POLS102: Where Are We Going? Alternative Futures 1

Realism

  • Realism, liberalism, and constructivism are the three basic schools of thought in international relations.
  • Each school has many different strands within it.
  • Understanding these schools provides a foundation for understanding how people think about international relations.
  • These schools don't focus as much as they should on domestic politics.

Basic Concepts

  • Polarity
  • Alliance formation
  • Mutually assured destruction

Liberalism

  • Two primary variants: Kantian and Schumpeterian
  • Many people combine the two.

Constructivism

  • Runs off in many different directions
  • Focus on the original author Wendt.
  • Finamore and Sikhink work on norms and norm cascades

Key Concepts

  • Political culture
  • Identity
  • Development and change
  • Non-state actors

Mururoa Atoll Example

  • Site of French nuclear testing in the Pacific
  • Testing ended nearly 40 years ago, but it is still radioactive and inaccessible.
  • Influential source of New Zealand's international relations and identity
  • Policy that emerged from it became crucial.
  • Emerged through a norm cascade.

Timeline of Events

  • Up to 1958: New Zealand had no objections to nuclear testing.
  • 1966: France moved its nuclear testing to Mururoa Atoll, angering New Zealanders.
  • Protests began to build up in New Zealand.
  • 1973: New Zealand government sent frigates to witness nuclear testing to complain more effectively.
  • France responded by moving all tests underground but left them at Mururoa Atoll.
  • 1976: Protests expanded beyond nuclear testing and formalized into CANWAR (Campaign Against Nuclear Warships).
  • 1981: More organizations emerged: Peace Movement New Zealand (later Peace Movement Aotearoa) and New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone Committees.
  • Widespread protests built across New Zealand.
  • 1984: It became a political campaign issue.
  • The Labour Party promised that if elected, it would no longer allow nuclear ships into New Zealand.
  • New Zealand's primary alliance partners were Australia and the United States (ANZUS).
  • ANZUS worked on the principle that if anybody were to attack New Zealand, Australia, or The US, they would all come to each other's aid.
  • New Zealand's national security was preserved by The United States.
  • The US asked for permission for the USS Buchanan to dock in New Zealand.
  • The USS Buchanan was not nuclear-powered and very unlikely to be carrying nuclear weapons.
  • The US expected New Zealand to quietly allow it.
  • February 1985: The New Zealand government denied access to the USS Buchanan.
  • They said, if you cannot confirm there are no nuclear weapons, we will not allow access to the USS Buchanan.
  • That will eventually lead to the breakup of that ANSYS alliance that we just talked about.
  • July 1985: French secret agents bombed a Greenpeace ship (Rainbow Warrior) that was trying to interfere with nuclear testing at Mururoa.
  • That led to tremendous outrage throughout New Zealand.
  • By this point in time, the Labour government was fully on board, and in 1970, '19 '80 '7, our nuclear free policy was formally enacted.
  • For years afterwards, The United States would push to get us to reverse it.
  • It's become part of New Zealand's identity.
  • New Zealand is nuclear-free.

Realism

  • Realism is based on the fundamental premise that the nature of the international system is anarchy.
  • There is no police at the international level.
  • If The US, Russia, or China decides to do something, they can do it unless somebody even bigger goes to war to stop them.
  • Since the 16th century, the nation-state has been the primary unit in the international system.
  • Nation states are self-interested.
  • National interest is identified in terms of power.
  • Hans Morgenthau claimed that politics is about the pursuit of power.
  • States are profit maximizers because in an anarchy, the more powerful you are, the more control you have over your nation's position and role and ability to do things in the world.
  • Ken Waltz argued that nations seek to secure their own interests but not always maximize power.
  • Morality is irrelevant in international relations.

Definition of Anarchy

  • Fundamental to most schools of international relations
  • Definition by Waltz: the structure of the international political system is defined first by its organizing principle, which is anarchy.
  • It is described as a realm of self-help.
  • You're always on your own in a system full of other powerful states all pursuing their own interests.

Playground Analogy

  • The international relations system is like a playground that is unregulated, no teachers, no police, nobody, just the playground and the kids.

Unipolar System

  • One person may dominate.
  • In international relations, a unipolar system occurs when one bully dominates and tells everyone else what to do.
  • The bully that is able to control everything internationally is called the hegemon.
  • The United States has been the hegemon since the end of the Cold War.

Bipolar System

  • Two relatively equal bullies in a playground who will fight against each other.
  • Everyone else has to be very careful around these two roughly equal bullies.
  • Rather than hegemon, we talk about superpowers.
  • Bipolar system after World War II: The United States and Russia were the two poles.
  • China would slowly grow to rival them, but it remained mostly a bipolar system throughout the Cold War, despite China emerging as kind of a regional power.

Multipolar System

  • Several relatively equal bullies.
  • We often talk about the bullies as great powers rather than superpowers.
  • Multipolar system up until World War I where we had a whole bunch of roughly equal powers.
  • We had Germany, France, England, The United States, all roughly equal in their power.
  • Others: Russia, the Austro-Hungarian Empire

Containing Bullies

  • The fact that we live in a world where bullies are able to dominate shapes the way that nation states think.
  • Form alliances to strengthen themselves relative to the bullies.
  • ANZUS alliance: The US had a treaty alliance with Australia and New Zealand.
  • Before that alliance, we relied on Britain.
  • Alliance formation is central to international relations.
  • The phrase that we use for that is called balancing.
  • It's called a balance of power when it's roughly equally balanced.
  • Realists mostly believe this is the most common way, to maximize your power in opposition to the bully.
  • Early realists were studying a multipolar system, and alliances were the primary technique at the time.
  • It's also the reason realists can't explain us breaking away from ANZUS. It makes no sense.

Bandwagoning

  • Sometimes, on the playground, you might decide to join the bully.
  • If you don't want to be bullied, you become the bully's best friend.
  • Scholars mostly argue that generally people will try to balance.
  • Bandwagoning tends to occur only in some specific circumstances.

Circumstances for Bandwagoning

  • The bully either coerces people into joining them, isolates them, or bribes them.
  • Geographical or other special circumstances make it impossible to balance.
  • Bandwagoning often occurs in a world where no matter how many nations join against the bully, they're still not strong enough.
  • A unipolar world where the hegemon stands far above everybody else, it becomes almost impossible to balance against that hegemon.
  • Nations bandwagon because they want influence with the bully.
  • You might bandwagon actually out of good intent because you believe that if you can whisper in the air the bully, you can help to make sure they don't beat up all the other kids.
  • Stephen Walt argued that nations don't balance against other power, they balance against threat.
  • You balance more against threats. You bandwagon more if you don't think it's a threat, if you think that there are benefits from joining sides with the good bully.

Arms Race

  • What happens when we get these strong alliances?
  • Maybe there are two bullies out there, bipolar system.
  • And they each form strong alliances and they can see the possibility of conflict is imminent and they begin making snowballs, and gathering rocks for the fight that will inevitably come.
  • Two different types of arms: accumulating more weapons and expanding the power of existing weapons.
  • Type of weapon and also amount of weapons are part of an arms race.

Détente

  • This can lead oftentimes to what we call detente.
  • Detente occurs when the two sides look at that pile of rocks, look at that pile of snowballs, and think, even if I win, I'm gonna suffer.
  • Reducing threat by easing tensions, pulling everything back from the brink of conflict, and making conflict a little bit less likely between alliances.

US and USSR Détente Examples

  • 1968: Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to try to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons.
  • 1972: Signed Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT). That was to limit the total number of weapons by each side.
  • 1972: Banned anti-ballistic missile systems. Allowed ABMs in only two cities.
  • 1979: SALT II, more limitations
  • 1987: INF Treaty, Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces.
  • 1991: START one
  • End of the Cold War not long after that.

Deterrence

  • How do we stop war?
  • The way to do it is to make it either very, very costly or impossible for either side to win.
  • If nobody can win a war, nobody wants to start a war.
  • Stop the other side from wanting to stop a war. Deter them from trying to start a war.
  • Ways to Deter:
    • Alliance formation
    • Make the costs of victory as high as possible.
  • It's important you make the consequences clear or you can't deter.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)

  • Making victory impossible for both sides is the best way to prevent a war.
  • We need to ensure if one side tries to strike the other with nuclear weapons, they won't get away with it.
  • If they strike first, the other has to be able to strike back.
  • If both sides know they can't win, they will be hugely damaged. Nobody will strike the first blow.
  • Second strike capability or mutually assured destruction.
  • That's what ABM treaty was all about.
  • They wanted to make it impossible for one side to strike the other first, quietly, secretly, get away with it, and be able to live happily ever after.
  • They wanted to make sure that any time you strike, the other side is going to be able to destroy you in return.

Problems With Realism

  • Realism took a heavy blow because they had no ability to predict the end of the Cold War.
  • Nothing anywhere in this theory will predict that one of those nations would collapse.

Liberalism

  • Two forms: Kantian and Schumpeterian

Kantian Liberalism

  • Democratic nations are more peaceful because citizens will not vote to go to war.
  • Democratic nations will not start a war. They might have to defend themselves, but they won't start a war.
  • We should then begin to form federations of democracies.
  • Those federations of democracy would create a separate peace within.
  • EU was based on this.
  • Principles of peace are entrenched in the entire international system, and we all live in a lovely world of peace and prosperity.

Schumpeterian Liberalism

  • The key to international peace was international trade.
  • Nations had to fight wars because they built up these powerful machines of war.
  • Export-oriented trade promotes peace.
  • The more powerful those export-oriented traders became, that merchant class became, the more they depended on trade for income, the more they disliked war.
  • Democracy opens up a path to power for those people.
  • They favor free trade, low taxes, and small government.
  • Same endpoint: Peace between nations that become part of these federations.
  • Overcoming anarchy by the hope of a better future.
  • The UN fits in right here, overcoming anarchy by appealing to future prosperity for all.

Key Differences Between Realism and Liberalism

  • Realism thought that the nature of the state was irrelevant, but liberals believe that the type of government and ideology does matter.
  • Realism prioritizes security, war, and weapons. Liberalism prioritizes economic issues and domestic politics
  • Realism likes balances of power and deterrent. Liberalism requires expanding democracy and free trade around the world because democracies are by nature peaceful and free trade creates mutual interdependence.
    • Example: Iraq war

Constructivism

  • By far the newest, only goes back to about the 1970s.
  • Alexander Wendt is most often credited with being the first constructivist.

Key Tenets

  • National interests are not objective reality. They're constructed.
  • Anarchy is also what we make of it.
  • There are three different kinds of anarchy, three ways of thinking about anarchy.
  • The nature of our world will depend on how we decide to think about anarchy.

Three Kinds of Anarchy

  • Hobbesian anarchy: survival of the fittest, other nations are the enemy, and they have to be destroyed if possible.
  • Lockean anarchy: other nations are rivals but not enemies, intense competition, but the goal is not to destroy other nations.
  • Kantian anarchy: other nations are friends, allows the formation of federations of peace.

Political Culture

  • Later scholars argued that political culture is not just inherent in the system.
  • Individual countries also have political cultures.
  • We have a political culture built around our nuclear-free zone.
  • Our political culture is one of independence. We like to think that we have a moral voice, and we'll speak up for what's right.
  • That matters in the way we think of ourselves, the way we behave, and in the way others expect us to behave.
  • Nations balance against threat. If they think New Zealand is not threatening, they'll behave accordingly.

Non State Actors

  • The greatest strength of constructivism is its ability to incorporate non-state actors.
  • Realism said the primary unit is the nation-state and has been since the sixteenth century.
  • Constructivism says we have a whole host of new actors who matter in the international system.
  • Could be NGOs like Amnesty International or Greenpeace or the Red Cross.
  • Could be transnational criminal gangs or transnational terrorists who don't belong to a state.
  • They can be influential individuals.
  • They've largely been neglected by realism and liberalism.
  • Non-state actors are behind the norm cascade we began with today when they began the nuclear-free movement movement in New Zealand that would eventually have such a huge impact on New Zealand foreign policy and our alliance structures and the entire alliance structure in our part of the world.