Levitsky and Way

Introduction

  • Context: The article discusses the trajectory of American democracy following Donald Trump's presidency.

  • Authors: Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way.

  • Aim: To explore how Trump’s return to power signifies a shift towards authoritarianism via competitive authoritarianism rather than traditional dictatorship.

The Shift in Democratic Sentiment

  • 2016 Presidential Election: Trump’s initial election instigated significant concern for democracy among U.S. elites.

  • 2025 Climate: As Trump returns, many politicians, media figures, and business leaders view previous concerns as exaggerated, leading to widespread indifference towards threats to democracy.

  • Threat Level: Despite the calm sentiment, dangers to democracy are greater than any period in recent U.S. history.

Author Backgrounds

  • Steven Levitsky: David Rockefeller Professor of Latin American Studies and Government at Harvard University.

  • Lucan A. Way: Distinguished Professor of Democracy at the University of Toronto. Both have authored "Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War."

Decline of American Democracy

  • Freedom House Report: U.S. dropped from a freedom index score of 92 (2014) to 83 (2021), indicating a significant backslide.

  • Constitutional Checks: Failings highlighted by Trump's attempt to overturn election results, with lack of accountability from Congress or judiciary.

  • Republican Party Dynamics: Trump dominates the party, which has purged anti-Trump factions.

Projected Future of Democracy under Trump

  • Second Administration Issues: Warning that standard liberal democratic criteria (full adult suffrage, fair elections, civil liberties) may cease to be met.

  • Nature of Authoritarianism: Predicts a competitive authoritarianism where elections occur but power is abused to favor incumbents, rather than outright dictatorship.

Examples of Competitive Authoritarianism

  • Case Studies: Countries like Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, Peru under Alberto Fujimori, and Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan serve as modern examples.

  • Definition: Competitive authoritarianism retains the formal structure of democracy but with significant abuse of power that disadvantages opposition.

Political Life Transformations in the U.S.

  • Opposition Costs: Prediction that political, media, and civic opposition will face heightened risks, such as IRS audits for Democratic donors or punitive actions against critical media.

  • Public Opposition: While there remains room for dissent, it may become increasingly daunting to engage publicly against government actions.

Weaponization of the State

  • Forms of Authoritarianism: Envisions violations of civil liberties, e.g., possible military engagement against protesters.

  • Government Bureaucracy: The politicization of bureaucracy seen as a major mechanism for subverting democratic principles.

Mechanisms for Weaponization

  • Justice Departments & Bureaucracies: Use of agencies to politically target rivals or dissenters, blurring the lines between governance and partisanship.

  • Historical Context: Similar uses by historical figures such as J. Edgar Hoover and Richard Nixon.

Potential Changes Under Trump

  • Removal of Civil Service Protections: Revival of the Schedule F initiative to replace career civil servants with political loyalists.

  • Increased Political Appointments: Anticipation of a significant rise in partisan appointees across federal agencies.

Social and Economic Implications

  • Economic Pressure: Expectation that businesses will align with government preferences to secure contracts, loans and avoid scrutiny.

  • Chilling Effects: Fear among media and business leaders leading to self-censorship and alignment with government rhetoric.

The Role of Civil Society

  • The Strength of Institutions: American institutions potentially act as bulwarks against the dissolution of democracy, contrasting with regimes in Hungary and Turkey.

  • Resilience Indicators: Civil society and wealth could provide counterweights to authoritarian pressure, although these features can't entirely safeguard against co-optation.

The Dynamics of Opposition

  • Challenges for Opposition: The weaponized state makes political opposition increasingly difficult, threatening the ability of dissenters to function effectively.

The Consequences of Retreating from Opposition

  • Long-Term Effects: Self-sidelining of opposition due to escalated fears may lead to weakened societal pushback, ultimately supporting authoritarian practices.

Conclusion: Holding the Line on Democracy

  • Final Concerns: The article concludes with a warning that though Trump’s administration may not achieve fully authoritarian control, it poses a significant threat that must be proactively resisted by the opposition elite and civil society.

  • Need for Vigilance: The fight for democracy remains precarious; consistent civic engagement and opposition are essential to counter the drift towards competitive authoritarianism.