Comprehensive Notes on the Institutions of American Elections

Introduction to American Elections

Elections serve as the foundational mechanism for democratic control, acting as a blunt yet effective instrument for citizens to influence government. While individuals do not typically vote directly on specific laws, tax rates, or interest rates at the federal level, they use elections to decide whether to "stay the course" or seek a new direction. In the United States, elections are frequent, regular, and ubiquitous, occurring for federal, state, and local governments with greater intensity than in any other democracy. There are more than $89,000$ governments in the U.S., nearly all run by elected bodies. A typical voter may have the opportunity to vote three or four times in a single year, deciding on candidates, bond issues, and local questions.

The Challenges of Information: Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard

Citizens act as "principals" who hire "agents" (politicians) to represent them. This relationship suffers from two primary informational problems:

• Adverse Selection: This is a problem of "hidden information." Voters cannot know for certain which candidate is best suited for a job. It is difficult to judge a candidate's true competence to write legislation or their genuine commitment to constituents' interests before they are elected.
• Moral Hazard: This is a problem of "hidden actions." Once elected, representatives are difficult to monitor. Voters cannot observe every deal made or every vote cast in committees. This creates a risk that politicians will act in their own interest rather than the public's.

Voters mitigate these problems using simple heuristics, such as holding the party in power accountable for economic performance (e.g., rejecting incumbents in 1980, 1992, and 2020; rewarding them in 1984, 1996, 2004, and 2012).

Case Study: The 2020 and 2022 Elections

The 2020 election was characterized by extreme volatility and complexity due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Impact of COVID-19: After three years of prosperity ($2017$–$2020$), the Trump administration faced over one million American deaths and a halted economy.
• Election Results: Joe Biden won the 2020 national election by $7,000,000$ votes. However, the victory was narrow in Congress. The House Democratic majority shrank, and the Senate initially had $50$ Republicans and $48$ Democrats.
• Georgia Runoffs: On January 5, 2021, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won two runoff seats in Georgia, creating a $50$-$50$ tie in the Senate, which Democrats controlled via the Vice President's tie-breaking vote.
• Democratic Transition: Despite claims that the 2020 election was "stolen," multiple courts found no basis of fact for these claims. The peaceful transition of power is the hallmark of democracy, though the 2020 election faced significant challenges involving segments of the public refusing to accept the outcome.

Institutional Foundations of Elections: The Four Key Rules

American elections are governed by a mix of federal and state laws that manifest the "institution principle." Four features are central:

1. Who: Universal Adult Suffrage. All citizens over the age of $18$ have the right to vote, a status achieved after a long history of expansion from the original restriction to White, male property owners over $21$.
2. How: The Australian Ballot and Secrecy. Voters use the Australian ballot, which lists all candidates for a given office and allows the voter to select any candidate in secret. This replaced "party ballots" and enables "split-ticket voting," where a voter chooses candidates from different parties for different offices.
3. Where: Single-Member Districts. Most U.S. offices are elected from geographic districts. The principle of "one person, one vote," established in Baker v. Carr (1962), requires these districts to have roughly equal populations. The Senate and Electoral College are exceptions; California's $40,000,000$ people have the same number of Senators as Wyoming's $600,000$.
4. What It Takes to Win: Plurality Rule. For most offices, the candidate who receives the most votes wins, even if they do not achieve a majority (over $50\%$). This is often called "first past the post."

Voter Registration and the Definition of the Electorate

The U.S. electorate consists of approximately $235,000,000$ people (roughly three-fourths of the total population), excluding children under $18$, noncitizens ($13,000,000$), and incarcerated/ex-felon populations ($3$ to $6$ million).

• Registration Barriers: Voting is a two-step process in the U.S. (register, then vote). Registration lists are vital for sorting voters into precincts and managing unique ballot constellations due to overlapping jurisdictions.
• Reforms:
  • The National Voter Registration Act (1993): Known as the "motor voter" law, it allows registration at the DMV or military recruitment offices.
  • Automatic Voter Registration (AVR): Enacted in many states, data is electronically transferred from the DMV to voter rolls.
  • Same-Day Registration: Available in $22$ states and D.C. as of 2024.
• Voter Identification: Two-thirds of states require ID. While proponents cite fraud prevention, social scientists find fraud to be negligible and ID laws to have minimal effects on turnout for already-registered voters.

Voter Turnout: Comparative and Historical Analysis

US voter participation has varied significantly over time:

• Comparative Turnout: The U.S. ($70.5\%$) trails many democracies like Australia ($89.7\%$), Turkey ($87.1\%$), and Sweden ($84.2\%$), partly because countries like Australia treat voting as a mandatory responsibility enforced by fines.
• Historical Trends: Turnout declined sharply between $1890$ and $1910$ due to "progressive" reforms (literacy tests, registration systems) designed to weaken urban political machines and disenfranchise immigrants and Black Americans.
• Recent Trends: Turnout in presidential elections has risen recently ($59\%$ in 2016; $66\%$ in 2020). Midterms generally see lower turnout ($45$-$50\%$), a pattern called "surge and decline."
• Demographic Predictors of Voting (2022 Data):
  • Education: College graduates ($81.6\%$) vs. some high school ($50.5\%$).
  • Age: Adults over $65$ ($74\%$) vs. those under $29$ ($54\%$ in 2020).
  • Income: Over $\$100,000$ ($86.6\%$) vs. under $\$20,000$ ($59.7\%$).

Electoral Districts and Redistricting

State legislatures and governors are responsible for redrawing district boundaries every $10$ years following the decennial census.

• Gerrymandering: Refers to the manipulation of district maps for political advantage. The name originates from Governor Elbridge Gerry's 1812 map of a salamander-shaped district.
• Legal Protections: The Voting Rights Act (amended 1982) encourages the creation of "majority-minority" districts to ensure representation for historically marginalized groups. However, Blacks and Latinos made up only $24\%$ of the 118th Congress, despite being $32\%$ of the population.
• Partisan Bias: Bias is highest when one party controls both the legislature and the governorship. However, a fair electoral map existed for the 2020 cycle due to decades of court oversight.

Plurality Rule vs. Proportional Representation

• Plurality Rule: Used in the U.S.; favors a two-party system.
• Proportional Representation (PR): Parties win seats in proportion to their vote share ($34\%$ of votes = $34\%$ of seats). PR is used in the U.S. primarily for Democratic presidential primary delegates.
• Duverger’s Law: Formulated by Maurice Duverger (1951), this states that plurality rule creates two-party politics, while proportional representation encourages multi-party systems. This occurs because voters do not want to "waste" votes on small parties, and politicians fear splitting the vote of their ideological allies.

Direct Democracy: Referendum, Initiative, and Recall

While not used at the national level, direct democracy is common in states:

• Referendum: Allows citizens to vote directly on proposed laws or governmental actions ($26$ states). Examples include Proposition 8 in California (2008).
• Initiative: Allows citizens to place a policy proposal on the ballot via petition ($26$ states).
• Recall: Allows voters to remove an official before their term expires ($18$ states). Examples include the 2012 attempt to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

How Voters Decide: Heuristics and Strategies

• Partisan Loyalty: The strongest predictor of voting behavior. Over $90\%$ of partisans support their party's candidate. Over $40\%$ of Americans now identify as independents, though many "lean" toward a party.
• Issues:
  • Retrospective Voting: Voting based on the past performance of an incumbent.
  • Prospective Voting: Voting based on the imagined future performance of a candidate.
  • Spatial Issues: Issues where voters have preferences along a continuum (e.g., tax rates). Candidates tend to converge on the "Median Voter" (Median Voter Theorem).
  • Valence Issues: Issues where everyone wants the same outcome (e.g., low crime, strong economy). Voters judge candidates on their perceived ability to deliver these results.
• Economic Performance: Every additional $1\%$ growth in GDP roughly corresponds to a $1\%$ increase in the vote for the incumbent president's party.

Campaigns and Finance

Campaigns are freewheeling, long organizations designed to inform the public through competition.

• Campaign Finance Law:
  • Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA, 1971): Established contribution limits and the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
  • Table 11.1 Limits (2024): Individuals can give $\$3,300$ to a candidate per election and $\$41,300$ to national party committees.
  • Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA, 2002): Banned "soft money" (unlimited party spending).
• Judicial Rulings:
  • Buckley v. Valeo (1976): Ruled that "money is speech" and struck down limits on candidate spending, though kept contribution limits.
  • Citizens United v. FEC (2010): Struck down limits on independent expenditures by corporations and unions, leading to the rise of Super PACs.
• Incumbency Advantage: Incumbents enjoy a electoral edge, including the "sophomore surge" (an increase of approximately $5\%$ in vote share when running for reelection for the first time). While this advantage reached $10\%$ in the past, it has recently shrunk due to increased polarization.