GOVT 2306 Political Parties Lecture Notes

Lecture Overview on Political Parties

• The lecture focuses on the impact of political parties, particularly third parties and independent candidates, on elections.

• Key concepts introduced include:

  • Definition of political parties

  • Evolution of the two-party system in the U.S.

  • Party identification and voter behavior

Definition of Political Parties

• A political party is defined as:

  • A group of voters, activists, candidates, and office holders who identify with a particular party label.

  • The main goal is to elect individuals to public office.

Historical Context

• Key figures in the development of the modern American party system include:

  • Alexander Hamilton (Federalists)

  • Thomas Jefferson (Anti-Federalists)

• The evolution of the two-party system began shortly after the Constitution was established.

  • Since approximately $1800$, Republicans and Democrats became the two major parties.

• Overview of presidential elections from $1860$ to the present shows:

  • Dominance by Republicans and Democrats, with a brief period of Republican dominance between $1876-1896$.

  • Competitive inter-party dynamics in the late $20^{th}$ century.

Major Party Control Timeline

• Presidential Election Impact:

  • Reconstruction period showed Republican dominance from $1876-1896$.

  • Competitive elections from $1896-1929$ leading up to the Great Depression.

  • The $1930s-1940s$ exhibited Democratic dominance under Franklin D. Roosevelt.

  • Since the $1950s$, U.S. politics has been characterized by "closely competitive elections" between the two parties.

• President Examples:

  • Democratic Presidents:

    • Jimmy Carter ($1976-1980$)

    • Bill Clinton ($1992-2000$)

    • Barack Obama ($2008-2016$)

  • Republican Presidents:

    • Ronald Reagan ($1880-1988$)

    • George H. W. Bush ($1988-1992$)

    • George W. Bush ($2000-2008$)

    • Donald Trump ($2016-2020$)

The Impact of Minor Parties

• Minor parties, including the Green Party and Libertarian Party, are typically not a threat to the two major parties but have shown significant impact in certain elections:

  • Examples include Ross Perot in $1992$ and Ralph Nader in $2000$.

• Ross Perot's Campaign (1992):

  • Started as an independent, later formed the Reform Party.

  • Achieved $18.9\%$ of the national popular vote, a notable achievement for a minor party.

  • Despite this, he secured $0$ electoral votes due to the Electoral College system.

  • Contextual factors influenced perceptions of his impact on Bush and Clinton's votes.

Effects of Ross Perot on 1992 Election

• Analyzed the swing in voter support during the election:

  • Early polls showed potential success for Perot but were impacted by his campaign suspension.

  • Exit polls indicated that Perot likely siphoned votes away predominantly from George H. W. Bush.

  • Analysts suggest it would have been a "neck-and-neck race" between Bush and Clinton if Perot had not run.

Ralph Nader's Influence on 2000 Election

• Ralph Nader, running for the Green Party, gained $2.74\%$ of the national popular vote.

• Key points include:

  • Al Gore lost to George W. Bush by a "razor-thin margin" based on the Electoral College ratio of $271:266$.

  • In critical states, Nader's presence arguably swayed voters from Gore, particularly in Florida where Bush won by just $537$ votes, while Nader received approximately $97,000$ votes.

• External factors such as ballot confusion (specifically the butterfly ballot) also played a role in the election outcome.

Impact of Jill Stein in 2016 Election

• Jill Stein's Green Party bid and its minimal impact:

  • Her support was less than Ralph Nader's national support.

  • While some argue she detracted from Hillary Clinton's votes, overall analysis suggests her impact was limited compared to historical third-party runs.

  • Exit polls indicate Clinton might have performed better without Stein, but not enough to definitively change the outcome across all swing states.