with a party or ideology tend to be more politically engaged and consistently turn out for elections. These groups are sometimes referred to as the party’s ‘base’


Candidate Characteristics - some people place a high value on the personal traits of a candidate. Personal feelings toward a candidate can impact voter choice.


Demographic Issues - some groups in American society tend to vote in similar patterns. For example, the last few elections have seen white working class voters overwhelmingly support Republican candidates. Likewise, African-American voters tend to heavily favor Democratic candidates. These generalizations are always subject to change (we are in the midst of one now, as formerly Democrat-supporting working class voters have moved to the right, and former Republican strongholds in the suburbs have moved left)

Political Parties:

What Political Parties do:

  • Recruit candidates - parties recruit individuals who match their ideological leanings and who they believe will be competitive in a general election

  • Nominate candidates - in situations in which there are multiple candidates from the same party, the party decides who will be nominated, usually based on primary election results

  • Get out the vote - parties spend vast sums of money and employ thousands of people to persuade voters and drive turnout in their favor

  • Create party platforms - parties create a platform as general statements describing the party’s ideological beliefs and policy goals

  • Campaign management and fundraising - parties work to fundraise and develop campaigning strategies for their candidates

  • Organize Congress - the majority party in Congress decides on committee assignments and sets the policy agenda


How political parties have changed: 

Political parties frequently have to change strategies to appeal to different voter demographics. There are several other factors that can provoke a political party to change and adapt:


  • Election results - a party that endures a disappointing election cycle may be forced to adapt its messaging and policy goals to remain electorally viable

  • Candidate-centered campaigning - the rise of new media outlets that put a focus on personal characteristics and campaign drama has forced the parties to focus more on the personal appeal of candidates rather than policy. Parties have a less consequential role in controlling nominations than they have in years past due to the increased emphasis on importance of an individual candidate’s appeal


  • The rise of social media and ‘big data’ analysis has forced parties to become more adept at using technology to identify and turn out potential supporters


Third Parties

Although Democrats and Republicans dominate American politics, there are also occasionally third party candidates (Libertarian Party, Green Party, etc.). These candidates rarely win elections due to inferior financial backing, less media coverage, and the winner-take-all nature of American elections. However, they can still have an impact:


  • ‘Spoiler effect’ - even if the third party candidate only claims a small percentage of the vote, it may siphon enough votes off of a major party candidate that it changes who wins the election

  • Overton window - sometimes major party candidates will adopt an element of the third party candidate’s platform if it appears to be appealing to voters

Interest Groups:

Characteristics of Interest Groups

  • Interest groups can range from very specific, single-issue groups (i.e. National Chicken Council wants to improve conditions for chicken farmers) to groups with wide-ranging and diverse policy goals


  • Interest groups build relationships with political parties, specific politicians, bureaucratic agencies, etc.


  • Interest groups can also participate in fundraising, get out the vote operations, and the drafting of legislation


  • Generally speaking, even small interest groups can be very influential if they have access to significant financial resources. Wealthier groups can afford to pay for lobbyists who pressure members of Congress to pass favorable legislation, and they will also frequently work to build personal relationships with policymakers (i.e. through hosting fundraisers, making donations, etc.) that ensure they will have continued access to the policymaking process.


  • The opposite is also true - very large interest groups can have limited influence if they lack significant financial resources and / or personal connections to those in policy making roles. Many groups are also forced to deal with the ‘free rider’ problem - the common psychological impulse to avoid putting in the work to create political change when one believes there is a possibility that others will do all of the hard work and they will still reap the benefits. 


  • Due to their close relationships with Congress and the bureaucracy, one of the major areas where interest groups dedicate their focus is the creation of the federal budget - this is most clearly seen in the concept of “iron triangles” - interest groups that prefer less strict bureaucratic regulations lobby members of Congress to increase federal funding for bureaucratic agencies, which then create more relaxed rules and regulations to appease the interest group 


Elections:

Incumbency - when a candidate is running for reelection, they are referred to as the incumbent. For reasons that aren’t totally clear, incumbents often have a small advantage in elections. 


Primary Elections

Primaries feature multiple candidates from the same party who face off to claim the party’s nomination. Primary elections work similarly to any normal election, with some exceptions. In an open primary, any registered voter can participate. In a closed primary, only voters registered with the appropriate party may participate (i.e. only Republicans can vote in Republican primaries). Some states also hold caucuses, in which voters publicly choose a candidate. In some caucuses, voters can switch their support to other candidates during the process, leading to a freewheeling, almost circus-like atmosphere. After the results of state primaries have been tallied, both major parties hold party conventions in July of an election year, at which they formally tally the primary results and nominate a candidate.


Presidential Elections

Presidential elections occur every four years, and they are decided by the electoral college. In the electoral college, every state has a number of electors equal to their number of members in Congress. In most states, those electors are bound to support whichever candidate wins a plurality of the votes in their home state. Whichever candidate claims the most electoral votes is victorious. This system can lead to situations where one candidate wins the national popular vote but loses the election (i.e. Clinton losing to Trump in 2016). The electoral college has been a controversial topic throughout American history, and there have been numerous attempts to replace it with a more democratic system. The fact that candidates who win by even very small margins take all of a state’s electoral votes (winner-take-all) also encourages candidates to only campaign in a few key swing states rather than appealing to the whole country.


Midterm Elections take place midway through a president’s term in office. One third of Senate seats and every House seat are up for election in midterm years. Congressional candidates go through a similar process as a presidential candidate (i.e. primary elections, etc.). The main difference is that congressional candidates are elected by popular vote in their state / district rather than using the electoral college.

Campaigns:

Elements of Modern Campaigns

In early American history, campaigning was viewed as unnecessary and even inappropriate. Today, campaigning for office has changed dramatically.


  • Hiring strategists, pollsters, consultants, etc - large campaigns hire hundreds of workers to support campaign work, including strategists / advisors that develop campaign and media strategies, pollsters to conduct focus groups and internal polling, and organizers to work on ‘get out the vote’ efforts. Campaigns also rely on volunteers to help drive turnout via phone banking and door-to-door canvassing.


  • Longer campaign cycles - campaigning for president often begins just after midterm elections, nearly two years before the actual election


  • More reliance on new forms of media for advertising and fundraising - online advertising and outreach through different forms of communication such as email and social media have become crucial for both driving voter support and fundraising


  • Rising Costs - it has become increasingly more expensive to actually run and fund a campaign


Campaign Finance

As previously mentioned, running a campaign is quite expensive. There are a few ways that candidates can fundraise to help run a campaign:


  • Grassroots fundraising - in which the candidate appeals to middle and lower-income voters to provide small ($100 or less) donations 


  • Form a Political Action Committee (PAC) - an organization which can raise money, usually through larger donations. Donations are still limited by campaign finance law (~$5,000 limit)


  • Outside groups - after the SCOTUS decision in Citizens United v. FEC, in which the Court ruled that limits on political spending by outside groups like corporations and unions was an unconstitutional violation of their free speech rights, the 2010s saw the rise of Super PACs, organizations which may collect unlimited donations from corporate donors. While these Super PACs technically can’t coordinate with political campaigns, this rule is effectively unenforceable. Many have argued that Citizens United  has allowed corporate donors to have a disproportionate amount of influence over elections, while others argue that SCOTUS was correct to protect the free speech rights of corporate groups and unions.


There have been attempts to regulate campaign finance, namely the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, which attempted to limit corporate influence and also mandated that all campaigns include ‘I’m _________________, and I approve this message’ during campaign advertisements. However, Citizens United effectively declared large parts of this legislation to be unconstitutional.

Media:

The Media and Politics

The media has always had a massive influence over how people gather knowledge on political issues. While newspapers and TV formerly had the most influence in the media landscape, the rise of social media news sources like Twitter, Tiktok, and Facebook has profoundly changed how people consume the news. Different forms of media can have disparate effects on public opinion:


Coverage of News Events - the tone of the coverage and the choice on which events to emphasize can influence how the public perceives news events


Investigative Journalism - more rare because it is more expensive and time-consuming, but can lead to ‘bombshell’ reports that have a massive effect on public opinion. The most famous example is Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein’s investigative reporting on the Watergate scandal for The Washington Post, which helped bring down the Nixon administration in the early 1970s


Election Coverage - the modern media has often covered election campaigns as ‘horse races’ in which the media emphasizes day-to-day polling results and candidate characteristics such as likeability instead of focusing on actual policy issues. Many have argued that this type of coverage leads the media to fail in its duty to educate the public on policy issues and drives polarization by reducing elections to zero-sum ‘games’ in which only one ‘side’ can emerge victorious


Changing Media

We live in a period of rapid transformation for how people consume news. Some major shifts include:


More choices - in the old days, there were 3 channels on TV and most people only had easy access to the local newspaper. Nowadays, there are nearly unlimited news sources available online, 24/7, which has led to a more fragmented public opinion


More ideologically themed news sources - neutrality and an objective style, while still relevant, has given way to more news sources that lean openly to one side of the political spectrum. This is exacerbated by the fact that ideological programming tends to draw more viewer engagement and higher ratings (or more clicks if online)


Algorithms - social media technologies often make it so that individuals predominantly see media sources that reinforce their prior beliefs. Many have argued that this increases political polarization.


“Fake news” - a rising belief shared across the political spectrum that certain news sources are irrevocably biased and are not to be trusted.