China's Economy: Vanishing Data and Economic Concerns

The Disappearing Data

China has stopped publishing hundreds of statistics, creating difficulty in understanding the country's economic situation.
Data points that have gone dark include land sales, foreign investment, unemployment indicators, cremations, and even soy sauce production reports.
Authorities have not provided clear reasons for withholding these data, contributing to uncertainty.
This lack of transparency comes as the Chinese economy faces challenges such as excessive debt and a struggling real estate market.

The disappearing data makes it harder to assess China's economic situation during a critical period, including a trade war with the U.S. that is expected to negatively impact China and global growth.
Plunging trade with the U.S. has already caused production shutdowns and job cuts.
Economists have long questioned the reliability of China's GDP data, and these concerns have grown recently.
Official figures indicated GDP growth of 5\% last year and 5.2\% in 2023, but some estimate that these numbers are overstated by 2 to 3 percentage points.

Concerns about the reliability of China's GDP figures are not new.
Former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reportedly referred to GDP data as “man-made” in 2007, according to a leaked U.S. diplomatic cable.
Li Keqiang said he preferred to track electricity consumption, rail-freight volumes, and new bank loans as indicators.
Li Keqiang considered official GDP figures to be “for reference only.”
China's official GDP growth matching the government's target has been met with skepticism from economists.
Alternative data, such as retail sales and construction activity, suggest a weaker economic picture.
Bank of Finland and Capital Economics' analyses have indicated more significant GDP swings and lower estimates than China's official reports.

In December, economist Gao Shanwen suggested China’s economic growth might be around 2\% in recent years.
Gao Shanwen's statements led to his being disciplined and banned from speaking publicly, following an order from Xi Jinping.
The Securities Association of China has cautioned brokerages to ensure their economists positively influence investor confidence.

China’s statistics bureau defends its data practices, asserting improved data quality and measures to ensure accuracy.
Goldman Sachs developed an alternative method for measuring China’s economic growth using import data as a proxy for domestic spending, assuming trade data is harder to manipulate.
This approach indicated China’s growth in 2024 averaged 3.7\%. Another analysis by Rhodium Group estimated growth at 2.4\% in 2024.

Maintaining an image of stability is crucial for China’s Communist Party, especially amid economic concerns and competition with the U.S.
Missing data often relates to sensitive or problematic areas, such as the property market.
A collapse in the property market has led to significant losses for households and protests.
During boom years, land sales to developers boosted local government revenues, but the downturn, triggered by credit tightening in 2021, caused financial strain.
A report by Beike Research Institute in 2022 indicated a high housing vacancy rate, raising concerns about oversupply, but the report was later retracted.
Official data on land sales, which plummeted by 48\% in 2022, disappeared in early 2023, impacting local government finances.

In mid-2023, concerns grew regarding the job market for young people.
The official youth unemployment rate reached a record 21.3\%. Economist Zhang Dandan estimated the true rate could be as high as 46.5\%.
Authorities stopped releasing the youth unemployment rate in August 2023, citing the need to revise calculation methods.
A new data series was introduced later, reporting a 14.9\% youth jobless rate, excluding full-time students.
This exclusion deviates from standard statistical practices that count anyone seeking employment as unemployed.

In April 2024, China’s stock market faced turmoil, with foreign investors selling over $2 billion in Chinese stocks.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges ceased publishing real-time data on foreign investor inflows and outflows.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange cited alignment with international practices as the reason.
The CSI 300 benchmark index continued to decline until authorities implemented measures to support the economy in September.
Access to some public data has become more restricted due to a 2021 law and limitations imposed by data providers like Wind Information.

Figures on Chinese toll road operators’ year-end debt balances and the number of new stock-market investors have also disappeared.
China stopped publishing national cremation data after ending its zero-Covid policy in late 2022.
This decision followed estimates of between 1.3 million and 2.1 million potential deaths and government censorship of related discussions.
Data related to the country’s low fertility rate is also missing.
Vaccination data and even seemingly innocuous data, such as estimates of elementary school toilet sizes, have seen inconsistent reporting.
Official soy sauce production data has been discontinued since May 2021.